ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Vdogg]

Man that eye is CLOSE! It's nerve wracking just watching this. I've never seen a storm ride the countours of the land so tightly. I know those folks in SC are sweating bullets right now.

[Kazmit]

Dorian's Wikipedia article says that it had "annular characteristics" while near Grand Bahama. Not sure if I believe that...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Dorian

[Steve]

It's getting super close to the SC Coast. Luckily a hit of dry air came up from the South on the east side (see IR for that).
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar_l ... 1&loop=yes

[supercane4867]

Dorian's Wikipedia article says that it had "annular characteristics" while near Grand Bahama. Not sure if I believe that...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Dorian

There was no annular characteristics, not even close IMO

[toad strangler]

Wobbling towards the coast?

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/71a114b7c9ec03aa307cbd6a20913714cca874050a26dafb1aae79d29b357995.gif

Yeah that's not a friendly eyewall move

[wx98]

Dorian's Wikipedia article says that it had "annular characteristics" while near Grand Bahama. Not sure if I believe that...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Dorian

The source was Advisory 35 Discussion, which said it was a symmetrical cyclone with a 10 nm eye. It didn’t say anything about annular.

[supercane4867]

These Dorian-spawned tornadoes look really intense. Some of them could be EF3+

 https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/1169606092445274113

[Evenstar]

Not sure if it's been said here before, but just a note on people who live at the Outer Banks: they don't evacuate. It's a mentality similar to citizens of the Conch Republic. If you leave, you're not a local.

Wow, that's really dumb. With a direct hit and a storm surge OBX could be literally unsurvivable.

florida keys peeps dont usually evacuate either, some do, look they have a ton of experience with hurricanes like the outer banks folks, they know what to do and when they really feel like they need to evacuate, they are usually correct on staying or leaving but not always. meanwhile we have people that go right into the eye, chasers and media..im not recommending people stay. I have a 10 foot ladder to get on my roof if needed, i would have evacuated for dorian if it was going to make a direct hit or come into a little south like miami...west palm cat 5, no evacuation...to each his own

I get what you're saying, but if my husband (as law enforcement) got hurt (or worse) rescuing someone who chose to ignore mandatory evacuation orders, they would have a vengeful wife to contend with and I'd make Dorian look like a mere puff of wind when I was done with them.

[southerngreen]

Man that eye is CLOSE! It's nerve wracking just watching this. I've never seen a storm ride the countouts of the land so tightly. I know those folks in SC are sweating bullets right now.

I know nhc says NNE, but the latest loop just doesn't have much 'East' in it! IMHO

[Vdogg]

These Dorian-spawned tornadoes look really intense. Some of them could be EF3+

https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/1169606092445274113

I don't understand why these tornadoes are so intense. Usually tropical tornadoes are very weak EF0s or EF1s.

[Vdogg]

MB may just barely escape a direct hit. Wilmington will not be so lucky however.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like it taking a wobble to the coast. probably some land friction tugging on it.

[supercane4867]

These Dorian-spawned tornadoes look really intense. Some of them could be EF3+

https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/1169606092445274113

I don't understand why these tornadoes are so intense. Usually tropical tornadoes are very weak EF0s or EF1s.

Well it's Dorian after all, normality simply doesn't exist in this storm

[supercane4867]

Looks like it taking a wobble to the coast. probably some land friction tugging on it.

If it doesn't start turning NE it's going to make landfall on SC soon...

[p1nheadlarry]

These Dorian-spawned tornadoes look really intense. Some of them could be EF3+

https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/1169606092445274113

I don't understand why these tornadoes are so intense. Usually tropical tornadoes are very weak EF0s or EF1s.

Veering hodograph, especially above 1 km (see helicity values in middle bottom box). Decent CAPE for an approaching hurricane too.

[jlauderdal]

Wow, that's really dumb. With a direct hit and a storm surge OBX could be literally unsurvivable.

florida keys peeps dont usually evacuate either, some do, look they have a ton of experience with hurricanes like the outer banks folks, they know what to do and when they really feel like they need to evacuate, they are usually correct on staying or leaving but not always. meanwhile we have people that go right into the eye, chasers and media..im not recommending people stay. I have a 10 foot ladder to get on my roof if needed, i would have evacuated for dorian if it was going to make a direct hit or come into a little south like miami...west palm cat 5, no evacuation...to each his own

I get what you're saying, but if my husband (as law enforcement) got hurt (or worse) rescuing someone who chose to ignore mandatory evacuation orders, they would have a vengeful wife to contend with and I'd make Dorian look like a mere puff of wind when I was done with them.

law enforcement in south Florida wont go into mandatory evacuation areas until the weather subsides, i am totally on board with that policy but they need to stick to it so that people completely understand that there will be no help in a mandatory evacuation zone

[Vdogg]

That convection blow up on the east side nasty! I think this might be a historic storm for Willmington.

[Jr0d]

MB may just barely escape a direct hit. Wilmington will not be so lucky however.

Judging by the latest satellite and radar, I'd say Myrtle Beach is about to be hammered. Hopefully those in vulnerable areas along the coast took the evacuation orders seriously!

[1900hurricane]

Can someone explain to me what physical processes are going on with these efficient looking rain bands that extend perpendicular to the wind field? They even have a noticeable velocity signature

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/485132024949112855/619041658029342720/Screenshot_20190905-002919.png

They also show much higher KDP than surrounding precipitation.

Those are little convective cells embedded within the bands. They're not very tall like showers (although I hesitate to call them that, that's basically what they are), but they're still helping to mix higher winds aloft down into the boundary layer. They also have higher KDPs because of heavier rains within the convective cells.

[wx98]

These Dorian-spawned tornadoes look really intense. Some of them could be EF3+

https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/1169606092445274113

I don't understand why these tornadoes are so intense. Usually tropical tornadoes are very weak EF0s or EF1s.

One thing is that there is more CAPE over the Carolina coast and plenty of vertical wind shear.