Sciencerocks wrote:This has a decent chance of being the big one this season.
1. Very favorable conditions
2. early enough to make it across still
We will see but some of the models really like it.
Respectfully, I disagree. Within two days low-level easterlies will strengthen and net shear increase as a strong TUTT axis develops to the north of 94L. Hence the ECMWF shows little or no development, whereas the GFS is too aggressive in the long range. Any development will likely wait until the wave axis interacts with an AWB over the subtropical western North Atlantic in the long range (beyond day five). Understandably, many people here are skittish, considering DORIAN and peak season. But every situation is different. What happened before DORIAN had little bearing on what came later; likewise, DORIAN has little bearing on what is to come.