ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

[Highteeld]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019090612/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_5.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019090612/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_6.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019090612/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_7.png

[bqknight]

Looks like most models aren't developing this until around 50/51W - that's where it looks like we'll need to start paying attention.

Also - what is the CTCX model? It outperformed every model in intensity and track according to the below. My Googling says it's the experimental US Navy model. I assume that's not public?

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ta ... /al052019/

Or is there some sort of error in these numbers?

I was able to find out after digging in a little bit. COTC is COAMPS TC that uses the NAVGEM for the initial and boundary conditions while CTCX is COAMPS TC but with GFS for initial and boundary conditions.

Is the COAMPS model public?

[SFLcane]

Euro still silent.

[sma10]

Looking at the model runs, especially the Euro and CMC, it appears that the delay in development is a matter of the system consolidating. Maybe it's more than one element combining together? Bottom line, what consensus exists seem to agree that the development will not occur until 50W, which isn't very good tbh

[RL3AO]

Looks like most models aren't developing this until around 50/51W - that's where it looks like we'll need to start paying attention.

Also - what is the CTCX model? It outperformed every model in intensity and track according to the below. My Googling says it's the experimental US Navy model. I assume that's not public?

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ta ... /al052019/

Or is there some sort of error in these numbers?

I was able to find out after digging in a little bit. COTC is COAMPS TC that uses the NAVGEM for the initial and boundary conditions while CTCX is COAMPS TC but with GFS for initial and boundary conditions.

Is the COAMPS model public?

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc

[bqknight]

I was able to find out after digging in a little bit. COTC is COAMPS TC that uses the NAVGEM for the initial and boundary conditions while CTCX is COAMPS TC but with GFS for initial and boundary conditions.

Is the COAMPS model public?

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc

Thanks! I wonder if this is the COTC or CTCX version...

Only goes out to 120 hours - but looks to be getting its act together as it gets closer to 50W.

[Highteeld]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019090612/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_6.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019090612/ecmwf_uv850_vort_atl_7.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019090612/ecmwf_uv850_vort_eatl_8.png

/posts

[RL3AO]

Is the COAMPS model public?

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc

Thanks! I wonder if this is the COTC or CTCX version...

Only goes out to 120 hours - but looks to be getting its act together as it gets closer to 50W.

I'm honestly not sure. I've never really looked at COAMPS because it was bad. But it looks like one of those models that rapidly changes and upgrades compared to the more public operational models. It did so well with Dorian that I'll probably watch it more closely going forward.

[SFLcane]

Euro going full shutdown mode.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Euro going full shutdown mode.

It's been in full shutdown mode for months.

[SFLcane]

Euro going full shutdown mode.

It's been in full shutdown mode for months.

It seems to have a reasonably favorable large-scale pattern but all the individual systems are way too strung out and die.

[RL3AO]

The lack of model support continues to worry me. A quick developer would easily recurve right now. If it waits to develop closer to the islands or in the Caribbean then watch out.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Models that show development: GFS, CMC, HWRF, HMON.

Models that do not: ECMWF, UKMET.

We'll see what the 12z UKMET shows.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1170055781431091200

[aperson]

Bearish velocity potential (MJO-related) maybe?

[bqknight]

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc

Thanks! I wonder if this is the COTC or CTCX version...

Only goes out to 120 hours - but looks to be getting its act together as it gets closer to 50W.

I'm honestly not sure. I've never really looked at COAMPS because it was bad. But it looks like one of those models that rapidly changes and upgrades compared to the more public operational models. It did so well with Dorian that I'll probably watch it more closely going forward.

I remember the same - that's why I was wondering if for some reason those numbers may be off. Interesting...

[sma10]

Models that show development: GFS, CMC, HWRF, HMON.

Models that do not: ECMWF, UKMET.

We'll see what the 12z UKMET shows.

Ukmet does develop. Euro is the only major model that does not

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Models that show development: GFS, CMC, HWRF, HMON.

Models that do not: ECMWF, UKMET.

We'll see what the 12z UKMET shows.

Ukmet does develop. Euro is the only major model that does not

Looked very weak from what I saw, maybe I was looking at an outdated run...

[Kingarabian]

Models that show development: GFS, CMC, HWRF, HMON.

Models that do not: ECMWF, UKMET.

We'll see what the 12z UKMET shows.

Ukmet does develop. Euro is the only major model that does not

Looked very weak from what I saw, maybe I was looking at an outdated run...

Yeah its very weak on the UKMET @ 1010mb. Maybe on the 00z run it'll develop it more.

[toad strangler]

Euro doesn't develop but does carry vorticity all the way to the LA's and pops a weak L at 240 hours with tons of 500 mb HP floating about.. That's the worrisome scenario.