ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z UKMET actually does show some development, way more than the ECMWF in any case. Weak TS.

[RL3AO]

Thanks! I wonder if this is the COTC or CTCX version...

Only goes out to 120 hours - but looks to be getting its act together as it gets closer to 50W.

I'm honestly not sure. I've never really looked at COAMPS because it was bad. But it looks like one of those models that rapidly changes and upgrades compared to the more public operational models. It did so well with Dorian that I'll probably watch it more closely going forward.

I remember the same - that's why I was wondering if for some reason those numbers may be off. Interesting...

It wasn't an error. It did very well.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I'm honestly not sure. I've never really looked at COAMPS because it was bad. But it looks like one of those models that rapidly changes and upgrades compared to the more public operational models. It did so well with Dorian that I'll probably watch it more closely going forward.

I remember the same - that's why I was wondering if for some reason those numbers may be off. Interesting...

It wasn't an error. It did very well.

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps_docs/codta/tc_vrf/2019/mids/al052019.CTCX_vrf.trks.png

That's actually kind of incredible. Any chance there's a way to view this model when it's being run during an active storm?

[sma10]

Ukmet does develop. Euro is the only major model that does not

Looked very weak from what I saw, maybe I was looking at an outdated run...

Yeah its very weak on the UKMET @ 1010mb. Maybe on the 00z run it'll develop it more.

It's really not that far out of alignment with the other models.
The models basic story seems to be, sit back a while, as we will not see any development at all for the next several days. 50W is when the action may begin

[Kingarabian]

Looked very weak from what I saw, maybe I was looking at an outdated run...

Yeah its very weak on the UKMET @ 1010mb. Maybe on the 00z run it'll develop it more.

It's really not that far out of alignment with the other models.
The models basic story seems to be, sit back a while, as we will not see any development at all for the next several days. 50W is when the action may begin

Yeah I agree. UKMET is almost as strong as the CMC @ 144 hours. Also interesting that the GFS-Legacy doesn't develop it.

[SFLcane]

GFS correcting towards the Euro.

[AxaltaRacing24]

GFS correcting towards the Euro.

Hard to say "correcting." There is still a very good chance that this develops in the next 7 days despite what the models say.

[Kingarabian]

GFS correcting towards the Euro.

Honestly we just need to wait 5-6 days until it reaches the islands. We won't know until then despite what the models show or not showing.

[CyclonicFury]

GFS correcting towards the Euro.

Hard to say "correcting." There is still a very good chance that this develops in the next 7 days despite what the models say.

Agreed. It's way too early to just say it's "correcting" to the ECMWF when the NHC still gives this a high chance of development. We'll see how things look in a few days.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

GFS correcting towards the Euro.

Really hard for me to see the Euro being correct here, having struggled multiple times in the past with this setup (small storm, high pressure environment), but I guess we'll see. Doesn't show any significant development in the Atlantic for nearly two weeks. I really doubt that, even in 2013 we saw some development.

EDIT: GFS develops the wave immediately behind 94L though, which might be why 94L struggles on this run.

[TheStormExpert]

GFS and Euro both like the wave behind 94L now. 94L still could develop but it might not amount to much.

[AutoPenalti]

I don’t think GFS losing the system for one run signifies correction towards the Euro...

[sma10]

GFS correcting towards the Euro.

Really too early to make a judgment like that. I think the models are depicting a complicated scenario around 50-55W, possibly with two competing systems

[Hammy]

GFS correcting towards the Euro.

Really too early to make a judgment like that. I think the models are depicting a complicated scenario around 50-55W, possibly with two competing systems

That would certainly make sense, especially given the GEM's looping around. The question at the moment is likely which wave between 94L and the one behind it will actually develop--the models that are showing no development are likely having trouble resolving the situation.

[sma10]

GFS correcting towards the Euro.

Really too early to make a judgment like that. I think the models are depicting a complicated scenario around 50-55W, possibly with two competing systems

That would certainly make sense, especially given the GEM's looping around. The question at the moment is likely which wave between 94L and the one behind it will actually develop--the models that are showing no development are likely having trouble resolving the situation.

Agreed. Even the Euro, which is really the only model showing zilch, has a strong signature in the ensembles of development in the longer range

[1900hurricane]

I remember the same - that's why I was wondering if for some reason those numbers may be off. Interesting...

It wasn't an error. It did very well.

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps_docs/codta/tc_vrf/2019/mids/al052019.CTCX_vrf.trks.png

That's actually kind of incredible. Any chance there's a way to view this model when it's being run during an active storm?

RAL plots it on its page.

RAL Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project

[lando]

00z GFS develops wave behind it, sends it to SE bahamas and OTS
00z CMC much further south, develops humberto into a caribbean rider cruising through the lesser antilles...could be a problem down the line
00z Icon develops one behind it

zero on euro

[hurricaneCW]

Good chance this one's a low rider, Caribbean perhaps, I expect models to show more development down the road.

The next wave after this does get developed by the GFS/Euro and it'll likely have a further north track though could still get pretty close to the US given broad eastern to Atlantic ridging in place.

Both will be threats starting late next week.

[Hurricaneman]

00z GFS develops wave behind it, sends it to SE bahamas and OTS
00z CMC much further south, develops humberto into a caribbean rider cruising through the lesser antilles...could be a problem down the line
00z Icon develops one behind it

zero on euro

Euro is also the wave behind

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z GFS develops wave behind it, sends it to SE bahamas and OTS
00z CMC much further south, develops humberto into a caribbean rider cruising through the lesser antilles...could be a problem down the line
00z Icon develops one behind it

zero on euro

00z ECMWF actually does develop it into a tropical storm... in the Gulf of Mexico.