WPAC: FAXAI - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

[Hayabusa]

JTWC upped to 105 kt near Tokyo ...

14W FAXAI 190907 0600 27.9N 143.2E WPAC 85 967

2019SEP07 064000 4.6 968.5 79.6 4.4 4.9 5.3 0.5T/hour ON OFF OFF OFF -19.63 -67.45 EYE 9 IR 35.5 28.02 -143.10 ARCHER HIM-8 32.8

[euro6208]

Massive internal change.

[Hayabusa]

2019SEP07 071000 4.6 968.5 79.6 4.5 4.9 6.2 0.5T/hour ON OFF OFF OFF -2.39 -72.60 EYE 10 IR 35.5 28.03 -142.97 ARCHER HIM-8 32.8

[Hayabusa]

2019SEP07 091000 5.3 955.0 97.2 5.3 5.9 6.4 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 10.72 -72.76 EYE 12 IR 35.5 28.41 -142.54 ARCHER HIM-8 33.2

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 09070728
SATCON: MSLP = 966 hPa MSW = 94 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 93.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 91 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 145 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 6.7 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 955 hPa 97 knots Scene: CDO Date: SEP070840
CIMSS AMSU: 942 hPa 124 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 09070728
ATMS: 991.0 hPa 61.0 knots Date: 09060236
SSMIS: 992.1 hPa 56.4 knots Date: 09060236
CIRA ATMS: 978 hPa 70 knots Date: 09061555

TY 1915 (Faxai)
Issued at 09:50 UTC, 7 September 2019

<Analysis at 09 UTC, 7 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N28°20' (28.3°)
E142°40' (142.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 30 km/h (16 kt)
Central pressure 960 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 90 km (50 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 300 km (160 NM)
SW 190 km (100 NM)

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 479 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TY 14W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED (40
KNOTS) OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM 45 KTS TO 85 KTS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SYMMETRIC EYEWALL
SURROUNDING A CLOUD-FILLED 15 NM EYE FEATURE, SUPPORTING THE HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 85 KTS
IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW AND T4.5/77KTS
FROM RJTD. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF
LOW (5-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) VALUES. HOWEVER, THESE ARE OFFSET SLIGHTLY
BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW WHICH IS BEING LIMITED BY THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A TRANSIENT UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST. TY 14W IS
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 12, TY 14W WILL MAINTAIN ITS NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED DEEP-LAYER STR. BETWEEN
TAUS 24 AND 36, THE SYSTEM WILL SLOW AS IT TURNS NORTHWARD AND
ROUNDS THE STR AXIS PRIOR TO LANDFALL SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO AROUND TAU
30. FOLLOWING THIS, TY 14W WILL SHIFT TO A NORTHEASTWARD TRACK,
ACCELERATING AFTER TRANSITING BACK OVER WATER. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW VWS AND WARM SST.
MODELS MAINTAIN DEVELOPMENT OF THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM WHICH WILL INDUCE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
AND RESULT IN A SLOWING OF THE SYSTEM'S INTENSIFICATION. OUTFLOW
WILL REESTABLISH AFTER THIS ANTICYCLONE TRANSITS TO THE NORTHEAST BY
TAU 12, ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER PERIOD OF ENHANCED INTENSIFICATION JUST
PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY IN THE PEAK
INTENSITY WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM EXITS
BACK OVER THE PACIFIC WHERE IT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER SSTS AND
INCREASING VWS, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AT TAU 48. TY 14W WILL BECOME
EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLY FLOW BY TAU 72 AND COMPLETE ETT. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, WITH NAVGEM AS A NORTHERLY OUTLIER AND GFS AS A SOUTHERLY
OUTLIER, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[Highteeld]

14W FAXAI 190907 1200 28.9N 141.8E WPAC 105 952

[Highteeld]

14W FAXAI 190907 1200 28.9N 141.8E WPAC 105 952

This would be a 50 knot RI btw

14W FAXAI 190907 1200 28.9N 141.8E WPAC 105 952
14W FAXAI 190907 0600 27.9N 143.2E WPAC 90 963
14W FAXAI 190907 0000 26.7N 144.9E WPAC 75 976
14W FAXAI 190906 1800 25.6N 146.4E WPAC 65 983
14W FAXAI 190906 1200 24.7N 148.1E WPAC 55 991

[mrbagyo]

An almost non-existent poleward outflow has put Faxai's intensification into a halt.

[1900hurricane]

Looks like combo flow from Lingling's outflow and the mid-latitude jet cut it off. Looks like it's strengthening the lead outflow channel though.

[1900hurricane]

Also looks like JTWC brought wind radii back a little based on ASCAT data (which finally hit).

WP, 14, 2019090712, , BEST, 0, 289N, 1418E, 105, 952, TY, 34, NEQ, 120, 95, 55, 75, 1006, 150, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, , 0, 0, FAXAI, D,
WP, 14, 2019090712, , BEST, 0, 289N, 1418E, 105, 952, TY, 50, NEQ, 40, 40, 30, 30, 1006, 150, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, , 0, 0, FAXAI, D,
WP, 14, 2019090712, , BEST, 0, 289N, 1418E, 105, 952, TY, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 20, 20, 1006, 150, 5, 0, 10, W, 0, , 0, 0, FAXAI, D,

Month Day Hour V RMW avg r34 avg r50 avg r64 IKE SDP Track IKE
9 6 18 65 45 95 45 32 23.258 2.7 144.363
9 7 0 75 5 100 45 22 28.745 3.0 173.108
9 7 6 90 5 95 46 25 26.907 2.9 200.014
9 7 12 105 5 86 35 20 21.156 2.6 221.171

[Ptarmigan]

Tyhoon Faxai is a rather small typhoon. Looks like Japan is going to be impacted by it.

[1900hurricane]

Might actually be stashing a lot of outflow in the subsident regions around it. The eye looks like it's trying to clear again.

[1900hurricane]

Give me 115 kt for 18Z.

[NotoSans]

JMA forecast peak is 960mb/80kt. Likely too conservative.
 https://twitter.com/philipslau681/status/1170385251576606720

[NotoSans]

CI5.5 from JMA for 18Z. Likely remain at 960mb/80kt for the upcoming advisory.

[Hayabusa]

14W FAXAI 190907 1800 29.9N 140.8E WPAC 115 942

[1900hurricane]

The CDO makes Faxai look almost annular, but microwave imagery shows plenty of bands hiding beneath the CDO of the tightly wound system.

[1900hurricane]

I would hold at 115 kt at 00Z. Very rare to get a storm of this intensity this far north. Last one was Songda '16, but that one was shooting off to the northeast. As a NAtl comparison, this is at about Savanah's latitude, with Tokyo at about the same latitude of NC's Outer Banks.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 14W (FAXAI) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 14W (FAXAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 329 NM SOUTH OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED A DEEP COMPACT STRUCTURE AND A SHARPLY
OUTLINED 10-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE
NEAR-SURFACE 071617Z AMSR2 36GHZ SCAN THAT LINED UP JUST BEHIND THE
EIR EYE THAT IS TILTED SLIGHTLY FORWARD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
115KTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.0/115KTS AND
REFLECTS THE SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS OF LOW (5-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ENHANCED BY A STORM MOTION THAT IS IN-PHASE WITH UPPER LEVEL WIND
FLOW, GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST) VALUES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY FAXAI WILL CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK AS THE STR REMAINS
AS THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. AFTER TAU
12, THE TRACK WILL BECOME MORE POLEWARD AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO ROUND
THE STR AXIS, CRESTING IT NEAR TAU 12. JUST BEFORE TAU 12, TY 14W
WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER HONSHU NEAR YOKOSUKA. AFTERWARD, IT WILL
ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD BACK INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN, ALBEIT WITH
COOLER SSTS. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE
MODEST INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 120KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARD,
INCREASING VWS AND DIMINISHING OUTFLOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM TO 95KTS BY LANDFALL. CONCURRENTLY AFTER TAU 24, TY 14W WILL
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT ENTERS THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE, COMPLETING ETT BY TAU 36, AND BY TAU 48, WILL BE REDUCED TO A
45-KT COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD. MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN