ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

As of 12Z, Dorian has been a tropical storm for two weeks and a hurricane for ten days.

Des Name Vmax ACE PDI TS Days C1 Days C3 Days C4 Days C5 Days 7.5 Days
05L DORIAN 160 47.6225 52.319625 14.00 10.00 4.75 3.25 1.00 0.50

[Chris_in_Tampa]

The view at 10:10am EDT at the Georges Bank buoy:

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Winds are rather light here near St. Stephen NB (so far) but the rain is blindingly heavy.

Here is a link to the local doppler radar -

https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=cbw&product=N0R&loop=no

The best composite I can find of the entire region -

http://s3.amazonaws.com/almanac/intellicast/radaramap-ne.jpg

[afswo]

Many models bring the pressure down into the 940-945 range and I don't think that is unrealistic at all.

I'm way off in Eastern Cape Breton going to be about 200 KM from the center at it's closest approach I would gander. I'm hoping for a slight tick East so I can get some hurricane forced wind gusts...but unless it gets incredibly large I think that's pretty unlikely.

The Mainland is going to get battered.

Most people don't wish hurricane-force winds upon themselves, usually for good reasons. Perhaps consult with the survivors in the Bahamas.

You are correct, most people do not wish that upon themselves. With that said, many of us who do this for a living are at awe of the power of nature, what this rock we call Earth and its atmosphere can produce.

I have experienced 100+ mph winds, tornadoes, earthquakes, devastating severe weather outbreaks where whole communities were wiped off the face of Earth in minutes. Do I wish them on anyone? No, not in this or any other lifetime.

Are they an experience for the sake of pure science that I would wish I had missed? No. I don't want the destruction, the lives lost. Experiencing one means facing the reality of another.

Bob Ryan, a broadcast meteorologist in Washington, DC once opined "...Imagine a system on a rotating sphere that is 8,000 miles wide, consists of different materials, different gases that have different properties, heated by a nuclear reactor 93 million miles away. Then, just to make life interesting, this sphere is oriented such that, as it revolves around the nuclear reactor, it is heated differently at different locations at different times of the year. Then, someone is asked to watch the mixture of gases, a fluid only 20 miles deep, that covers an area of 250 million square miles, and to predict the state of that fluid at one point on the sphere two days from now. This is the problem weather forecasters face..."

I believe that PavelGaborik10 wanted what for some is a once in a lifetime experience. But as with many once in a lifetime experiences, there would possibly be a trade off.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Well, got power back late last night, after a near miss from Dorian here NC South of Wilmington. Biggest surprise for me, is to see that Dorian is still holding on to Cat 1 status. Dorian really seemed to be falling apart as he was passing us by.

[EquusStorm]

Dorian's over 45 ACE already which beats Maria and Jose, highly impressive historic storm.

[CrazyC83]

Baccaro Point, NS (near the southern tip) is now sustained at 58 mph and gusting to 72 mph.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Sun is out at the Georges Bank buoy.

11:10am EDT:



12:10pm EDT:



For comparison, this was a picture from yesterday morning at 9:10am EDT:

[storm_in_a_teacup]

I'm way off in Eastern Cape Breton going to be about 200 KM from the center at it's closest approach I would gander. I'm hoping for a slight tick East so I can get some hurricane forced wind gusts...but unless it gets incredibly large I think that's pretty unlikely.

The Mainland is going to get battered.

Most people don't wish hurricane-force winds upon themselves, usually for good reasons. Perhaps consult with the survivors in the Bahamas.

You are correct, most people do not wish that upon themselves. With that said, many of us who do this for a living are at awe of the power of nature, what this rock we call Earth and its atmosphere can produce.

I have experienced 100+ mph winds, tornadoes, earthquakes, devastating severe weather outbreaks where whole communities were wiped off the face of Earth in minutes. Do I wish them on anyone? No, not in this or any other lifetime.

Are they an experience for the sake of pure science that I would wish I had missed? No. I don't want the destruction, the lives lost. Experiencing one means facing the reality of another.

Bob Ryan, a broadcast meteorologist in Washington, DC once opined "...Imagine a system on a rotating sphere that is 8,000 miles wide, consists of different materials, different gases that have different properties, heated by a nuclear reactor 93 million miles away. Then, just to make life interesting, this sphere is oriented such that, as it revolves around the nuclear reactor, it is heated differently at different locations at different times of the year. Then, someone is asked to watch the mixture of gases, a fluid only 20 miles deep, that covers an area of 250 million square miles, and to predict the state of that fluid at one point on the sphere two days from now. This is the problem weather forecasters face..."

I believe that PavelGaborik10 wanted what for some is a once in a lifetime experience. But as with many once in a lifetime experiences, there would possibly be a trade off.

Alas, this is why I am in high energy astrophysics instead of meteorology like I originally thought I would be. I like being able to get excited about all the powerful and destructive events as much as I want

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Typical nor'easter conditions where I am right now. Heavy rain and gusty winds. Strongest gust I've recorded is about 35 mph. Arthur in 2014 was much worse (sustained winds around 50 mph gusts to 85 mph). We'll see what happens as the afternoon turns into evening. *crosses fingers*

[StruThiO]

...SATELLITE WIND DATA INDICATE THAT DORIAN IS STRONGER THAN SHOWN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING...

Hurricane Dorian Special Discussion Number 58
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

This special advisory is being issued instead of the normal
intermediate advisory to update the intensity and wind radii of
Dorian. A recent ASCAT-B overpass shows a large area of hurricane-
force winds southwest and south of the center of Dorian, with many
vectors of 80 kt or more. This area of wind is likely due to
baroclinic effects during the ongoing extratropical transition.
The initial intensity is being increased to 85 kt and the 12-h
intensity to 75 kt, after which the forecast intensities are the
same as in the previous advisory. Some changes were also made to
the initial and 12-h wind radii based on the scatterometer data.

There is no change to the forecast track from the previous advisory.

[AnnularCane]

Sometimes I could swear Dorian must be reading the discussions.

[1900hurricane]

Looks mostly in the sting jet area. That thing is hairy.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1170382624914845697




 https://twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1170383324055056389

[CrazyC83]

This looks as strong as, or stronger than, Juan in terms of wind intensity - but affecting a much larger area. This could very well be the most damaging storm in Canada since 1954.

[1900hurricane]

Sting jet is still easily observable on visible imagery.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Sting jet is still easily observable on visible imagery.

https://i.imgur.com/pIjnRvF.gif

Do sting jets only occur with tropical cyclones transitioning to extra tropical or do they also occur with regular extra tropical storms too?

[1900hurricane]

Sting jet is still easily observable on visible imagery.

https://i.imgur.com/pIjnRvF.gif

Do sting jets only occur with tropical cyclones transitioning to extra tropical or do they also occur with regular extra tropical storms too?

Regular extratropical cyclones too. Many of the damaging European Windstorms feature sting jets, and it is believed that most of the damage from the 1962 Columbus Day Storm was also from a sting jet. Sting jets also don't occur with every extratropical cyclone, just a few that develop the dynamics for it.

[AnnularCane]

And for that matter, what is a sting jet?

[storm_in_a_teacup]

And for that matter, what is a sting jet?

Yeah I would like to know the answer to this question too, if this isn’t too hard to answer. I have a bad feeling I won’t understand the jargon in all the papers that will come up in my search results.

EDIT: there is a Wikipedia page on it. Apparently it has something to do with a cold front fracturing?...I didn’t even realize that was a thing that happened.

EDIT 2: oh wait the cold front fracturing is the whole warm seclusion thing...sorry for my complete ignorance of literally everything.