Trough of Low Pressure north of the Greater Antilles (Is INVEST 95L)

[Aric Dunn]

This appears to be the wave that the models are showing possibly trying to develop near the bahamas in 3 to 5 days.

It has a good deal of vorticity with it and convection should start to build under this sheared divergent flow aloft currently so chances will likely start going up from the NHC soon as it will be back in the 5 day range.

[northjaxpro]

Shear will become much more conducive for development within the next couple of days.

Latest 12Z GFS continues to show this developing.as it approaches the Bahamas late this week and then moving.across North Florida next weekend

This is not what we need to see to say the least, but EURO and GFS are in agreement of a potential TC.

We must stay closely monitored obviously to this!!

[LarryWx]

:uarrow: Shear will become much more conducive for development within the next couple of days.

Latest 12Z GFS continues to show this developing.as it approaches the Bahamas late this week and then moving.across North Florida next weekend

This is not what we need to see to say the least, but EURO and GFS are in agreement of a potential TC.

We must stay closely monitored obviously to this!!

I agree based on steering being favorable to bringing it into the SE. I admit that this caught me by surprise. However, the good news is that the Bahamas in 5-6 days are projected to have moderate SE to SSW shear then unlike the ideal conditions for Dorian. So, that hopefully would mean only slow development.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the GFS legacy shows some development as it approaches the SE US / Florida coast:

[gatorcane]

And the GFS nearly shows development as it moves into the east coast of Florida. I like to track the 850mb vorticity because the models are not good with genesis beyond about 4-5 days sometimes. We could go from one run with the below to the next run with something much more:

[northjaxpro]

:uarrow: Shear will become much more conducive for development within the next couple of days.

Latest 12Z GFS continues to show this developing.as it approaches the Bahamas late this week and then moving.across North Florida next weekend

This is not what we need to see to say the least, but EURO and GFS are in agreement of a potential TC.

We must stay closely monitored obviously to this!!

I agree based on steering being favorable to bringing it into the SE. I admit that this caught me by surprise. However, the good news is that the Bahamas in 5-6 days are projected to have moderate SE to SSW shear then unlike the ideal conditions for Dorian. So, that hopefully would mean only slow development.

Let us hope you are right about that Larry.regarding shear increasing again by next weekend!!!!!

[LarryWx]

:uarrow: Shear will become much more conducive for development within the next couple of days.

Latest 12Z GFS continues to show this developing.as it approaches the Bahamas late this week and then moving.across North Florida next weekend

This is not what we need to see to say the least, but EURO and GFS are in agreement of a potential TC.

We must stay closely monitored obviously to this!!

I agree based on steering being favorable to bringing it into the SE. I admit that this caught me by surprise. However, the good news is that the Bahamas in 5-6 days are projected to have moderate SE to SSW shear then unlike the ideal conditions for Dorian. So, that hopefully would mean only slow development.

Let us hope you are right about that Larry.regarding shear increasing again by next weekend!!!!!

The 12Z ICON has this hitting far NE FL/SE GA as a weak low a week from tomorrow moving NW.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the the system for possible genesis near Bahamas a week from now is showing up just NE of Lesser Antilles:

[northjaxpro]

I agree based on steering being favorable to bringing it into the SE. I admit that this caught me by surprise. However, the good news is that the Bahamas in 5-6 days are projected to have moderate SE to SSW shear then unlike the ideal conditions for Dorian. So, that hopefully would mean only slow development.

Let us hope you are right about that Larry.regarding shear increasing again by next weekend!!!!!

The 12Z ICON has this hitting far NE FL/SE GA as a weak low a week from tomorrow moving NW.

I awaiting the UKMET to see what it is showing. I am not real high on the ICON yet.

[GCANE]

Something's here.
Shear-induced convection, but not washing out.
Can clearly see east and west LL winds converging on the southern end of the convection.

[Aric Dunn]

Something's here.
Shear-induced convection, but not washing out.
Can clearly see east and west LL winds converging on the southern end of the convection.


https://i.imgur.com/2xuB4uj.gif

Yep thats what I mentioned earlier with the highly divergent flow aloft enhancing convection. May assist in getting the low levels more defined.

[northjaxpro]

Something's here.
Shear-induced convection, but not washing out.
Can clearly see east and west LL winds converging on the southern end of the convection.


https://i.imgur.com/2xuB4uj.gif

Yes indeed GCANE I am with you about this. We iin all likelihood will have an invest tagged here real soon.

[Aric Dunn]

Well this is interesting.. I was looking at the SAT loop and noticed the flow over the center and NE Islands and even eastern carrib has switched from easterly to west and SW. thats hard to do in this part of the atlantic.

must be a larger low pressure to the north than we see. elongated but there.

can any of the islanders confirm the odd wind direction ?




notice the flow is west to east over the NE islands.

[floridasun78]

shear need drop dont see that happing yet their no chance any thing forming that area it shear area no invest next day or two

[floridasun78]

Well this is interesting.. I was looking at the SAT loop and noticed the flow over the center and NE Islands and even eastern carrib has switched from easterly to west and SW. thats hard to do in this part of the atlantic.

must be a larger low pressure to the north than we see. elongated but there.

can any of the islanders confirm the odd wind direction ?

https://i.ibb.co/b2Kgbtf/Capture.png


notice the flow is west to east over the NE islands.


https://i.ibb.co/4N4p6Hr/10.gif

look shear coming from ne that not lighting up

[GCANE]

[LarryWx]

Let us hope you are right about that Larry.regarding shear increasing again by next weekend!!!!!

The 12Z ICON has this hitting far NE FL/SE GA as a weak low a week from tomorrow moving NW.

I awaiting the UKMET to see what it is showing. I am not real high on the ICON yet.

12Z UK has a weak low coming into Daytona day 7 with ~1-3" of rain for the NE FL/far SE GA coast. Also, although the 12Z Euro has no closed low and only a wave coming into FL Sat, the EPS has a few actual TCs, including one H, coming into about the same area day 7.

What all of this is telling me is that unlike for the very far out consensus for 94L and the subsequent wave, both of which MAY very well recurve safely OTS or threaten the NC to NE US/SE Canada corridor, there is a pretty high chance due to strong consensus for some tropical entity and maybe a TC originating from the wave now near the LAs to come into the FL-SC corridor moving WNW to NW, especially FL-SC, ~Saturday. Hopefully it would be fairly weak based on forecasted moderate shear nearby (in total contrast to the very light shear around Dorian), but that's not set in stone since SSTs are very warm, dewpoints are projected to be 72+ (so pretty moist), there's a pretty big high to the north inducing sfc convergence to its south, and shear is not projected to be strong W shear from westerlies dipping down but rather moderate S to SE shear in the Bahamas on its approach between an upper high to its E and an upper low in the GOM.

[northjaxpro]

The 12Z ICON has this hitting far NE FL/SE GA as a weak low a week from tomorrow moving NW.

I awaiting the UKMET to see what it is showing. I am not real high on the ICON yet.

12Z UK has a weak low coming into Daytona day 7 with ~1-3" of rain for the NE FL/far SE GA coast. Also, although the 12Z Euro has no closed low and only a wave coming into FL Sat, the EPS has a few actual TCs, including one H, coming into about the same area day 7.

What all of this is telling me is that unlike for the very far out consensus for 94L and the subsequent wave, both of which MAY very well recurve safely OTS or threaten the NC to NE US/SE Canada corridor, there is a pretty high chance due to strong consensus for some tropical entity and maybe a TC originating from the wave now near the LAs to come into the FL-SC corridor moving WNW to NW, especially FL-SC, ~Saturday. Hopefully it would be fairly weak based on forecasted moderate shear nearby (in total contrast to the very light shear around Dorian), but that's not set in stone since SSTs are very warm, dewpoints are projected to be 72+ (so pretty moist), there's a pretty big high to the north inducing sfc convergence to its south, and shear is not projected to be strong W shear from westerlies dipping down but rather moderate S to SE shear in the Bahamas on its approach between an upper high to its E and an upper low in the GOM.

Yeah, I would think that conditions will be at least marginal for development once the system gets into the Bahamas. However, forecast shear in many aspects is difficult even 2-3 days away, let alone one week out.

One thing is just about certain: EURO, GFS actually develop this into a potential TC and UKMET develops this for now as a weak Low or TD off Jacksonville next weekend. ICON does as well.

Pretty good model support on seeing something developing this upcoming week. An Invest designation is bound to take place very soon.

[cycloneye]

The member who made this thread has the responsability to edit the title as the system in question moves.I edited the title with the correct location.

[northjaxpro]

The member who made this thread has the responsability to edit the title as the system in question moves.I edited the title with the correct location.

https://i.imgur.com/2zGAwnt.gif

Thanks Cycloneye for making this much needed correction on the thread title!!!