Trough of Low Pressure north of the Greater Antilles (Is INVEST 95L)

[Steve]

Icon takes what I think might be this across Florida and ends up as a TS hitting around Pascagoula. That’s fairly similar to the EC 00z which migrated low pressure similarly.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=48

[cycloneye]

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles north and northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is
associated with a trough of low pressure. Strong upper-level winds
are expected to prevent the development of this system during the
next few days while it moves west-northwestward to the north of the
Leeward Islands and Puerto Rico. By mid week, environmental
conditions could become more conducive for development when the
disturbance reaches the southwestern Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro is a little stronger and further north with this vs the 0Z Euro. It is still open at 120 just E of FL but closer to closing off there. Let's see what this does as it heads to the Gulf. But before then, this results in a windy day over NE FL/SE GA and 1.75" of rain for JAX.

Edit: Still a weak low in the NW GOM but not as weak as the 0Z run had.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Could see something like TS Gordon last year out of this.

[gatorcane]

Seems there is a nice spin at 60W. If this works it way to the surface, maybe we will see a quicker spin up than even models are showing?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[xironman]

Shear seems to be relaxing

[LarryWx]

Link to the 12Z Euro ensemble, which shows a few members tracking into the SE US (FL-NC) and some of those then in central FL and further south then moving into the GOM:

viewtopic.php?p=2775943#p2775943

Ignore those members with Ls further east to the north of and inside the Caribbean as those are from the system now in W Africa.

[Steve]

NAM has it coalescing in the Central Bahamas at 84 hours so Thursday 8am EDT

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 90900&fh=0

[NDG]

Very complex system here, according to the Euro it will be interacting with an ULL/trough all the way west until it gets to the eastern GOM, it will be a sheared system but any little variance of the ULL position would make a big difference in how organized it becomes down the road. This system will bring rains back to FL this weekend, 95 degrees wx since Dorian left our area has dried up things really quick.

[northjaxpro]

Very complex system here, according to the Euro it will be interacting with an ULL/trough all the way west until it gets to the eastern GOM, it will be a sheared system but any little variance of the ULL position would make a big difference in how organized it becomes down the road. This system will bring rains back to FL this weekend, 95 degrees wx since Dorian left our area has dried up things really quick.

Yeah, can see the open wave/surface trough quite nicely on satelitte imagery this morning to the northeast of Hispaniola.

The area is now just getting ready to enter into a much better conducive environment with lighter wind shear and you will see convection begin to fire up beginning today.

We still have to watch this closely. We all are well aware how quickly areas of vorticity in this region of the basin can quickly spin up, epecially from Wednesday through the rest of the week into the weekend.

[GCANE]

Winds are changing quickly in this area.
Seeing a nice wave kink just off shore NE DR.
On the west side of an UL Trof running from PR to the NE.

[Dean4Storms]

Winds are changing quickly in this area.
Seeing a nice wave kink just off shore NE DR.
On the west side of an UL Trof running from PR to the NE.

Yea, on WV imagery you can see a nice 500mb vort spinning away over PR. Don't see much in the way of dry air either.

[LarryWx]

In addition to any unexpected genesis from 94L being a high risk to the CONUS, any genesis from this would almost certainly be CONUS bound as the door is wide open over the next week or so.

[AtlanticWind]

Looks like system starting to separate from the upper low

[LarryWx]

The 12Z ICON is still another of its runs with weak surface cyclogenesis over the Bahamas around Thu night fwiw. I know it is hard to trust this model. That’s why I said fwiw. The GFS and Euro recently haven’tbeen doing as much. Let’s see if the 12Z GFS continues that way or else if it does something like the ICON.

[northjaxpro]

The 12Z ICON is still another of its runs with weak surface cyclogenesis over the Bahamas around Thu night fwiw. I know it is hard to trust this model. That’s why I said fwiw. The GFS and Euro recently haven’tbeen doing as much. Let’s see if the 12Z GFS continues that way or else if it does something like the ICON.

I forgot to check the recent UKMET runs. Has it showed any more on this system?

[northjaxpro]

Latest 12Z EURO run consolidates the Low over the Central Bahamas on Friday, then moves W/NW across Central Florida on Saturday and reaches the GOM and moves northwest, and strengthens as it moves slowly into Apalachee Bay by Sunday evening. The system drifts slowly NW to landfall as TS near Panama City next Tuesday evening on this particular run.

[South Texas Storms]

Latest 12Z EURO run consolidates the Low over the Central Bahamas on Friday, then moves W/NW across Central Florida on Saturday and reaches the GOM and moves northwest, and strengthens as it moves slowly into Apalachee Bay by Sunday evening. The system drifts slowly NW to landfall as TS near Panama City Tuesday evening on this particular run.

12z Euro hasn't run yet. It's about to start here in a few minutes.

[northjaxpro]

Latest 12Z EURO run consolidates the Low over the Central Bahamas on Friday, then moves W/NW across Central Florida on Saturday and reaches the GOM and moves northwest, and strengthens as it moves slowly into Apalachee Bay by Sunday evening. The system drifts slowly NW to landfall as TS near Panama City Tuesday evening on this particular run.

12z Euro hasn't run yet. It's about to start here in a few minutes.

Oops Sorry I am looking at 00Z EURO from last night. My error. I am just getting going for today and I did not pay attention to the run time. Sorry about that gang.

[LarryWx]

The 12Z ICON is still another of its runs with weak surface cyclogenesis over the Bahamas around Thu night fwiw. I know it is hard to trust this model. That’s why I said fwiw. The GFS and Euro recently haven’tbeen doing as much. Let’s see if the 12Z GFS continues that way or else if it does something like the ICON.

I forgot to check the recent UKMET runs. Has it showed any more on this system?

1. Hey Jax. I haven't seen the 12Z yet, but the 0Z has no sfc low til a weak one forms in the NW GOM.

2. The 12Z Euro still has pretty much nothing in the way of a sfc low. However, it still has plentiful and beneficial rain for FL into SE GA for Fri-Sun.