2019 Indicators: SST'S / Sal / MSLP / Steering / Shear / Instability (See updated graphics at first post)

[SconnieCane]

Nice to see now that Dorian's finally off the board, we're back to the full range of posts from "Holy look at those SSTs" to "It was a fluke, cancel the rest of the season."

[NDG]

EPS weeklies have sort of pushed back that favorable "rising air branch" and don't really show it situating until September 20. It's mostly above average +VP200 anomalies or normal to average for now. Also with the EPAC becoming active, it's possible the Atlantic may go a few weeks without real TC activity as its rare for both basins to be active at the same time.

That being said, EPS long range signal are pointing towards a big October in regards to Atlantic TC activity with a strong rising air branch over the entire Atlantic ocean, while a sinking air branch sets up over the EPAC. My personal forecast numbers for the Atlantic were 14/15 named systems and NOAA's numbers are even higher. If we fail to get a burst of TC activity through the remainder of September, I think my forecast will bust. Unless we have a monster OCtober.

Is not unusual for both basins to be active during the Atlantic's peak period during a non-El Nino, September 2004 was a good example, among a few.

No El Nino or El Nino, 2004 and 2005 were the last years I remember where both basins had activity at the same time. And I'm not simply implying season totals. I mean directly, where if the EPAC has present TCs, the Atlantic is usually quiet and vice versa.

In that case we don't have to go that far, 2017 during the middle of September had 2-3 systems over in the far east EPAC while the Atlantic also had 2-3 systems at the same time.

[NDG]

Very dangerous pattern setting up for the southern US over the next 10 days or so if the latest EPS is correct.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1171031497207373830

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1171020834376474624

[AnnularCane]

:lol: Nice to see now that Dorian's finally off the board, we're back to the full range of posts from "Holy look at those SSTs" to "It was a fluke, cancel the rest of the season."

I thought the "season cancel" posts would at least wait till next year. What a fool I was.

[chaser1]

Very dangerous pattern setting up for the southern US over the next 10 days or so if the latest EPS is correct.

https://i.imgur.com/gbHmArd.gif

Sorta screams "Carolina's" to me

[Steve]

...I'm thinking most of the seasonal forecasts (especially with the hurricane numbers) are going to bust as the MDR is all but completely shut down this year and the CFS has backed off on most stronger activity (while it shows several very short-lived storms through about early to mid October)....

What do you consider "most" of the seasonal forecasts? Maybe I missed them, but I have read very few credible forecasts that called for anything much above average much less any calling for hyper-active conditions. Seems like most of the credible forecasts I read were for slightly below average to average conditions with maybe super low ACE. I think 57 even noted that we might not get 30. We're slightly ahead of pretty much all climatological averages except in number of hurricanes and hurricane days.

We are up to the "G" storm which usually forms by 9/16 (based on 1966-09 average). We've only had 2 hurricanes I think (average 3rd hurricane is 9/9 which is today). Average MH is by 9/4 (which we beat) and then the second, if there is one, would be by October 3rd.

From the CSU site, which uses a different range - 1981-2010 climatology in real time

Named Storms 7 (6.5)
Named Storm Days 26.5 (27.1)
Hurricanes 2 (2.7)
Hurricane Days 10.25 (10.1)
Major Hurricanes 1 (1.2)
Major Hurricane Days 4.75 (3.0)
ACE 57.2 (46.2)

Seems to me that we're right about average here and probably will remain close to average for the next several weeks. So I'm a little confused as to what "most forecasts" constitutes.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1171079757720686592

[Kingarabian]

Is not unusual for both basins to be active during the Atlantic's peak period during a non-El Nino, September 2004 was a good example, among a few.

No El Nino or El Nino, 2004 and 2005 were the last years I remember where both basins had activity at the same time. And I'm not simply implying season totals. I mean directly, where if the EPAC has present TCs, the Atlantic is usually quiet and vice versa.

In that case we don't have to go that far, 2017 during the middle of September had 2-3 systems over in the far east EPAC while the Atlantic also had 2-3 systems at the same time.

It' still seems like a small sample size to me. Reason is, when theres activity in one of these basins, one has more rising air while the other has residual sinking air. 2017 September featured 4 majors while the September EPAC systems were mostly Cat.1 or below.

[psyclone]

Ben Noll's medium to long range posts seem to be reliably on point. When he says to pay attention I do. I recall a number of tweets a couple weeks before Michael last year mentioning rising motion and favorable conditions. It is highly likely that we're going to have a good bit more activity and the slow season crowd will get another climo (whack a mole) beat down. While it is certainly possible the season will end up as a one hit wonder, the emerging pattern seems to indicate that is not the most likely outcome.

[crownweather]

Maybe I'm being the cranky, get off my lawn, type here, but can we please stop with the season cancel posts & the there isn't going to be anymore storms type posts - it's gotten a little old, especially with the mounting death toll on Grand Bahama Island and the Abacos.

Also, there is mounting evidence in the data that suggests we are in for another spurt of activity & with the recovery operations now ongoing in the northern Bahamas, another hurricane or even tropical storm threat is the last thing that is needed.

 https://twitter.com/Bahamaspress/status/1170989182195572736



 https://twitter.com/Bahamaspress/status/1171007703491194880

[Hammy]

:lol: Nice to see now that Dorian's finally off the board, we're back to the full range of posts from "Holy look at those SSTs" to "It was a fluke, cancel the rest of the season."

I thought the "season cancel" posts would at least wait till next year. What a fool I was.

Maybe I'm being the cranky, get off my lawn, type here, but can we please stop with the season cancel posts & the there isn't going to be anymore storms type posts

Did you even read the reasoning behind the post? How is calling for an average season (which is less active than what some of the forecasts and several posters called for) a 'season cancel' post? And tragic as it is, Dorian's destruction shouldn't prohibit talking about seasonal indicators in the seasonal indicators thread nor did anything anywhere call for "no more storms".

...I'm thinking most of the seasonal forecasts (especially with the hurricane numbers) are going to bust as the MDR is all but completely shut down this year and the CFS has backed off on most stronger activity (while it shows several very short-lived storms through about early to mid October)....

What do you consider "most" of the seasonal forecasts? Maybe I missed them, but I have read very few credible forecasts that called for anything much above average much less any calling for hyper-active conditions. Seems like most of the credible forecasts I read were for slightly below average to average conditions with maybe super low ACE. I think 57 even noted that we might not get 30. We're slightly ahead of pretty much all climatological averages except in number of hurricanes and hurricane days.

We are up to the "G" storm which usually forms by 9/16 (based on 1966-09 average). We've only had 2 hurricanes I think (average 3rd hurricane is 9/9 which is today). Average MH is by 9/4 (which we beat) and then the second, if there is one, would be by October 3rd.

From the CSU site, which uses a different range - 1981-2010 climatology in real time

Named Storms 7 (6.5)
Named Storm Days 26.5 (27.1)
Hurricanes 2 (2.7)
Hurricane Days 10.25 (10.1)
Major Hurricanes 1 (1.2)
Major Hurricane Days 4.75 (3.0)
ACE 57.2 (46.2)

Seems to me that we're right about average here and probably will remain close to average for the next several weeks. So I'm a little confused as to what "most forecasts" constitutes.

The averages there include the quiet period, and I'm not doubting we'll have an average season by those metrics--and having a high number of storms isn't in question (I even said I expect many more weaker storms to occur during the season). I'm specifically having doubs that the hurricane numbers will play out--we've had two hurricanes so far, one of which seems to be of some controversy. Most forecasts that I recall to have 6-8 for the season (though there were some with 5) and I don't recall many seasons that had a high enough number after September 15 (which is likely the earliest date we'll get the next one)--during the active period, only 1995 (4), 1998 (7), 2000 (4), 2001 (6), 2005 (5), and 2010 (5) had 4 or more after that date, which comes down to about 25% of the time--and with the exception of 2005, all of those featured an active MDR prior, and with the exception of 2001 (which had three in November) each year had at least three hurricanes by this point.

(I'm sick and tired, very literally, and wanted to address all these in one post for ease)

[Steve]

I wasn't doubting your methodology, idea or reasoning. And I understand you were citing Hurricanes specifically (I read your entire post). I was just wondering what forecasts you were talking about. NOAA is like 4-8 H's, CSU upped to 7 in their August update (which I think might be a little high as well though not impossible). I read a few others that I don't want to go look up at the moment. But in almost all categories, it seemed like nearly everything I read (with a couple of exceptions) was calling for average or below average counts with a couple of exceptions.

A bust to me wouldn't be missing the count by 1 or 2 storms - or in this case, 1 or 2 storms that specifically were classified as hurricanes. Maybe if someone's prediction is 3 or more?

[Hammy]

I wasn't doubting your methodology, idea or reasoning. And I understand you were citing Hurricanes specifically (I read your entire post). I was just wondering what forecasts you were talking about. NOAA is like 4-8 H's, CSU upped to 7 in their August update (which I think might be a little high as well though not impossible). I read a few others that I don't want to go look up at the moment. But in almost all categories, it seemed like nearly everything I read (with a couple of exceptions) was calling for average or below average counts with a couple of exceptions.

A bust to me wouldn't be missing the count by 1 or 2 storms - on in this case, 1 or 2 storms that specifically were classified as hurricanes. Maybe if someone's prediction is 3 or more?

I could be mis-remembering but I thought there had been several 7-8 hurricane forecasts, unless I'm remembering earlier forecasts--I couldn't find where the latest ones were posted. (and for hurricane and MH numbers I generally consider a bust when it's lower at all given the lower margin for errors than with the storm numbers)

Either way the main point was I don't see an above average season, when taking both ACE (which I believe is 68-110 for 'near-normal' though I could be mistaken) and S/H/MH numbers into account.

[Kingarabian]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1171079757720686592

This is my thinking as well. But we could definitely see an area spin up earlier, somewhere in the Atlantic..

[AtlanticWind]

I wasn't doubting your methodology, idea or reasoning. And I understand you were citing Hurricanes specifically (I read your entire post). I was just wondering what forecasts you were talking about. NOAA is like 4-8 H's, CSU upped to 7 in their August update (which I think might be a little high as well though not impossible). I read a few others that I don't want to go look up at the moment. But in almost all categories, it seemed like nearly everything I read (with a couple of exceptions) was calling for average or below average counts with a couple of exceptions.

A bust to me wouldn't be missing the count by 1 or 2 storms - on in this case, 1 or 2 storms that specifically were classified as hurricanes. Maybe if someone's prediction is 3 or more?

I could be mis-remembering but I thought there had been several 7-8 hurricane forecasts, unless I'm remembering earlier forecasts--I couldn't find where the latest ones were posted. (and for hurricane and MH numbers I generally consider a bust when it's lower at all given the lower margin for errors than with the storm numbers)

Either way the main point was I don't see an above average season, when taking both ACE (which I believe is 68-110 for 'near-normal' though I could be mistaken) and S/H/MH numbers into account.

I still think this could still be an above average season ,we are just reaching the peak with no el Nino
There have been many back loaded seasons and my thinking is this season could be very active in
late Sept and especially oct.

[toad strangler]

Thread has gotten off track. I come here for maps man.

[Hammy]

I wasn't doubting your methodology, idea or reasoning. And I understand you were citing Hurricanes specifically (I read your entire post). I was just wondering what forecasts you were talking about. NOAA is like 4-8 H's, CSU upped to 7 in their August update (which I think might be a little high as well though not impossible). I read a few others that I don't want to go look up at the moment. But in almost all categories, it seemed like nearly everything I read (with a couple of exceptions) was calling for average or below average counts with a couple of exceptions.

A bust to me wouldn't be missing the count by 1 or 2 storms - on in this case, 1 or 2 storms that specifically were classified as hurricanes. Maybe if someone's prediction is 3 or more?

I could be mis-remembering but I thought there had been several 7-8 hurricane forecasts, unless I'm remembering earlier forecasts--I couldn't find where the latest ones were posted. (and for hurricane and MH numbers I generally consider a bust when it's lower at all given the lower margin for errors than with the storm numbers)

Either way the main point was I don't see an above average season, when taking both ACE (which I believe is 68-110 for 'near-normal' though I could be mistaken) and S/H/MH numbers into account.

I still think this could still be an above average season ,we are just reaching the peak with no el Nino
There have been many back loaded seasons and my thinking is this season could be very active in
late Sept and especially oct.

We'd need six more storms (highly likely) and either five more hurricanes or two more majors, and the ACE would need to double. Not impossible as it's happened in the past, but it's a pretty steep climb from where we're currently at, even with Dorian included in there.

An interesting side note, given the criteria, it's technically possible to have an above average season with zero majors.

[Steve]

Thread has gotten off track. I come here for maps man.

"See updated graphics at first post"