Trough of Low Pressure north of the Greater Antilles (Is INVEST 95L)

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, my estimate was just a hair slightly north of where the surface reflection is being depicted in this image


Yeah, it is very close to being a closed off llc.indeed.

[NDG]

Time for this system to be declared an Invest, is heading into an area of the Bahamas where tropical systems have done better than forecasted by the models.

[northjaxpro]

Time for this system to be declared an Invest, is heading into an area of the Bahamas where tropical systems have done better than forecasted by the models.

https://i.imgur.com/71d2Oj4.jpg

Yeah NDG I am puzzled why NHC has not yet to designate this already.
This system has had me on edge from the very beginning. You mentioned a very astute point in that this system is moving into a very renowned area of the Bahamas in where we have seen some of our most powerful tropical cyclones really get cranked. I certainly hope we are not trending like that with this disturbance. However, it is really organizing I feel much quicker than the models have had it modeled doing to this juncture. This has me feeling on edge.

[Aric Dunn]

Time for this system to be declared an Invest, is heading into an area of the Bahamas where tropical systems have done better than forecasted by the models.

https://i.imgur.com/71d2Oj4.jpg

Yeah NDG I am puzzled why NHC has not yet to designate this already.
This system has had me on edge from the very beginning. You mentioned a very astute point in that this system is moving into a very renowned area of the Bahamas in where we have seen some of our most powerful tropical cyclones really get cranked. I certainly hope we are not trending like that with this disturbance. However, it is really organizing I feel much quicker than the models have had it modeled doing to this juncture. This has me feeling on edge.

Likely because it has not been 24 hours of convection.

12 hours at best. But i would imagine its coming soon.

[toad strangler]

Just reading the NHC discussion I don't think they are very impressed with the structure of the disturbance and believe it won't have a chance to organize much until getting into the GOM.

[NDG]

Big differences between the latest 06z GFS and 0z Euro. The latest GFS moves it slower, starts closing off the trough over the FL Straights on Friday if not on Saturday over the SE GOM while the Euro moves the surface trough much faster further west and moves it underneath the ULL in the middle of the GOM by the weekend thus why it doesn't show it developing until it reaches the western GOM and away from the ULL by then.

[NDG]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower activity associated with a surface trough interacting with
an upper-level low near the north coast of Hispaniola northeastward
over the southwestern Atlantic has increased a little since
yesterday. Little, if any, development of this disturbance is
expected during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward
across the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula. However, environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for development
when the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.
Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce periods
of locally heavy rainfall across the Bahamas through Thursday, and
across Florida on Friday and continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[GCANE]

Wave seems to be drifting south into the Carib.
Watching if convection develops west of Haiti or around Jamaica.

[GCANE]

06Z GFS runs this along the north shore of Cuba, thru the straits into the GOM where it spins up and makes landfall Mobile Bay.

[NDG]

Nice continuation of convection re-firing and expanding thanks from the UL divergence from the UL trough to the west of the surface trough but I don't expect much over the next couple of days, easterly low level flow to the west of the trough axis are fairly fast, so it will have to get close to SE FL/northern Cuba/Western Bahamas for land friction help close a circulation, like it has been the case during the past weak systems that have tracked through this area so far this hurricane season.

[jlauderdal]

06Z GFS runs this along the north shore of Cuba, thru the straits into the GOM where it spins up and makes landfall Mobile Bay.


https://i.imgur.com/lmQ8skT.png

that has some real potential if it takes that track through the straits versus the northerly route over the peninsula, models dont have a good grasp of intensity or track of this entity

[GCANE]

Something is firing up west of Haiti

[EquusStorm]

I'm on the Alabama coast for another week and this has my close excited attention. Unplanned spontaneous convenient hurricane chase time??

[Steve]

Radar Depictions seem to indicate an arch-shaped north and a small concentrated area of showers that gets slightly better developed all the way to the coast. It looks like the envelope might be elliptical or stretched across its northern side. Might be the H storm by FL or the Gulf.

[Frank P]

Something is firing up west of Haiti

https://i.imgur.com/MKbns94.gif

https://i.imgur.com/ZYHq0aN.png

All the core of this wave is well NNW of that little convection, don’t think that will amount to much IMO...

[LarryWx]

The 6Z Euro ensemble is tied for the most active of at least the last 4 with 9 of the 51 members with an actual TC. If Weathernerds had the 6Z, they would likely be showing even more than the 15 or so surface lows that they show for the 0Z.

In terms of actual TCs, the 9 on the 6Z compares to 3 on the 0Z, 9 on the last 18Z, and 3 on the last 12Z. Also, there remain 2 pretty distinct camps of tracks with one moving more slowly NW/NNW/N into the E coast of FL and further north, similar to the 6Z ICON, without necessarily ever going into the Gulf while the other camp moves more quickly WNW and then NW with hits in the AL/MS/LA corridor. This second camp would have more potential to eventually become a stronger storm as it would cross about the warmest SSTs in the entire Atlantic basin.

The reason for there being 2 camps appears to be due to a later split of the energy between what makes it to the Gulf and what lags behind over the Gulf Stream. The 12Z ICON stubbornly held into the idea of a surface low that hangs around just E of FL (just offshore Melbourne on this run) and which then starts moving N and then NE off SC, which seems counterintuitive but it can’t be discounted yet.

[DioBrando]

CMC show this becoming Imelda and the African wave Humberto

[LarryWx]

For the 1st time this early in at least 4 runs, the 12Z GFS has a closed sfc low (at hour 90 near the FL Keys).

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Looks like the models are showing an ULL moving into the Gulf ahead of this system, preventing it from properly consolidating. Shouldn't be anything more than a moderate TS, IMO.

[LarryWx]

Looks like the models are showing an ULL moving into the Gulf ahead of this system, preventing it from properly consolidating. Shouldn't be anything more than a moderate TS, IMO.

I sure hope you're right!
The 12Z GFS has It going into AL/MS at hour 132 as possibly a TD. Keep watching this one, folks!