Trough of Low Pressure north of the Greater Antilles (Is INVEST 95L)

[South Texas Storms]

Still 30%:

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough near the southeastern Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic waters has increased since yesterday. Limited development of this disturbance is expected during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward across the Bahamas. However, environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development when the system moves over the Florida Straits and the Gulf of Mexico late this week and this weekend. Regardless of development, this disturbance will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida on Friday and continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[psyclone]

Area of potential development keeps getting pushed forward and now resides entirely over the GOM whereas previously it flanked the Florida peninsula. Still looks like an unsettled weekend over fl..

[DioBrando]

Prolly a TD if it ever forms.
Yuuuuge was of dry air in front of the path.
Jeepers!

[GeneratorPower]

Sure looks like a developing tropical cyclone to me, using visible imagery. Man.

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro is in the E GOM but is east of the 0Z Euro, 12Z CMC, and somewhat east of the 12Z GFS although it is way west of the 12Z ICON, which is barely offshore the SE coast.
There's still a bit of uncertainty amongst the models as regards to how much to and where to concentrate the energy for sfc genesis.

[Jr0d]

Looking a little better today. Still a long way to go before it's close to a depression. Also the ULL to the west of it looks like it will keep it sheared in the short term.

Maybe tomorrow it will be designated 95L or 96L.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1171494664689471488

[stormlover2013]

12Z Euro is in the E GOM but is east of the 0Z Euro, 12Z CMC, and somewhat east of the 12Z GFS although it is way west of the 12Z ICON, which is barely offshore the SE coast.
There's still a bit of uncertainty amongst the models as regards to how much to and where to concentrate the energy for sfc genesis.

Euro is almost the same as 00z
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html

[Hammy]

Of everything out there, this by far stands the highest chance of becoming Humberto. There's near unanimous model support now, even the Euro showing something as it moves inland. Seems like it's developing similarly to Gordon last year.

[DioBrando]

Of everything out there, this by far stands the highest chance of becoming Humberto. There's near unanimous model support now, even the Euro showing something as it moves inland. Seems like it's developing similarly to Gordon last year.

Dry air ahead.

[psyclone]

not hard to imagine a short fused TS out of this...as some have mentioned similar to Gordon of last year.

[N2FSU]

12z Euro


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[DioBrando]

Issa TD

GFS shows TD as well

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1171494380475076611

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS: Still a bit of a split with where the surface low forms (just E of FL vs S of FL/GOM). Interestingly, the strongest member is way west in TX just E of Galveston!

[tailgater]

Looks like a very open wave as of now. I’m not expecting much from this one, hopefully some clouds and a little rain. Btw is anyone else noticing that the models as a whole aren’t giving us nearly as many model storms as in past years.

[xironman]

The first time I have seen convergence with this one. Up till now it was just divergence from the ULL.

[jlauderdal]

Looks like a very open wave as of now. I’m not expecting much from this one, hopefully some clouds and a little rain. Btw is anyone else noticing that the models as a whole aren’t giving us nearly as many model storms as in past years.

yep, plenty of smoke but not nearly as much fire, lets see if it contnues

[xironman]

Obvious mid level spin north of Haiti, don't know if there is enough convection to drill it down to the surface

[GCANE]

Rotating hot tower.
Popups over Haiti going to push moisture into this.
Need to see how this develops tonight.