Wave well east of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 96L)

[gatorcane]

12Z FIM model long-range. Later goes on to recurve into SW Florida while intensifying:

[AtlanticWind]

How the WPAC systems Lingling and Faxai are absorbed into the higher latitudes could play a crucial role in the eventual track of this AEW. Here is an analysis of the 2 systems 72 hours ago, and their eventual track towards an approaching trough:

Nothing says fall like a nice typhoon enhanced Rossby Wave train.

Complicated teleconnections you say? Models to say the least are highly uncertain. Sometimes I think all models should never go past 7 days.

It is not the models going past 7 days that is the problem,but that we tend to overhype the solutions
that far out.

But there are cases where the models have performed really well in the long range.
Look back at Irma ,they were in remarkable agreement that she would strengthen and
cross the Atlantic and threaten the leewards, Puerto Rico,Florida and the S.E. U.S.
And that was when the system was in the Cabo Verde islands

[ouragans]

Is it this one?

GENESIS021, AL, L, , , , , 74, 2019, DB, O, 2019090800, 9999999999, , 021, , , , GENESIS, , AL742019

[SFLcane]

A good chunk about 80% of the ECMWF eps members are recurving near Bermuda.

[Hurricaneman]

Is it this one?

GENESIS021, AL, L, , , , , 74, 2019, DB, O, 2019090800, 9999999999, , 021, , , , GENESIS, , AL742019

Yep, they’re doing an internal invest like they usually do before they do a public invest

[Kazmit]

A good chunk about 80% of the ECMWF eps members are recurving near Bermuda.

Do you have a graphic link?

[sma10]

0z GFS development significantly delayed. Good news for islands, if true

[Hurricaneman]

0z GFS development significantly delayed. Good news for islands, if true

The thing is the GFS has been inconsistent on intensity with this feature, who knows it could be a quicker developing system than modeled but also may never develop so we’ll have to wait and see

[sma10]

0z GFS development significantly delayed. Good news for islands, if true

The thing is the GFS has been inconsistent on intensity with this feature, who knows it could be a quicker developing system than modeled but also may never develop so we’ll have to wait and see

As suspected though, delayed development does not necessarily guarantee good news for U.S.

[LarryWx]

1. The 0Z Euro is weak and much further south in the Caribbean.
2. The 0Z CMC is faster and stronger skirting N Hisp.

[chris_fit]

06Z GFS drops development so far, through 144 hrs

[drezee]

Very little doubt of a closed surface low...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 690,12.085

[plasticup]

Very little doubt of a closed surface low...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 690,12.085

If that map is accurate we'll have an invest today.

[SFLcane]

Very little doubt of a closed surface low...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 690,12.085

If that map is accurate we'll have an invest today.

That map is just model analysis winds. It's not direct obs. I don’t expect a tag for several days if at all.

[wxman57]

Very little doubt of a closed surface low...

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 690,12.085

If that map is accurate we'll have an invest today.

There are no specific requirements for the NHC declaring an "Invest". At any time, for any reason, they can decide to run models on a disturbance of interest. There may be little chance of the disturbance developing, or it may already have developed an LLC. Based on quite a bit of model support for development, and the fact that it may reach the NE Caribbean in 6 days, I would suspect it will become 95L today.

[ouragans]

Generally, and there's no rule for this, Invest are declared when NHC is at 20% for 48 hrs. But sometimes, there's an invest with 0% or 10%, or even 30%

[Kazmit]

12z GFS back to being strong again.

[sma10]

CMC and Euro disagree slightly with GFS in bringing the wave further south and west. At this point they have the system interacting with Hispaniola and Cuba, but it doesn't take much of a SW shift to put the system in a much more perilous location south of Cuba. Something to watch with today's 12z Euro

[Hammy]

GEM backing off a bit but it looks like a result of the track, going right over the middle of the Greater Antilles.

[otowntiger]

Nothing says fall like a nice typhoon enhanced Rossby Wave train.

Complicated teleconnections you say? Models to say the least are highly uncertain. Sometimes I think all models should never go past 7 days.

It is not the models going past 7 days that is the problem,but that we tend to overhype the solutions
that far out.

But there are cases where the models have performed really well in the long range.
Look back at Irma ,they were in remarkable agreement that she would strengthen and
cross the Atlantic and threaten the leewards, Puerto Rico,Florida and the S.E. U.S.
And that was when the system was in the Cabo Verde islands

Agreed. I also think of Matthew in this regard. When the system was in the Cape Verdes as a tropical wave it had lots of model support for hitting/threatening Florida just as it ultimately did.