Wave well east of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 96L)

[Kazmit]

I'm honestly wondering when this will get invested.

Not quite within the 5 day formation range yet.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located between the west coast of Africa and the
Cabo Verde Islands is expected to move quickly westward during the
next several days. Some slow development is possible over the
weekend when the system is a few hundred miles east of the Windward
Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[DioBrando]

I'm honestly wondering when this will get invested.

Not quite within the 5 day formation range yet.

I'd rather this get named sooner for a quicker recurve sigh

[Blown Away]

GFS/Euro pretty consistent on development near PR/Hispaniola and a turn NW once storm deepens... 18z GFS was interesting, turned NW near Islands, stalled, then NNE, and gets blocked over Canada vs total recurve OTS... Noticed when GFS does this it usually underestimating HP... JMHO

[ouragans]

I'm honestly wondering when this will get invested.

when there is 20% at 48 hrs

[AxaltaRacing24]

Trof parade on latest gfs... yep there’s your dangerous steering pattern.

My dude this is a million hours out. We cannot celebrate nor get nervous based off early model runs before we even have a named system.

[sma10]

Trof parade on latest gfs... yep there’s your dangerous steering pattern.

My dude this is a million hours out. We cannot celebrate nor get nervous based off early model runs before we even have a named system.

Lol - yeah exactly.
Plus, if this happens to track SW of current trend to south of Cuba, those same steering patterns all of a sudden become dangerous

[Blown Away]

Trof parade on latest gfs... yep there’s your dangerous steering pattern.

The timing of this system near CONUS would be after Sept 20 and difficult for a westward moving system to make it past 75W before beginning recurve. Climatology supports a recurve.

[gatorcane]

I have to say it looks like a fall-like pattern on the models in the long-range. Chances are this would recurve if it heads north of the islands based on climo after Sept 20th but we all know what the globals models are showing can just as easily change the next run. With recurving typhoons, the pattern looks especially complicated this time as shown by the wide spread in ensemble guidance. We may need to wait under 7 days out to get more of an idea and that is IF this even develops at all.

[Abdullah]

I'm honestly wondering when this will get invested.

So eager. You saw how late 94L got invested.

[cycloneye]

You can detect a weak circulation about to emerge West Africa around 10N/10W.

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS plows through Hispaniola and a bit of eastern Cuba causing a disorganized core for a time but as it nears Florida it reestablishes itself and starts strengthening, this is my worry with a weaker system is quick strengthening where it matters most and if you look at the GFS, some real monsters have formed there including the 1935 Labor Day hurricane so beware if this should get in the area between the Bahamas, Florida and Cuba

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like a possible system east of this one currently just east of the African coast in the long range gives this an avenue out but if this takes that system out this would be a Florida storm without the system to its east but since it’s super long range it probably will change 10 times or more before we get a final solution

[SouthFLTropics]

That is a HUGE trough for late September!!!

[USTropics]

The 00z operational runs are trending west tonight:

00z GFS


00z GFS legacy


00z CMC

[Hurricaneman]

I would watch the trend. at this point the trend is not good especially for Hispaniola and Cuba and maybe even the GOM and Florida

[AxaltaRacing24]

GFS and euro are in pretty good agreement for 10 days out (for now). Steering has differences though (more riding on euro).

[TheStormExpert]

06z GFS trends even further west, now in the NW Caribbean in 10 days.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

06z GFS has switched to a Caribbean cruiser that heads into the Gulf as a significant hurricane.

All long run stuff, of course.

Big takeaway:

Models are in agreement that this system will probably not see any significant development before reaching the Caribbean.

Potential for significant interaction with the island of Hispaniola; however, should the system survive that by either going north or south of Hispaniola, potential for mischief either in the Bahamas or the Western Caribbean.

[Hurricaneman]

06z GFS has switched to a Caribbean cruiser that heads into the Gulf as a significant hurricane.

All long run stuff, of course.

Big takeaway:

Models are in agreement that this system will probably not see any significant development before reaching the Caribbean.

Potential for significant interaction with the island of Hispaniola; however, should the system survive that by either going north or south of Hispaniola, potential for mischief either in the Bahamas or the Western Caribbean.

Yep, a hurricane Charley on steroids, hope for nothing like this but who knows