sma10 wrote:Is it possible that we get two storms out of this?
Ukmet develops near central FL and also develops new system in Gulf
This is complex. Indeed, after it currently has 95L a TD that then weakens, the
12Z UKMET then redevelops both sides of the energy split (I don't know if I've ever seen this on the UKMET progs) but with the stronger side moving NNW near the FL E coast and then moving further NNW/N just inland in the SE US coast and then up moves NNE into the SE:
1.
It has it now as a TD that quickly weakens:95L TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 73.9W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952019
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2019 0 20.1N 73.9W 1013 19
0000UTC 12.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING
2.
Redevelopment #1: Stronger TC almost a H: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 26.7N 79.0W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2019 72 26.7N 79.0W 1009 29
0000UTC 15.09.2019 84 27.8N 79.9W 1005 41
1200UTC 15.09.2019 96 29.2N 80.9W 1002 44
0000UTC 16.09.2019 108 30.8N 81.3W 992 60
1200UTC 16.09.2019 120 32.4N 81.5W 982 55
0000UTC 17.09.2019 132 33.8N 81.4W 989 32
1200UTC 17.09.2019 144 34.9N 80.6W 1000 28
3.
Redevelopment #2: It later develops a TD in the GOM:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 27.4N 91.9W
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2019 108 27.4N 91.9W 1008 27
1200UTC 16.09.2019 120 28.4N 93.8W 1007 26
0000UTC 17.09.2019 132 28.9N 94.0W 1006 28
1200UTC 17.09.2019 144 30.2N 94.2W 1007 30