ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
It ain't going north according to latest Euro.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=watl&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2019091112&fh=72
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=watl&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2019091112&fh=72
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6817
- Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
- Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
euro is bullish on the approach to se florida also seems slower than previous runsAric Dunn wrote:12z euro has initilized the surface trough axis very weak and south side of eastern cuba. And the first 12 hours it is still over land...
Clearly that is not the case.. lets see what happens.
2 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Looks like the 500 mb low is decoupled from the LLC on the latest Euro - might be a sign of poor organization at least initially.
1 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6817
- Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
- Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
se fl could very well have more effects from this than dorianronjon wrote:12z euro - Miami to Tampa
2 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Euro definitely develops it faster this run. It would probably develop it even faster if it initialized the surface trough north of cuba not over and below it.
It took 24 hours to get the surface trough north over water
It took 24 hours to get the surface trough north over water
1 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
jlauderdal wrote:se fl could very well have more effects from this than dorianronjon wrote:12z euro - Miami to Tampa
Certainly for us on the west coast - although Euro has it only 1010 mb over Tampa and 1004 mb near Tally the next day. Rain maker...
0 likes
- SFLcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 9627
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sat Jun 05, 2010 1:44 pm
- Location: Lake Worth Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:Euro definitely develops it faster this run. It would probably develop it even faster if it initialized the surface trough north of cuba not over and below it.
It took 24 hours to get the surface trough north over water
Well until we have ASCAT/airplane we don't actually know where the low is.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
ronjon wrote:jlauderdal wrote:se fl could very well have more effects from this than dorianronjon wrote:12z euro - Miami to Tampa
Certainly for us on the west coast - although Euro has it only 1010 mb over Tampa and 1004 mb near Tally the next day. Rain maker...
Rather high background pressures. Soo 1004mb could easily be 60mph ish
1 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Looks to be trapped in south alabama as ridging builds over top and north of it.
1 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
SFLcane wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Euro definitely develops it faster this run. It would probably develop it even faster if it initialized the surface trough north of cuba not over and below it.
It took 24 hours to get the surface trough north over water
Well until we have ASCAT/airplane we don't actually know where the low is.
We know where it is not...
1 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:ronjon wrote:jlauderdal wrote:se fl could very well have more effects from this than dorian
Certainly for us on the west coast - although Euro has it only 1010 mb over Tampa and 1004 mb near Tally the next day. Rain maker...
Rather high background pressures. Soo 1004mb could easily be 60mph ish
That's true - and it is the low resolution run. Might be a few mb lower in the high resolution output.
1 likes
- HurricaneAndre2008
- Category 1
- Posts: 250
- Age: 26
- Joined: Wed Jul 31, 2019 9:51 pm
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
469
NOUS42 KNHC 111732
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT WED 11 SEPTEMBER 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2019
TCPOD NUMBER.....19-106
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR CENTRAL BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 12/2000Z A. 13/0530Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 12/1730Z C. 13/0245Z
D. 24.0N 77.0W D. 24.5N 78.5W
E. 12/1945Z TO 13/0000Z E. 13/0500Z TO 13/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
A. 13/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLONE
C. 13/0900Z
D. 24.7N 79.5W
E. 13/1100Z TO 13/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
NOUS42 KNHC 111732
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT WED 11 SEPTEMBER 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2019
TCPOD NUMBER.....19-106
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR CENTRAL BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 12/2000Z A. 13/0530Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 12/1730Z C. 13/0245Z
D. 24.0N 77.0W D. 24.5N 78.5W
E. 12/1945Z TO 13/0000Z E. 13/0500Z TO 13/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
A. 13/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLONE
C. 13/0900Z
D. 24.7N 79.5W
E. 13/1100Z TO 13/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.
II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
$$
SEF
NNNN
0 likes
Cindy(2005), Katrina(2005), Rita(2005), Erin(2007), Isaac(2012)
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21228
- Age: 41
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Looks like some weak westerly inflow streamers developing on the sw side just off the coast of cuba.
Might be trying to close off
Might be trying to close off
2 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Its deepening.
Visible LL clouds on the west side of the convection suddenly making a turn from moving NE to SW to now moving N to S.
Visible LL clouds on the west side of the convection suddenly making a turn from moving NE to SW to now moving N to S.
1 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
May not be all the way down at the surface but there is definitely at least a broad circulation developing, the LLC that was just north of Holguin Cuba earlier this morning circulated SW inland in Cuba. Surface pressures in eastern Cuba are a couple of mb lower than 24 hrs ago.
The slower it moves over the next 3-4 hours the farther away it stays from the ULL retrograding westward across the GOM and the better upper level winds it will have to work with to further strengthen. IMO.
The slower it moves over the next 3-4 hours the farther away it stays from the ULL retrograding westward across the GOM and the better upper level winds it will have to work with to further strengthen. IMO.
3 likes
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
Any chance this becomes much more of a significant threat for South Florida than we think? Many a storms have really intensified in the area the invest is traversing not to mention the time of year.
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion
This looks more likely than not to eventually develop with convection continuing to persist. I'd expect the NHC to resume an upward trajectory on development chances into the cherry zone.
2 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests