Wave well east of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 96L)

[toad strangler]

It sure looks like the 12z Euro is going to end very close to the same spot as 0z

[chris_fit]

Pretty sure this is gonna be a recurve... Poor Bahamas though, can't catch a break

[toad strangler]

12z Euro ends hammering the Central and Northern Bahamas and still heading WNW
500mb much different then GFS

[gatorcane]

Ut oh for South Florida when I look at that Euro run. It’s 240 hours out but has a major hurricane in the vicinity like the other global models. The pattern is complex so hopefully it trends east

[chris_fit]

2nd half of the 12Z EURO run

[SouthFLTropics]

Thankfully we are looking at 10 day models and we all know something will change. It has to change. The Bahamas don't need this and I'm not sure mine or my wife's nerves can take it either. I'm ready to head to the hills...to stay...for good!!!

[AxaltaRacing24]

Thankfully we are looking at 10 day models and we all know something will change. It has to change. The Bahamas don't need this and I'm not sure mine or my wife's nerves can take it either. I'm ready to head to the hills...to stay...for good!!!

I don’t want an 04’ repeat with the same areas stressing only 2 weeks later. Especially when an 185mph cat 5 just devastated the bahamas.

[toad strangler]

I stressed much more for Matthew and Irma than I did Dorian. Come on guys, you are veterans. I've only been in FL for 10 years. I need vets to look up to

Seriously though, yeah 10 days is an eternity. So is 5.

[SouthFLTropics]

Thankfully we are looking at 10 day models and we all know something will change. It has to change. The Bahamas don't need this and I'm not sure mine or my wife's nerves can take it either. I'm ready to head to the hills...to stay...for good!!!

I don’t want an 04’ repeat with the same areas stressing only 2 weeks later. Especially when an 185mph cat 5 just devastated the bahamas.

Man, I hear you on that. Frances and Jeanne SUCKED!!! Now for some encouraging news...Just looked at the 12z GEFS and the ensembles continue to be well east of the operational.

[SouthFLTropics]

I stressed much more for Matthew and Irma than I did Dorian. Come on guys, you are veterans. I've only been in FL for 10 years. I need vets to look up too

Seriously though, yeah 10 days is an eternity. So is 5.

You've only dealt with them for 10 years...I've dealt with them my whole life. I'm done with them. When it comes to hurricanes I'm considered a Cat 5 and the NHC can just go ahead and retire my name.

[cycloneye]

NHC fixed the cone of the 2 PM TWO.

[toad strangler]

Thankfully we are looking at 10 day models and we all know something will change. It has to change. The Bahamas don't need this and I'm not sure mine or my wife's nerves can take it either. I'm ready to head to the hills...to stay...for good!!!

I don’t want an 04’ repeat with the same areas stressing only 2 weeks later. Especially when an 185mph cat 5 just devastated the bahamas.

Man, I hear you on that. Frances and Jeanne SUCKED!!! Now for some encouraging news...Just looked at the 12z GEFS and the ensembles continue to be well east of the operational.

I fear that S route under the GA's more than anything. We'll see, maybe the models are screwing up genesis big time again.

[toad strangler]

Ut oh for South Florida when I look at that Euro run. It’s 240 hours out but has a major hurricane in the vicinity like the other global models. The pattern is complex so hopefully it trends east

Climatology would absolutely favor a recurve to the E and OTS or threaten Carolina's / Bermuda. It's the anomalies that keep me awake at night!

[Hammy]

Ut oh for South Florida when I look at that Euro run. It’s 240 hours out but has a major hurricane in the vicinity like the other global models. The pattern is complex so hopefully it trends east

Climatology would absolutely favor a recurve to the E and OTS or threaten Carolina's / Bermuda. It's the anomalies that keep me awake at night!

Climatology has certainly gone out the window the last few seasons.

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS has nearly 25% of the members into the Gulf, which is a bit higher than the 0Z had and much higher than the ~15% of the 12Z GEFS.

[sma10]

12Z EPS has nearly 25% of the members into the Gulf, which is a bit higher than the 0Z had and much higher than the ~15% of the 12Z GEFS.

We've been thru this ringer before. The chance of a 10 day position verifying verbatim is .... minimal, to say the least. My eyes will be on which side of the fence this eventually starts to fall, since it appears to be on a tight wire. Even the slightest rightward verification probably results in a harmless recurve. But anything to the left, even just a little, is trouble.

[Visioen]

I'm gonna check back in a few days, there are just not much sensible things to say yet.




Until tomorrow when I can't keep myself from looking at models anyway.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely a lot of ridging in place through 120 hours coupled with a high forward velocity. Wouldn't surprise me if this tries to sneak a little further south than what the ECMWF/GFS is showing.

[MetroMike]

NHC fixed the cone of the 2 PM TWO.

https://i.imgur.com/GPXUrPN.png

Actually still 2 yellow X's in the MDR still. Very confusing on why the keep the 1st one.

[SouthFLTropics]

The 18z GFS is late to the party on TT...Wonder what's going on???