ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
That’s assuming the EURO is correct in its
thinking and that is a huge question mark.
thinking and that is a huge question mark.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
12z Euro ensembles, majority through treasure FL NW towards the Nature coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
NDG wrote:12z Euro ensembles, majority through treasure FL NW towards the Nature coast.
https://i.imgur.com/akynOWm.gif
In contrast to these 12Z Euro ens members, the 0Z Euro members were almost all moving WNW and between Lake Okeechobee and the S tip of FL. So, quite a north shift.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
WPC doesn't see it.12Z QPF is mostly 2-4" anywhere except offshore.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1568232406
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1568232406
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
BobHarlem wrote:12Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/QMuAJS5.gif
This model has it strengthening right over the "big bend" area of FL?
Can it do that?? I know there's not much there but "swamp," but really....after traveling over ALL the FL peninsula land??
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Michele B wrote:BobHarlem wrote:12Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/QMuAJS5.gif
This model has it strengthening right over the "big bend" area of FL?
Can it do that?? I know there's not much there but "swamp," but really....after traveling over ALL the FL peninsula land??
There's 24 hours in between. The Canadian shows it going back out over water. If it has time to do that and follows that route, it would be possible. It just looks odd with that trajectory and the 24 hour jump.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
18Z ICON slightly east of its 12Z run a little further off the E coast of FL.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
The NHC is not agreeing with these models. They have this aimed at the central Gulf.
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- p1nheadlarry
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Probably going to struggle with cyclogenesis as with the last few storms
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
ICON shows something entirely new in the
GOM in addition to 95L.....hmmmmm.
GOM in addition to 95L.....hmmmmm.
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- toad strangler
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Cpv17 wrote:The NHC is not agreeing with these models. They have this aimed at the central Gulf.
If anything the area of genesis possibilities have been move N and E over the past 24 hours. So I wouldn’t say at all that the NHC is discounting modeling on the right side.
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- karenfromheaven
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Latest experimental Navy COAMPS model I could find (06Z) has it in the Gulf off FL W coast:
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc?&spg=1&hend=120&sid=95L&ddtg=2019091106&scl=1&sec=1&var=slp-sfc&tau=999
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc?&spg=1&hend=120&sid=95L&ddtg=2019091106&scl=1&sec=1&var=slp-sfc&tau=999
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- DESTRUCTION5
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
18z GFS closes off the low prior to "landfall" in FL.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
The 18Z ICON run, FWIW, which from the past few days, has been very persistent with its north and east bias with 95L, has it strengthening to a very strong TS, 998 mb, just off the coast of Jacksonville Beach by Monday afternoon.
This is not looking far fetched anymore folks the ICON, as the EURO and GFS models have adjusted towward the ICON with shifts north and east all day long. The UKMET joined in with the ICON with its 00Z run last night.
This is not looking far fetched anymore folks the ICON, as the EURO and GFS models have adjusted towward the ICON with shifts north and east all day long. The UKMET joined in with the ICON with its 00Z run last night.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
I'm not buying the Icon. It started off well with Dorian in the beginning but as I recall was all over the board after that
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
caneman wrote:I'm not buying the Icon. It started off well with Dorian in the beginning but as I recall was all over the board after that
Well, until I see shifts back to the left or solidly west, this analyst will not completely discount the model.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Im hoping for nothing. I live near Tampa. Clearwater Beach and then staying near shore in Mississppi come expected landfall time and driving back Sunday so its possibly a lose lose situation
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- wxman57
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Here are a couple plots I made. Sorry, no key. Green lines are GFS ensembles, yellow are Canadian. The two dark lines east of Florida are two iterations of the UKMET. Dark purple line is CMC operational. Lower image has only the TVCN (consensus), which the NHC will generally follow very closely. Most guidance takes the disturbance across south Florida then into the NE Gulf as a relatively weak storm by the time it moves ashore. If the shear doesn't let up, then look for guidance to shift eastward with the track, but that will keep the system weaker.
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