ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Very dynamic, things changing quickly.
500mb vort has stretched out quite a bit the last few hours.
ULL in the GOM is deepening.

[GCANE]

Nice towers around Great Inagua

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely a elongated circ. Stretched ne to sw. The Ne turn point is in the middle of that convection. And per the models ad well just the dynamics the likely place for a distinct llc to tighten up.

[Florida1118]

Satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather over the central and southeastern Bahamas is gradually becoming better organized while surface pressures are falling in the area. Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph. If this development trend continues Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated later today. This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday, especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[GCANE]

Averaged over the large convection area, shear is about 8 knots

[jlauderdal]

Satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather over the central and southeastern Bahamas is gradually becoming better organized while surface pressures are falling in the area. Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph. If this development trend continues Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated later today. This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday, especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

no mention of florida, maybe they are gearing up to take the easterly route

[OuterBanker]

Really Euro?
This is supposed to be a weak td into the panhandle. GFS doesn't even have a td.
Is the Euro the new crazy cousin?

It's only one run, but eye opening to say the least.

[tgenius]

Satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather over the central and southeastern Bahamas is gradually becoming better organized while surface pressures are falling in the area. Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph. If this development trend continues Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated later today. This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday, especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

no mention of florida, maybe they are gearing up to take the easterly route

That’s a good point. Wonder what the 12z models are going to look like.

[Aric Dunn]

Satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather over the central and southeastern Bahamas is gradually becoming better organized while surface pressures are falling in the area. Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph. If this development trend continues Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated later today. This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday, especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

no mention of florida, maybe they are gearing up to take the easterly route

That’s a good point. Wonder what the 12z models are going to look like.

It says as it moves through bahamas and towards the florida peninsula

[northjaxpro]

Satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather over the central and southeastern Bahamas is gradually becoming better organized while surface pressures are falling in the area. Conditions are becoming favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form within the next day or so as the system moves toward the northwest through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the Florida Peninsula at 5 to 10 mph. If this development trend continues Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories will likely be initiated later today. This disturbance will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds across portions of the Bahamas through Friday, especially in portions of the northwestern Bahamas affected by Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon, if necessary.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

PTC advisory is immiment later today.

A very, very interesting weekend in store for us here in Florida and possibly up along the SE Atlantic Coast as well later in the period.

[jlauderdal]

no mention of florida, maybe they are gearing up to take the easterly route

That’s a good point. Wonder what the 12z models are going to look like.

It says as it moves through bahamas and towards the florida peninsula

moving towards, dorian was moving towards florida too...let see what the next eruo does with it

[NDG]

This is what I see this morning, there's a broad circulation W of the deep convection, which will reform or move north while weak following the convection, once it becomes influenced by the ridge over the TN river valley it will track through the northern Bahamas, unfortunately, what happens after that is still up in the air, but the trend is that it will not get into GOM, that's for sure, whether it will get to FL or stay away from FL is still 50/50. IMO.

[toad strangler]

I saw a disco posted before that specifically mentioned that the Euro was not being weighed very heavily by the NHC.

[GeneratorPower]

That’s a good point. Wonder what the 12z models are going to look like.

It says as it moves through bahamas and towards the florida peninsula

moving towards, dorian was moving towards florida too...let see what the next eruo does with it

This is often said and ends up being meaningless but 12z EURO run is really important today. I think it probably continues the 00z idea of a right-of-Florida track. Euro seems to pick up on things before any other model. If we get a similar solution to 00z I am not wasting my time analyzing Gulf scenarios trickling out of UKMET ensemble outliers and ICON fantasies.

[Aric Dunn]

06z is definitely to the right at 30 hours and stronger.

[GeneratorPower]

06z is definitely to the right at 30 hours and stronger.

EURO?

[Aric Dunn]

06z is definitely to the right at 30 hours and stronger.

EURO?

Yeah euro. Develops it east of the Bahamas essentially exactly where the ball of convection is... in about 24 hours. Then moves NW

[Aric Dunn]

Then west through northern Bahamas. At 48 hours

[tgenius]

Then west through northern Bahamas. At 48 hours

About what Lattitude is that motion at?

[Aric Dunn]

Then west through northern Bahamas. At 48 hours

About what Lattitude is that motion at?

Just below grand bahama