Wave well east of Lesser Antilles (Is INVEST 96L)

[1900hurricane]

What phase is the Mjo in?

Phase 5 to 6.

https://i.imgur.com/6ENYgpo.gif

I’m sorry what does that mean in plain English? Please forgive my meteorological ignorance

It's emerging over the Western Pacific.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while the system moves
westward over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[chris_fit]

No 00z model develops it now.

Pretty much every 00z model develops it in some way or another, except for the GFS Legacy - not sure what you are looking at?

[abajan]

No 00z model develops it now.

Pretty much every 00z model develops it in some way or another, except for the GFS Legacy - not sure what you are looking at?

I think you misunderstood, due to the lack of a comma after the word "No". Hammy meant to state, "No, [the] 00z model develops it now."

[Kazmit]

GFS has dropped this for multiple runs now in favor of the waves behind it.

[AnnularCane]

GFS has dropped this for multiple runs now in favor of the waves behind it.

Pick a wave and stick with it, GFS!

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while the system moves
westward over the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I really think this storm is probably just a phantom storm. Maybe the models are incorrectly predicting the timing of the next CCKW?

[AxaltaRacing24]

I really think this storm is probably just a phantom storm. Maybe the models are incorrectly predicting the timing of the next CCKW?

That's would be the issue though. If the wave finds better conditions a bit later than expected, it's going to hit something.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands is currently producing limited and disorganized
shower activity. Conditions are expected to become more conducive
for development in a couple days, and a tropical depression could
form early next week while the system moves quickly westward across
the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[abajan]

I really think this storm is probably just a phantom storm. Maybe the models are incorrectly predicting the timing of the next CCKW?

I wouldn't be so sure about that. Rotation is becoming more evident on satellite imagery.

[gatorcane]

JMA quietly brings this through the Caribbean to a spot where it could start a recurve. I say quietly because the focus seems to be on invest 95l and the fact he GFS and Euro don’t show this kind of track:

[USTropics]

00z GFS bringing this back to a Caribbean cruiser, decent ridging building in tandem at 186 hours:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

00z GFS bringing this back to a Caribbean cruiser, decent ridging building in tandem at 186 hours:
https://i.imgur.com/Diqgf5H.png

Note: This is not the same system we've been tracking, this is yet another system that has yet to emerge off Africa behind this one.

[USTropics]

00z GFS bringing this back to a Caribbean cruiser, decent ridging building in tandem at 186 hours:
https://i.imgur.com/Diqgf5H.png

Note: This is not the same system we've been tracking, this is yet another system that has yet to emerge off Africa behind this one.

This spawns from the wave currently at 30W:


00z GFS 700mb vort loop:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Ah, I see it. So they are the same systems, just the ECMWF is significantly faster with it than the GFS.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I was watching the 00z GFS 95L run from the CONUS view, then I see this wave come out of nowhere after the GFS hasn't been developing it for like a day LOL.

[SconnieCane]

Ugh. Goes south of Hispaniola and it still manages to turn it into another NW Bahamas crusher/S. Florida teaser.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave located midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and
the Lesser Antilles is producing a large but disorganized area of
cloudiness and showers. Conditions are expected to become more
conducive for development in a couple days, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while the system moves
westward across the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[plasticup]

Is this the wave they just designated 96L?