ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#281 Postby Evil Jeremy » Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:43 pm

12z GFS ensembles have spread out more north and south from their generally clustered 06z, but the average is still the same early on: South Florida. After that, many ensembles take 95L to Louisiana and Texas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#282 Postby STRiZZY » Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:51 pm

12z Euro is up and running
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#283 Postby STRiZZY » Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:54 pm

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ECMWF 24HRS

Looks a touch east of the 00z
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#284 Postby chris_fit » Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:56 pm

12Z EURO has a TD by 8am tomorrow... judging by how it looks right now, I highly doubt that...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#285 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:56 pm

The 12z GEFS might be starting to show signs of an eastwards shift coming in the legacy model and ensembles with the stronger signal showing up on the eastern solutions for the 12z ensemble run compared to the 6z run. What I find interesting is the the updated GFS has also been west and mostly in agreement with the Legacy's ensembles.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#286 Postby chris_fit » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:01 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#287 Postby LarryWx » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:05 pm

12Z Euro: a bit W of 0Z and close to 6Z so far just offshore FL
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#288 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:05 pm

12z EURO is west near SFL..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#289 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:06 pm




Stronger vort right over Grand Bahama Island on this image :cry:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#290 Postby STRiZZY » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:07 pm

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72Hr
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#291 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:07 pm

LarryWx wrote:12Z Euro: a bit W of 0Z and close to 6Z so far just offshore FL


Yes.Much closer to the Florida coast .
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#292 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:08 pm

12z Euro cuts almost due N @ 72hrs just off the FL E Coast ala Dorian
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#293 Postby chris_fit » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:16 pm

Dorian 2.0

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#294 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:17 pm

998 mb depicted by 12Z EURO just off Daytona Beach on Sunday morning .
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#295 Postby TallyTracker » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:18 pm

chris_fit wrote:Dorian 2.0

https://i.imgur.com/s7klZMk.png


The Carolinas don’t need that verifying either. The North Carolina coast got whacked by Dorian. That would also be another major round of beach erosion.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#296 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:21 pm

Bringing to mind Diana-1984.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#297 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:26 pm

120 hr. EURO has future Humberto as a Cat 1 tropical cyclone (983 mb) about 120 miles east of Charleston, SC
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:31 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#298 Postby chris_fit » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:30 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#299 Postby chris_fit » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:36 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#300 Postby chris_fit » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:37 pm

That's likely a cat4 - 944mb
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