ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Looks like it might have actually closed off.. right over san Salvador island. and luckily recon is almost there. weakly of ocurse.

Hmm .. Looks highly sheared with a very broad ill defined circulation. Just based on satellite appearance this afternoon i am siding with the GFS on keeping this weak and probably not attending a name. We shall see

I have seen invests which has looked even worse than this one and have been designated a TD, If Recon finds a broad closed circulation, NHC will designate it. We will see what they report in shortly.

[SFLcane]

Looks like it might have actually closed off.. right over san Salvador island. and luckily recon is almost there. weakly of ocurse.

We’ll recon will have radar to tell where to look but your location is a good bet but there also could be something under the convection

it is under the convection.

If that's the case this thing in my opinion will more then likely head north and northeast and not impact land but we shall see.

[ronjon]

I dunno - circulation looks broad and elongated. I wouldn't classify it...yet.

[Aric Dunn]

I dunno - circulation looks broad and elongated. I wouldn't classify it...yet.

oh of course it is still disorganized. but it looks like the NE lobe has it's first west winds in there. that will take time to grow.

[Evil Jeremy]

I dunno - circulation looks broad and elongated. I wouldn't classify it...yet.

oh of course it is still disorganized. but it looks like the NE lobe has it's first west winds in there. that will take time to grow.

Do you think it's Pre-Tropical Cyclone worthy at 5pm?

[Aric Dunn]

I dunno - circulation looks broad and elongated. I wouldn't classify it...yet.

oh of course it is still disorganized. but it looks like the NE lobe has it's first west winds in there. that will take time to grow.

Do you think it's Pre-Tropical Cyclone worthy at 5pm?

given the "potential" lol I would say so.

[Nimbus]

At least recon won't need to fly south of crooked island, but there are new hot towers further NE and the vort north of San Salvador island may be ejecting.

[StruThiO]

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1172240625355448320

[tropicwatch]

HH did find at least one wind area of wind change around Pipe Cay. Just east of Andros Island.

[northjaxpro]

Recon found tropical storm force winds. Still trying to close off a circulation

[Hurricaneman]

HH did find at least one wind area of wind change around Pipe Cay. Just east of Andros Island.

Probably an eddy

[Aric Dunn]

pretty much where I thought it was.. they still need to do another pass. of course still coming together. but a little more convection and it should become more defined over the next few hours.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1172246509276057600

[SFLcane]

Should get more wnw before a llc can get established.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like the ULL in the GOM is moving west...that is what is causing the shear currently

[ronjon]

Should get more wnw before a llc can get established.

If it ever does....

[MGC]

Convection looks to be getting a bit more robust....I would think a circulation could close off by tomorrow if the trend continues....MGC

[plasticup]

You know who doesn't need any more rain right now? Grand Bahama. Really poor timing.

[wxman57]

NHC's track precisely follows the TVCN consensus, which considers the GFS a viable possibility. I think their track will shift east with time. I have a Cat 2 hurricane off the Carolinas next Wed/Thu.

[NDG]

Definitely a COC getting better organized this afternoon just in time for the recon.