ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#401 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:58 pm

Good chunk of broward in the PTC cone now.

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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#402 Postby Jr0d » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:01 pm

Certainly not what the Northern Bahamas need with their ongoing relief and recover efforts.

A lot of uncertainty for sure. I'm concerned about the Euro model blowing it up off NC then having it turn west towards the NE CONUS. We definately need more sampling data to feed the models.

It will be another busy weekend and beyond for us weather guessers.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#403 Postby psyclone » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:05 pm

I've noticed that the first track on a system seems really prone to big changes...that is probably even more the case with a PTC. Certainly agree with those inclined to shift east. expect the Carolina crew to awaken soon. I sure would..
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#404 Postby DestinHurricane » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:09 pm

So almost no chance this will shift west rather than east?
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#405 Postby Canelaw99 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:09 pm

SFLcane wrote:Good chunk of broward in the PTC cone now.

https://i.imgur.com/l74O7uO.jpg


I will happily take it here in Dade if it will spare Abaco/Grand Bahama right now. Breaks my heart to see them with a potential storm.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#406 Postby Emmett_Brown » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:19 pm

Tidbits recon page not showing any updates from the plane for over 20 minutes, does anyone know if the mission is still in progress?
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#407 Postby jfk08c » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:19 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:So almost no chance this will shift west rather than east?


Based off models, those that have the system more organized have it headed on a more eastern path. Alternately, the models with a less developed system steer it more west into Florida. Most are assuming that the system will begin to organize either tonight or tomorrow which would lead to the theories of a more eastern path off the east coast of FL. This is just an assumption, though. Still has a lot of what-if's involved
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#408 Postby Emmett_Brown » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:22 pm

Emmett_Brown wrote:Tidbits recon page not showing any updates from the plane for over 20 minutes, does anyone know if the mission is still in progress?


Never mind, it is updating now. They are not finding much down there, but pressures are generally low
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#409 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:23 pm

i think plane find open wave no low
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#410 Postby psyclone » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:23 pm

WPC update confines the meaningful QPF to near the southeast coast and strips all of it away from the Gulf region...and south Florida for that matter..

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1568323511
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#411 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:24 pm

Waters have warmed back up near Grand Bahama and over the gulf stream but not as warm as before Dorian but plenty warm enough.

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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#412 Postby StruThiO » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:26 pm

:double:


A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#413 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:26 pm

floridasun78 wrote:i think plane find open wave no low


They found plenty of SW winds so far, closed broad Low but no defined LLC yet.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#414 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:34 pm

NDG wrote:
floridasun78 wrote:i think plane find open wave no low


They found plenty of SW winds so far, closed broad Low but no defined LLC yet.




yep becoming more defined now as well.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#415 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:37 pm

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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#416 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:37 pm

center should shift and get pulled even more easterly now.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#417 Postby jfk08c » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:39 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:center should shift and get pulled even more easterly now.


What would cause this?
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#418 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:40 pm

jfk08c wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:center should shift and get pulled even more easterly now.


What would cause this?



The convection being pushed off the east still. Center should follow it.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#419 Postby N2FSU » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:42 pm

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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#420 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:50 pm

I think that the consensus model, which the NHC relies upon heavily, is being drawn too far west by the outlier GFS model. Generally, the consensus is the best track to follow. However, when there is a significant model split in the model guidance, the consensus is generally wrong. I think that the GFS will trend east of Florida with time, and the consensus will shift offshore. NHC track will follow. The offshore track will allow for significant strengthening off the SE U.S. Coast early next week, as the EC suggests.
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