
ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- SFLcane
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion
Good chunk of broward in the PTC cone now.


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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion
Certainly not what the Northern Bahamas need with their ongoing relief and recover efforts.
A lot of uncertainty for sure. I'm concerned about the Euro model blowing it up off NC then having it turn west towards the NE CONUS. We definately need more sampling data to feed the models.
It will be another busy weekend and beyond for us weather guessers.
A lot of uncertainty for sure. I'm concerned about the Euro model blowing it up off NC then having it turn west towards the NE CONUS. We definately need more sampling data to feed the models.
It will be another busy weekend and beyond for us weather guessers.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion
I've noticed that the first track on a system seems really prone to big changes...that is probably even more the case with a PTC. Certainly agree with those inclined to shift east. expect the Carolina crew to awaken soon. I sure would..
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- DestinHurricane
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion
So almost no chance this will shift west rather than east?
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Michael 2018
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion
I will happily take it here in Dade if it will spare Abaco/Grand Bahama right now. Breaks my heart to see them with a potential storm.
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- Emmett_Brown
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion
Tidbits recon page not showing any updates from the plane for over 20 minutes, does anyone know if the mission is still in progress?
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion
DestinHurricane wrote:So almost no chance this will shift west rather than east?
Based off models, those that have the system more organized have it headed on a more eastern path. Alternately, the models with a less developed system steer it more west into Florida. Most are assuming that the system will begin to organize either tonight or tomorrow which would lead to the theories of a more eastern path off the east coast of FL. This is just an assumption, though. Still has a lot of what-if's involved
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- Emmett_Brown
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion
Emmett_Brown wrote:Tidbits recon page not showing any updates from the plane for over 20 minutes, does anyone know if the mission is still in progress?
Never mind, it is updating now. They are not finding much down there, but pressures are generally low
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion
WPC update confines the meaningful QPF to near the southeast coast and strips all of it away from the Gulf region...and south Florida for that matter..
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1568323511
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1568323511
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion
Waters have warmed back up near Grand Bahama and over the gulf stream but not as warm as before Dorian but plenty warm enough.


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- StruThiO
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion
floridasun78 wrote:i think plane find open wave no low
They found plenty of SW winds so far, closed broad Low but no defined LLC yet.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion
NDG wrote:floridasun78 wrote:i think plane find open wave no low
They found plenty of SW winds so far, closed broad Low but no defined LLC yet.
yep becoming more defined now as well.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion
center should shift and get pulled even more easterly now.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion
Aric Dunn wrote:center should shift and get pulled even more easterly now.
What would cause this?
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion
jfk08c wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:center should shift and get pulled even more easterly now.
What would cause this?
The convection being pushed off the east still. Center should follow it.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion
I think that the consensus model, which the NHC relies upon heavily, is being drawn too far west by the outlier GFS model. Generally, the consensus is the best track to follow. However, when there is a significant model split in the model guidance, the consensus is generally wrong. I think that the GFS will trend east of Florida with time, and the consensus will shift offshore. NHC track will follow. The offshore track will allow for significant strengthening off the SE U.S. Coast early next week, as the EC suggests.
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