#424 Postby Michele B » Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:01 pm
SFLcane wrote:abajan wrote:Satellite derived winds and surface observations indicate that the
disturbance in the Bahamas has not yet developed a closed
circulation, and that the winds are not strong at this time.
However, surface pressures remain low and environmental conditions
are favorable for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form
within the next day or two as the system moves toward the northwest
at 5 to 10 mph through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the
Florida Peninsula. Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories could be
needed later today or Friday, and interests in the central and
northwestern Bahamas as well as Florida should monitor the progress
of this disturbance. Regardless of development, this disturbance
will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas
through Friday, including areas of the northwestern Bahamas affected
by Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
still scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Um what? Thought we were dealing with sheared environment?
This is exactly what I see about all the "modeling."
The models don't seem to be able to account accurately for "shear," or weakening or strengthening shear.....leading to inaccurate forecasting. I'm thinking they are relying way too much on the "computer models," which are constantly having to be corrected for info that changes the progs. I think they know it, too, when I read that with Dorian, they got to a place that they broke out the slide rules and compasses! Back to the future and the old ways.....
Show me where I'm wrong in thinking this. It leads to lots of frustration.
I KNOW I can't be more frustrated than the promets, but still......
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