ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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wxman57
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#421 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:51 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
jfk08c wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:center should shift and get pulled even more easterly now.


What would cause this?



The convection being pushed off the east still. Center should follow it.


I always tell my team - the center follows the convection, not the other way around.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#422 Postby ronjon » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:58 pm

wxman57 wrote:I think that the consensus model, which the NHC relies upon heavily, is being drawn too far west by the outlier GFS model. Generally, the consensus is the best track to follow. However, when there is a significant model split in the model guidance, the consensus is generally wrong. I think that the GFS will trend east of Florida with time, and the consensus will shift offshore. NHC track will follow. The offshore track will allow for significant strengthening off the SE U.S. Coast early next week, as the EC suggests.


Or the GFS is right that it never develops...odds are with the Euro but sometimes the american models sniff out poor conditions.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#423 Postby aperson » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:59 pm

Levi's Tidbit is up for the day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuGSRKMn4WQ
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#424 Postby Michele B » Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:01 pm

SFLcane wrote:
abajan wrote:Satellite derived winds and surface observations indicate that the
disturbance in the Bahamas has not yet developed a closed
circulation, and that the winds are not strong at this time.
However, surface pressures remain low and environmental conditions
are favorable
for a tropical depression or tropical storm to form
within the next day or two as the system moves toward the northwest
at 5 to 10 mph through the northwestern Bahamas and toward the
Florida Peninsula. Potential Tropical Cyclone advisories could be
needed later today or Friday, and interests in the central and
northwestern Bahamas as well as Florida should monitor the progress
of this disturbance. Regardless of development, this disturbance
will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to portions of the Bahamas
through Friday, including areas of the northwestern Bahamas affected
by Hurricane Dorian. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
still scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.


Um what? Thought we were dealing with sheared environment?


This is exactly what I see about all the "modeling."

The models don't seem to be able to account accurately for "shear," or weakening or strengthening shear.....leading to inaccurate forecasting. I'm thinking they are relying way too much on the "computer models," which are constantly having to be corrected for info that changes the progs. I think they know it, too, when I read that with Dorian, they got to a place that they broke out the slide rules and compasses! Back to the future and the old ways.....

Show me where I'm wrong in thinking this. It leads to lots of frustration.

I KNOW I can't be more frustrated than the promets, but still......
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#425 Postby Michele B » Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:06 pm

psyclone wrote:Calendar tailwinds in mid September are more than sufficient to offset less than optimal conditions. It's sheared but it's tenacious and persistent which usually=eventual development. That doesn't necessarily mean a strong system...maybe just a lower end system. But our disturbance is already bringing weather to the Florida peninsula in the form of a tightening gradient and fast moving showers and storms.


One thing I'm noticing today is VERY strong easterly winds. Very strong.

Australian pines tilted waaay over. It's warm and dry, but very windy.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#426 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:09 pm

Elongated broad closed low pressure so far, but is definitely closed not an open wave.

Image
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#427 Postby Michele B » Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:11 pm

NDG wrote:Definitely a COC getting better organized this afternoon just in time for the recon.

https://i.imgur.com/Ijnq3RP.gif


So he likes having his picture taken!?!

LOL

:P
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#428 Postby NDG » Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:14 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
jfk08c wrote:
What would cause this?



The convection being pushed off the east still. Center should follow it.


I always tell my team - the center follows the convection, not the other way around.


You forget at least one exception, if the low level jet is strong the LLC leaves the convection behind and never reforms underneath the left behind mid level circulation, we see this many times when a TS reach the eastern Caribbean where the low level jet is strong with westerly shear above it.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#429 Postby abajan » Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:21 pm

Mark Sudduth's take on the situation.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#430 Postby wxman57 » Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:30 pm

aperson wrote:Levi's Tidbit is up for the day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuGSRKMn4WQ


Very good discussion. I highly recommend viewing.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#431 Postby hipshot » Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:43 pm

wxman57 wrote:
aperson wrote:Levi's Tidbit is up for the day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuGSRKMn4WQ


Very good discussion. I highly recommend viewing.

I always try to listen to his discussions because a laymen like me can actually understand what the heck is going on or at least what is forecast to happen.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#432 Postby tropicwatch » Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:12 pm

HH has had enough fun for now looks to be headed home.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#433 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 12, 2019 6:53 pm

Hammy wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Don’t forget the Euro and UK models busted big time in similar situations to this one. I can think of the one from 2015 where the those models wanted to send a hurricane into South Florida and GFS said nope and it was right. That invest passed through the Straits and later developed in the EGOM


If that was Erika, both models actually did that--and the Euro was the first to back off while the GFS kept pushing it into S FLorida.

Personally I'm not trusting any of the models until we get some recon data into them.


Hermine 2016. That is the one I am thinking about. Situation reminds me of that one. Euro and UK busted badly when it was an invest in the Bahamas calling for a hurricane into South Florida.The GFS called for a wave passing through the Straits and that is exactly what happened. Euro completely missed the upper low inducing shear over the Bahamas that came in from the NE.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#434 Postby weatherSnoop » Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:34 pm

wxman57 wrote:
aperson wrote:Levi's Tidbit is up for the day: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuGSRKMn4WQ


Very good discussion. I highly recommend viewing.

When necessary, I send his discussions to my sister in SAV. When I speak with her, I tell them what you are seeing...thank you for being here when you can.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#435 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:01 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#436 Postby toad strangler » Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:04 pm

Levi’s discussions are always top notch.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#437 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:10 pm

This thing is looking incredibly disorganized. Don’t discount the GFS. Probably a compromise of the GFS and Euro will be the outcome.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#438 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:19 pm



The upcoming pattern worries me a little. If PTC 9 is slow moving to the north, the ridge building in from the Central US into the Northeast could send a potential hurricane back into the Southeast US. In other words, a path similar to Jeanne comes to mind. We will see. Lots of uncertainty with this one.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#439 Postby GeneratorPower » Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:22 pm

MississippiWx wrote:


The upcoming pattern worries me a little. If PTC 9 is slow moving to the north, the ridge building in from the Central US into the Northeast could send a potential hurricane back into the Southeast US. In other words, a path similar to Jeanne comes to mind. We will see. Lots of uncertainty with this one.


If this thing starts crawling and stalling like Dorian my brain will turn to oatmeal. Euro does so well with these systems and we are not seeing too much of a stall yet.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#440 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 12, 2019 8:24 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:
MississippiWx wrote:


The upcoming pattern worries me a little. If PTC 9 is slow moving to the north, the ridge building in from the Central US into the Northeast could send a potential hurricane back into the Southeast US. In other words, a path similar to Jeanne comes to mind. We will see. Lots of uncertainty with this one.


If this thing starts crawling and stalling like Dorian my brain will turn to oatmeal. Euro does so well with these systems and we are not seeing too much of a stall yet.


I find the Euro does better when there is already a defined system with a defined low. Barry is another one it did poorly on earlier this year.
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