ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Socalhurcnegirl227]

Don’t forget the Euro and UK models busted big time in similar situations to this one. I can think of the one from 2015 where the those models wanted to send a hurricane into South Florida and GFS said nope and it was right. That invest passed through the Straits and later developed in the EGOM

If that was Erika, both models actually did that--and the Euro was the first to back off while the GFS kept pushing it into S FLorida.

Personally I'm not trusting any of the models until we get some recon data into them.

Hermine 2016. That is the one I am thinking about. Situation reminds me of that one. Euro and UK busted badly when it was an invest in the Bahamas calling for a hurricane into South Florida.The GFS called for a wave passing through the Straits and that is exactly what happened. Euro completely missed the upper low inducing shear over the Bahamas that came in from the NE.

oh god hermine was such a disaster all the way around lol. ill never forget how long she was labeled as an invest.

[northjaxpro]

https://i.ibb.co/TmJQFPr/15.gif

The upcoming pattern worries me a little. If PTC 9 is slow moving to the north, the ridge building in from the Central US into the Northeast could send a potential hurricane back into the Southeast US. In other words, a path similar to Jeanne comes to mind. We will see. Lots of uncertainty with this one.

If this thing starts crawling and stalling like Dorian my brain will turn to oatmeal. Euro does so well with these systems and we are not seeing too much of a stall yet.

As of the 8 p.m. advisory PTC 9 was stationary So the stalling has already begun and we do not even have a closed off LLC yet.

[GeneratorPower]

The upcoming pattern worries me a little. If PTC 9 is slow moving to the north, the ridge building in from the Central US into the Northeast could send a potential hurricane back into the Southeast US. In other words, a path similar to Jeanne comes to mind. We will see. Lots of uncertainty with this one.

If this thing starts crawling and stalling like Dorian my brain will turn to oatmeal. Euro does so well with these systems and we are not seeing too much of a stall yet.

I find the Euro does better when there is already a defined system with a defined low. Barry is another one it did poorly on earlier this year.

Yes. However, when the Euro gets it wrong, it’s always a sloppy mess of a system that stands no chance of getting its name retired. When it counts, Euro always does well. Anyway enough Eurworship for tonight. It’ll probably obliterate Pensacola on the 00z.

[wxman57]

One particular model is never right with all storms in all environments. In this case, the GFS doesn't appear to be handling the system well the first 24-48 hrs. It's way too far west. I don't believe it for a second. Was just plotting some model comparisons on my workstation. I plotted all models then removed the GFS. No other dynamic model is taking the center west of the east coast of Florida. I also see an NHC OFCI track in there (NHC official interpolated) that keeps the center offshore. Could be a sign of NHC tracks to come.

[MississippiWx]

If this thing starts crawling and stalling like Dorian my brain will turn to oatmeal. Euro does so well with these systems and we are not seeing too much of a stall yet.

I find the Euro does better when there is already a defined system with a defined low. Barry is another one it did poorly on earlier this year.

Yes. However, when the Euro gets it wrong, it’s always a sloppy mess of a system that stands no chance of getting its name retired. When it counts, Euro always does well. Anyway enough Eurworship for tonight. It’ll probably obliterate Pensacola on the 00z.

Even on the 12z Euro, PTC moves very slowly for 3-4 days once north of the Bahamas. It is in no hurry to go anywhere.

[Aric Dunn]

One thing to note.. the 12z EPS have a quite a few members the get trapped by the building ridge over the eastern US and dive WSW to even SW , loops, stalls just ebout every possible thing lol ... biggest spread in EPS members ..

[AnnularCane]

Even on the 12z Euro, PTC moves very slowly for 3-4 days once north of the Bahamas. It is in no hurry to go anywhere.

What's up with the steering currents (or lack of) around the Bahamas lately? Why do storms keep stalling there? Is that expected to change soon?

[sma10]

One thing to note.. the 12z EPS have a quite a few members the get trapped by the building ridge over the eastern US and dive WSW to even SW , loops, stalls just ebout every possible thing lol ... biggest spread in EPS members ..

https://i.ibb.co/kHg7d2f/Capture.png

Aric, by my count 35-40% members show a distinct southerly motion after stall

[psyclone]

This is not a case where you can automatically feel good once the system has passed your latitude..

[sma10]

This is not a case where you can automatically feel good once the system has passed your latitude..

0z NAM doesn't even get past the Cape now before stall/meander

[jlauderdal]

This is not a case where you can automatically feel good once the system has passed your latitude..

0z NAM doesn't even get past the Cape now before stall/meander

Time to go into nowcast mode until further notice, this system isnt organizing and its stalled

[eastcoastFL]

Pretty heavy squall coming thru palm city now. A lot of rain and thunder.

[eastcoastFL]

One thing to note.. the 12z EPS have a quite a few members the get trapped by the building ridge over the eastern US and dive WSW to even SW , loops, stalls just ebout every possible thing lol ... biggest spread in EPS members ..

https://i.ibb.co/kHg7d2f/Capture.png

Wow what a mess. Explains why the disco said that the spread was worse than usual

[jlauderdal]

Pretty heavy squall coming thru palm city now. A lot of rain and thunder.

Our sustained winds today have been higher than anything dorian offered

[eastcoastFL]

So were under a TS watch in treasure coast now..

[eastcoastFL]

Pretty heavy squall coming thru palm city now. A lot of rain and thunder.

Our sustained winds today have been higher than anything dorian offered

I was in Denver for Dorian so I guess I didn’t miss much

[jlauderdal]

So were under a TS watch in treasure coast now..

Yes, back to denver

[Aric Dunn]

That is a very interesting blow up of convection north of San salvador island.... the convective pattern and low level inflow with the mid level circ right there as well is indicative of a TC.

It may be happening..

[Hurricaneman]

That is a very interesting blow up of convection north of San salvador island.... the convective pattern and low level inflow with the mid level circ right there as well is indicative of a TC.

It may be happening..

They may find a surface low in that convection by morning I would think

[smithtim]

So were under a TS watch in treasure coast now..

Looks like all the way upto space coast too, upto the cape