ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

[BobHarlem]

00z models even further offshore when it’s all said and done PTC 9 might not affect anyone in FL.

I suspect 0z Euro will wind up further east as well. With the current setup, the rest of September is going to be active, but mostly full of MDR Fish systems it seems unless something pops up in the W Carib or Gulf, after Dorian I'm very glad for that. If the system does stall offshore it'll bound to make people nervous though.

[TheProfessor]

It appears to me that within the next 12-24 hours we will know whether or not the GFS is correct. It keeps 850mb vorticity weak and elongated and it never becomes stacked with the 500mb vorticity. Meanwhile in 24 hours the Euro has a closed low and possible depression just east of the Bahamas. So there will probably be one scenario eliminated by this time tomorrow(probably the GFS). It does appear that we could see this storm become a nightmare for a long time in the Euro is correct with it traveling east of Florida until the ridge builds in over top and causing a potential stall.

[Frank2]

The entire area certainly looks elongated w-e this evening...

[Frank2]

I suspect 0z Euro will wind up further east as well. With the current setup, the rest of September is going to be active, but mostly full of MDR Fish systems it seems unless something pops up in the W Carib or Gulf, after Dorian I'm very glad for that. If the system does stall offshore it'll bound to make people nervous though.

Yes, even Joe Bastardi has backed off his dire prediction of a few days ago for the period starting on the 20th, the long-term pattern as you said now favoring recurves of any MDR system. A few months ago a media Pro Met (I forget who) did mention an early Winter in the east and it seems to be heading in that direction.

[Hammy]

Given what the NAM is showing (and it did fairly well with Erin's pre-development) it appears that the shift north and east all hinges on a redevelopment of the LLC towards the north which in turn changes the whole dynamic of the situation and leads to a northward (and possibly stronger) solution.

[aperson]

Given what the NAM is showing (and it did fairly well with Erin's pre-development) it appears that the shift north and east all hinges on a redevelopment of the LLC towards the north which in turn changes the whole dynamic of the situation and leads to a northward (and possibly stronger) solution.

We are talking in discord about the same thing in the HRRR. The disturbance itself looks fairly stationary now, but the vort looks to consolidate downshear to the NNE several hours from now.

[p1nheadlarry]

I suspect 0z Euro will wind up further east as well. With the current setup, the rest of September is going to be active, but mostly full of MDR Fish systems it seems unless something pops up in the W Carib or Gulf, after Dorian I'm very glad for that. If the system does stall offshore it'll bound to make people nervous though.

Yes, even Joe Bastardi has backed off his dire prediction of a few days ago for the period starting on the 20th, the long-term pattern as you said now favoring recurves of any MDR system. A few months ago a media Pro Met (I forget who) did mention an early Winter in the east and it seems to be heading in that direction.

Could be AO related? -AO last several months which weakens zonal component of jet stream. 2017/18 were +AO mostly. (NAO is basically an Atlantic version of AO, calculated same way so they’re very close. Just personally more aware of AO). Like AO also, NAO is mostly a winter signal.

[Hurricaneman]

Looks as though the GFS is trending towards the consensus this run but not there yet

[Hurricaneman]

If what’s being said is true in the other thread, the GFS is initiating in the wrong spot by about 50 miles which would make the current run trash for this system. The Euro has a much better initialization in its 18z run as it initializes just north of San Salvador Island

[DESTRUCTION5]

00z GFS joining the theme of a loop back S and Sw off se coast.

[N2FSU]

0z does shift east to the Big Bend, but then gets blocked and moves back Southeast in the Atlantic, down to about Melbourne.


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[DESTRUCTION5]

0z does shift east to the Big Bend, but then gets blocked and moves back Southeast in the Atlantic, down to about Melbourne.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190913/13442a8ebfafbb2096ac474bd08d2d71.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190913/1440e956eb69636e16e7d6394325c9ba.jpg


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Makes complete loop with 2nd landfall in Treasure Coast

[sma10]

The GFS is just full of mischief this run.

It's pulling PTC around into S Florida, there is a reflection of the new wave in the w carib, and a hurricane in the windwards

[northjaxpro]

That is an most interesting 00Z GFS run.

[HDGator]

0z does shift east to the Big Bend, but then gets blocked and moves back Southeast in the Atlantic, down to about Melbourne.https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190913/13442a8ebfafbb2096ac474bd08d2d71.jpg https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190913/1440e956eb69636e16e7d6394325c9ba.jpg


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Makes complete loop with 2nd landfall in Treasure Coast

The GFS really builds that ridge back in strong and sends him South and East with some minor strengthening all the way from GA/SC to get there.
That's more concerning about what happens over the next two days.
If the center forms more east than the 00z has it. Does it get trapped further South and East - off coast with the potential for more strengthening before getting trapped and sent west.
Still watching with too many questions.

[LarryWx]

0Z Gfs, Legacy, CMC, JMA, and ICON all east of previous runs and increase the chance this stays off FL and never landfalls in the US. At least the trend is there for that to occur. We’ll see.

[chaser1]

0Z Gfs, Legacy, CMC, JMA, and ICON all east of previous runs and increase the chance this stays off FL and never landfalls in the US. At least the trend is there for that to occur. We’ll see.

"....the trend is your friend......

[LarryWx]

0Z Gfs, Legacy, CMC, JMA, and ICON all east of previous runs and increase the chance this stays off FL and never landfalls in the US. At least the trend is there for that to occur. We’ll see.

"....the trend is your friend......

Speaking of this east trend, I just saw the 18Z EPS and its mean is significantly east of the 12Z EPS mean. Let’s see if the 0Z Euro is at least as far east as the 18Z (which I expect) rather than reverting back west.

Anyone see the 0Z UKMET yet? If so, how was it vs the 12Z?

[AJC3]

0Z Gfs, Legacy, CMC, JMA, and ICON all east of previous runs and increase the chance this stays off FL and never landfalls in the US. At least the trend is there for that to occur. We’ll see.

"....the trend is your friend......

Speaking of this east trend, I just saw the 18Z EPS and its mean is significantly east of the 12Z EPS mean. Let’s see if the 0Z Euro is at least as far east as the 18Z (which I expect) rather than reverting back west.

Anyone see the 0Z UKMET yet? If so, how was it vs the 12Z?

Barely gets west of 79W...

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 27.8N 78.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2019 48 27.8N 78.4W 1009 32
1200UTC 15.09.2019 60 29.0N 79.1W 1007 36
0000UTC 16.09.2019 72 30.1N 78.7W 999 53
1200UTC 16.09.2019 84 30.3N 77.6W 989 60
0000UTC 17.09.2019 96 30.5N 76.1W 979 63
1200UTC 17.09.2019 108 30.7N 74.6W 967 64
0000UTC 18.09.2019 120 30.9N 72.4W 956 80
1200UTC 18.09.2019 132 31.2N 69.8W 944 86
0000UTC 19.09.2019 144 32.0N 66.6W 934 92

[LarryWx]

Hour 30 of 0Z Euro even further east than the 18Z. Very good chance at staying OTS.