ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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aperson
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#481 Postby aperson » Fri Sep 13, 2019 1:30 am

LarryWx wrote:Who would have thought all of those early ICON runs with a TC just E of FL and well east of the then model consensus would now have an excellent chance to verify way too far west?! This kind of stuff is so fascinating and makes tracking these enjoyable because they are such a challenge.


I must say, if nothing else the ICON is interesting to have in the mix to protect against under-dispersion.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#482 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:17 am

Yeah, I have already several times mentioned this Larry and indeed it deserves mention again that the ICON was the very first to sniff out the far north and east solutuon of 95L / PTC 9 well before the big reliiable models. I definitely tip my hat to the model!
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#483 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 13, 2019 3:58 am

Looks like the UL Trough is breaking down.
Convective debris flowing in from the west.
Convection firing off from the dryline where Mid-level moisture from 9 is over-riding Boundary-layer dry air.

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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#484 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:02 am

Really good ventilation

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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#485 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:08 am

Hour and a half ago.
Off-the-scale rain-rate hot tower.

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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#486 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:16 am

Hot pink claws.
This puppy is intensifying.

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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#487 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:19 am

Look for the NHC track to keep shifting right today, along with a prediction for it to become a hurricane. Time for work...
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#488 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:28 am

That tower fired just to the SE of the Mid-Level Vort which is at 25.1N 75.2W
500mb vort definitely much tighter than yesterday.
Core is heating up.
This is sitting on the max convergence area of the LL wave axis.
Looks like it is also in the area with minimal shear due to the UL trough, which is starting to breakdown.


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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#489 Postby xironman » Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:43 am

The Bahama radar shows it trying to close off east of Cat Island.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#490 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 13, 2019 5:16 am

Glad to see this morning that it is still has an elongated circulation, a more defined LLC looks to not have developed just yet. That more westward track has not begun yet, the relentless westerly shear has been keeping the convection east of it.

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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#491 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 13, 2019 5:24 am

On Bahamian radar the elongated circulation can be clearly seen, ENE of Cat Island.

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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#492 Postby Kazmit » Fri Sep 13, 2019 5:35 am

wxman57 wrote:Look for the NHC track to keep shifting right today, along with a prediction for it to become a hurricane. Time for work...

A bit surprised to hear this from you. :eek:
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#493 Postby Ken711 » Fri Sep 13, 2019 5:40 am

wxman57 wrote:Look for the NHC track to keep shifting right today, along with a prediction for it to become a hurricane. Time for work...


Do you think it will bend OTS eventually?

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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#494 Postby CronkPSU » Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:11 am

looks like NHC pushed back possible florida east central coast arrival back by at least 12 hours, maybe the UCF/Stanford game won't be as wet as it looked like it would be from yesterday's forecast
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#495 Postby CronkPSU » Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:36 am

8:00 AM EDT Fri Sep 13
Location: 25.1°N 75.3°W
Moving: NW at 6 mph
Min pressure: 1009 mb
Max sustained: 30 mph

8AM update also says Air Force recon plane is en route
Last edited by CronkPSU on Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#496 Postby wxman57 » Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:36 am

I think it's more likely to clip the east end of Grand Bahama Island (NHC has west end) and stay about 70-80 miles off the Florida Coast (does not cross 80W) this weekend. Once it gets to about 30N, looks like it's going to put on the brakes and turn east, saying well off the coast of the Carolinas. This track would keep any TS winds east of Florida and well south of the Carolinas.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#497 Postby Emmett_Brown » Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:42 am

The progressive upper level pattern combined with a slow moving system means model runs could continue to change. Model agreement is good out to about 24 - 48 hours. Nowcasting is almost as effective. This is where the pros earn their money... It's not what the models say, it's how they are used.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#498 Postby GCANE » Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:42 am

Looks like its closing off on radar, east of Cat Island.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#499 Postby SFLcane » Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:43 am

Looks like 95L should miss the whole U.S.
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Re: ATL: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine - Discussion

#500 Postby NDG » Fri Sep 13, 2019 7:11 am

Weak naked LLC is just east of the northern tip of Cat Island, MLC is still west of it. What ill most like happen is that a new LLC will form later today closer to the MLC and convection.

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