ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricaneman]

Why does this give me Jeanne vibes for Florida, even the models are trending that way

[otowntiger]

Sounds like NHC pretty sure they’ll be shifting even further off shore. Apart from high surf and beach erosion it seems like Florida effects will be (could be) minimal. If it strengthens even more than forecast could act to dry us up even more by providing subsidence (sp?) we could end up with just some high clouds, and a breezy nice weekend. Please note I say ‘could’ as things of course could change. Bahamas could still be in for some rough weather unfortunately.

[GCANE]

A lot of convective debris coming thru the Strait.
The UL trough is going to be history in a few hours.

[Aric Dunn]

Another feeder band forming where that swirl was.
Gotta remember, really good outflow channels are in place.

Shear is dropping fast with a upper high building over it.

[wxman57]

Why does this give me Jeanne vibes for Florida, even the models are trending that way

I don't see such a trend. In fact, it appears that the threat to Florida is decreasing. The farther east the center consolidates, the farther east (offshore Florida) will be the track.

[GCANE]

A lot of cumulus forming over east half of Cuba.
Expect massive popups this afternoon.
9 is going to ignite this evening.

[GCANE]

Its about to close off on radar

[BYG Jacob]

Its about to close off on radar

Mid level or low level?

[SouthFLTropics]

Big-Ass Tower
Rotating Towers
Aric's Swirl
Feeder Band

Recon's flying the Feeder Band into the Big Ass Tower

https://i.imgur.com/WsdBfaO.png

Government agencies use a lot of acronyms...as such this shall be known as B.A.T.

We need the NHC to include the "technical term" Big Ass Tower in a discussion. That would make my year! LOL

[bqknight]

Why does this give me Jeanne vibes for Florida, even the models are trending that way

I don't see such a trend. In fact, it appears that the threat to Florida is decreasing. The farther east the center consolidates, the farther east (offshore Florida) will be the track.

Wx - what are your thoughts about some of the ensembles doing a loop? Phantom at this time? Or something to watch? It's obviously not the likely scenario at this time - but do they have any merit?

[Aric Dunn]

Why does this give me Jeanne vibes for Florida, even the models are trending that way

Yeah the eps and gfs ensembles are showing more of a possible. loop. I wouldnt go as far as Jeanne.

but even the 6z operational Euro turned ese to SE at the end of run.

So there is a slight trend... needs to be watched. the slower it moves the higher the loop scenario gets.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Why does this give me Jeanne vibes for Florida, even the models are trending that way

I don't see such a trend. In fact, it appears that the threat to Florida is decreasing. The farther east the center consolidates, the farther east (offshore Florida) will be the track.

I believe they're talking about the possibility shown on some of the Euro Ens. of the ridge building back in as the storm moves NE causing the storm to loop back around.

[GCANE]

Its about to close off on radar

Mid level or low level?

Based on the distance to the radar site, most likely lowish mid-level

[Sanibel]

Satellite vortex which is a sign of incomplete organization...

[Aric Dunn]

here we go.. recon heading back in.. lets see if they can get a good pass..

[wxman57]

Why does this give me Jeanne vibes for Florida, even the models are trending that way

I don't see such a trend. In fact, it appears that the threat to Florida is decreasing. The farther east the center consolidates, the farther east (offshore Florida) will be the track.

Wx - what are your thoughts about some of the ensembles doing a loop? Phantom at this time? Or something to watch? It's obviously not the likely scenario at this time - but do they have any merit?

Some ensembles take the storm to the Bay of Campeche, but that doesn't mean it's going over there. The storm may stall for a bit on Monday morning as it's making the ENE turn. Any loop would be quite small (a few miles), not something that would increase the threat to Florida or the Carolinas. With the center likely forming even farther to the east today, I'm adjusting the forecast farther offshore Florida for the next advisory. May need to move it even farther east...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I don't see such a trend. In fact, it appears that the threat to Florida is decreasing. The farther east the center consolidates, the farther east (offshore Florida) will be the track.

Wx - what are your thoughts about some of the ensembles doing a loop? Phantom at this time? Or something to watch? It's obviously not the likely scenario at this time - but do they have any merit?

Some ensembles take the storm to the Bay of Campeche, but that doesn't mean it's going over there. The storm may stall for a bit on Monday morning as it's making the ENE turn. Any loop would be quite small (a few miles), not something that would increase the threat to Florida or the Carolinas. With the center likely forming even farther to the east today, I'm adjusting the forecast farther offshore Florida for the next advisory. May need to move it even farther east...

Can’t argue with the man. Ensembles were constantly day after day showing Dorian going into Florida, South Carolina, or even the gulf despite the operationals clearly missing it all and potentially just catching the outer banks. Personally I don’t think it’s anything to worry about at all.

[psyclone]

It definitely looks like the threat to florida is decreasing from what was already a low baseline. Certainly keep monitoring...but if we have a threat this year it's likely later and from the south rather than the east. The NHC track jumped a good bit east with the 11 am and is way east of the original...which leads me to believe additional eastward adjustments are more likely than not... I'd be most interested with this in Bermuda as far as a coherent TC threat down the road..

[Aric Dunn]

I know this is not the model thread.. but..... Just for reference to not let your guard down

6z euro that turns soon to be Humberto to the ese and SE at 80 hours has the ridging building north and NE. On this 6z run if it continued it would be fully trapped and likely be a complete loop back west.
with a good majority of the ensemble members showing similar scenarios, it would be prudent to not get caught up on the Out to sea yet.
and just to clear any doubt the 6z euro initialized the center to be where it is developing now.. soo yeah..

[Aric Dunn]

and recon find a defined center now.