ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

[aperson]

while 0z Euro headed OTS it certainly looks like that building ridge has some tricks up its sleeve

[sma10]

I must say the models are interesting to say the least, past 95L.

The GFS, CMC, Euro and UK all have cyclones spinning all over the dang place in the D7-10 range, and none are really in any agreement. Fun times ahead

[BobHarlem]

6z gfs has landfall near WPB but is generally east of 0z through 54 hours (inland along the east coast of Florida).

[DESTRUCTION5]

6z gfs has landfall near WPB but is generally east of 0z through 54 hours (inland along the east coast of Florida).

It's persistent if anything. Gets as far as the big bend before the eastward move back to the Atlantic.

[Nimbus]

Given what the NAM is showing (and it did fairly well with Erin's pre-development) it appears that the shift north and east all hinges on a redevelopment of the LLC towards the north which in turn changes the whole dynamic of the situation and leads to a northward (and possibly stronger) solution.

Well the NHC did shift the official track from inland Florida to the coast at the 5 AM.
Convection is still being sheared but seems to be consolidating east of San Salvador island this morning. The elongated circulation is probably still there but we may get a low level center closed off soon as the NHC predicts this will occur near 25N. GFS will then likely shift completely off shore once the center relocates. NHC not jumping on the major cane solutions yet due to forecast shear in 72 hours. That scenario would require RI during a pretty short period of favorable conditions unless there is a stall.

[Kazmit]

Several of the major models show this getting as far east as to affect Bermuda before heading OTS. I might have to watch this one too.

[NDG]

06z HWRF so far continues with its eastward shift, now well off the FL east coast.
The pattern since the beginning of the hurricane season continues of systems staying off of the FL east coast when they approach from the Bahamas, amazing.

[Ken711]

06z HWRF so far continues with its eastward shift, now well off the FL east coast.
The pattern since the beginning of the hurricane season continues of systems staying off of the FL east coast when they approach from the Bahamas, amazing.

https://i.imgur.com/voimCo4.png

A Dorian track perhaps.

[BobHarlem]

06z HWRF so far continues with its eastward shift, now well off the FL east coast.
The pattern since the beginning of the hurricane season continues of systems staying off of the FL east coast when they approach from the Bahamas, amazing.

https://i.imgur.com/voimCo4.png

A Dorian track perhaps.

The 6z HWRF trend is more of a Bermuda threat than anywhere in the SE US. (Once beyond the Bahamas.

[chris_fit]

06Z EURO showing hints of ESE movement at 75-90 hours - perhaps a loop? I know some ENS have been showing this

[NDG]

06Z EURO showing hints of ESE movement at 75-90 hours - perhaps a loop? I know some ENS have been showing this

Yes, about 1/3 of 0z Euro ensembles show it not going out to the east that fast and or make a loop back to the S.

[chris_fit]

06Z EURO showing hints of ESE movement at 75-90 hours - perhaps a loop? I know some ENS have been showing this

Yes, about 1/3 of 0z Euro ensembles show it not going out to the east that fast and or make a loop back to the SW.

[northjaxpro]

06Z EURO showing hints of ESE movement at 75-90 hours - perhaps a loop? I know some ENS have been showing this

Yeah that is something I will be closely watching by Tuesday. There are subtle hints that ridging will build in quite rapidly and will really cause future Humberto to really hit a brick wall just after he passes the 30 Latitude point. The cyclone will meander around into up through at least Wednesday. It will be interesting if some type if loop may occur as while just off the Southeast U.S. Atlantic Coast. It will be interesting for sure if this stall happens early this upcoming week.

[LarryWx]

The trend of the 6Z EPS is to just about take off the table of a stall followed by left turn into N FL to SC and to bring in a new slight possibility for a new scenario due to further south trends: a loop back to the FL Straits area. The 0Z EPS started ramping up this chance and the 6Z has about 15% of its members with a S to SW loop back WAY south. Regardless, the heavy favorite for now remains missing the US altogether.

[bqknight]

Although in the minority - there is definitely a camp of 6z Euro ensembles that loop this back around towards S. Florida. It appears that if the storm stays weaker - the model favors this solution - and if it's stronger it will get pulled out to sea.

[ronjon]

06Z EURO showing hints of ESE movement at 75-90 hours - perhaps a loop? I know some ENS have been showing this

Yeah that is something I will be closely watching by Tuesday. There are subtle hints that ridging will build in quite rapidly and will really cause future Humberto to really hit a brick wall just after he passes the 30 Latitude point. The cyclone will meander around into up through at least Wednesday. It will be interesting if some type if loop may occur as while just off the Southeast U.S. Atlantic Coast. It will be interesting for sure if this stall happens early this upcoming week.

Well this will make the 12z model suite definitely worth viewing - GFS was the first to latch on to the idea of a clockwise loop with this mornings run. Let's see if the ECM and other models follow suit.

[bamajammer4eva]

06Z EURO showing hints of ESE movement at 75-90 hours - perhaps a loop? I know some ENS have been showing this

Yeah that is something I will be closely watching by Tuesday. There are subtle hints that ridging will build in quite rapidly and will really cause future Humberto to really hit a brick wall just after he passes the 30 Latitude point. The cyclone will meander around into up through at least Wednesday. It will be interesting if some type if loop may occur as while just off the Southeast U.S. Atlantic Coast. It will be interesting for sure if this stall happens early this upcoming week.

Well this will make the 12z model suite definitely worth viewing - GFS was the first to latch on to the idea of a clockwise loop with this mornings run. Let's see if the ECM and other models follow suit.

The Euro Ens has actually been showing this since at least 00z

[Gums]

Salute!

Strange tracks have been seen before.

Humberto could be Betsy's child versus Dorian II.

Gums sends....

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Regarding the ensembles, put me in the camp for not believing a loop is a concern or possibility. Don’t have to go far back, just think about the ensembles for Dorian. For days they were continually showing some kind of westward tracks into the gulf, Florida, or South Carolina even though the operationals were all clearly showing him missing everything except the outer banks.

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS good ways E of the 06Z run