ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

The southern Vort is starting to gain energy and now convection.. northern vort is swinging west ..

this will mess with the models. the southern vort is a good deal south and west of where the 12z models just initialize it.. sooo who knows how this will play out which will take over.

[rbaker55]

that upper low is encompassing the entire gulf of mexico and wx over fla and bahamas with the shear, it looks like its slowed down some today, with a huge mass of convection in the east central gom. Very confused pattern for the entire region unitl that ULL gets out of the way.

[Stormcenter]

So what happens if the UL works down to surface and slows down?
How does that affect No. 9?

[boca]

The ULL in the gulf is producing SW shear on 9 so wouldn’t that nudge 9 on a N or NE course because of that?

[rbaker55]

The ULL in the gulf is producing SW shear on 9 so wouldn’t that nudge 9 on a N or NE course because of that?

at the upper levels it will just push convection off to the NE which is what your seeing now. At the lower levels the vortex is just spinning stationary over exuma island

[ronjon]

95L is a mess - looking rather linear like a frontal boundary and not a classic signature of tropical cyclone. I don't see this a depression anytime soon. Hmmm....maybe GFS was on to something. You can clearly see the LLC near Cat island devoid of convection. That ULL in the GOM seems to be stuck and not moving at all today.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=truecolor

[rbaker55]

95L is a mess - looking rather linear like a frontal boundary and not a classic signature of tropical cyclone. I don't see this a depression anytime soon. Hmmm....maybe GFS was on to something.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=truecolor

I don't think any model has a clue, until this thing decides it wants to become a storm or depression. The GFS went eastbound with the latest models output and going with the rest of them. Now its swirl is stationary and who knows?

[ronjon]

95L is a mess - looking rather linear like a frontal boundary and not a classic signature of tropical cyclone. I don't see this a depression anytime soon. Hmmm....maybe GFS was on to something.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=truecolor

I don't think any model has a clue, until this thing decides it wants to become a storm or depression. The GFS went eastbound with the latest models output and going with the rest of them. Now its swirl is stationary and who knows?

My reference to the GFS was its lack of enthusiasm toward significant development unlike the European model.

[typhoonty]

Well as it stands now the bulk of the convection is even east of the Bahamas

True - the main effects could very well miss the Bahamas and stay well south of Bermuda.

Correct. The rightward trend benefits not only the conus but them as well. Efforts to back yard shame someone for pointing out positive trends are tiresome. The obligatory walking on eggshells mentality after a big hit reduces the inclination of people to participate at a time when social media is depleting needed oxygen from specialty forums. I find it regrettable.

You are right, I should've made the point during Dorian or a bigger storm. No one deserves to be shamed unless they truly did something heinous, which I don't think being excited about positive trends eastward qualifies.

The point I was trying to make was more important than trying to crack skulls. I apologize if it came across that way.

[rbaker55]

95L is a mess - looking rather linear like a frontal boundary and not a classic signature of tropical cyclone. I don't see this a depression anytime soon. Hmmm....maybe GFS was on to something.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=truecolor

I don't think any model has a clue, until this thing decides it wants to become a storm or depression. The GFS went eastbound with the latest models output and going with the rest of them. Now its swirl is stationary and who knows?

My reference to the GFS was its lack of enthusiasm toward significant development unlike the European model.

Well in that case yes, its a trough that is trying but can't. But like the euro it was moving, its not moving.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE BAHAMAS...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY...

Go to the advisories thread for the full details.

[wx98]

Well now we have something lol

[SFLcane]

Well now we have something lol

Yea now we have a system that will not impact much land other then the unfortunate bahama islands.

[northjaxpro]

FINALLY!

[wx98]

It’s weak, but it’s there. Official intensity forecast calls for mid-grade Cat 1 heading east by Day 5, but I don’t think anything regarding track and intensity can be nailed down for a couple days...

[wx98]

Well now we have something lol

Yea now we have a system that will not impact much land other then the unfortunate bahama islands.

Also Bermuda by the middle of the week if the track verifies

[abajan]

Well now we have something lol

Yea now we have a system that will not impact much land other then the unfortunate bahama islands.

Not necessarily. For one, there's still Bermuda to consider. And there's still a possibility of it looping back towards Florida.

[cycloneye]

Well now we have something lol

Yea now we have a system that will not impact much land other then the unfortunate bahama islands.

Not necessarily. For one, there's still Bermuda to consider. And there's still a possibility of it looping back towards Florida.

Anything is possible in the tropics and subtropics.

[psyclone]

The continued eastward trend has yielded a dramatic reduction in TS wind probs in Florida. It make me wonder...If a TS watch hadn't already been issued for the east coast...would it be issued with this forecast? My guess is no. It's looking like a "legacy" watch now. Hopefully the trend continues. I would remain very interested in Bermuda with that 5 day..

[Aric Dunn]

FINALLY!

well at least I can call it something now... lol


but nothing much has changed., just waiting to see how the orginization pans out and timing..

we can through this model set out if the southern vort takes over..

convection is blowing up with it now.