ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
Every season we seem to go through the same thing! What seems logical to us (amateur meteorologist wanna-be's) based on what we learn from real meteorologists here (and some very intelligent students that are close to be/will become meteorologists one day) never seems to add up! The NHC is always right (+/- a few minor errors with a few storms)! Is it the FSU SuperEnsemble or what??? That's why they get payed the big bucks! Let's how this one goes...ST
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
DioBrando wrote:Juicy
https://tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2019091312/hwrf_satIR_09L_18.png
Looks like the HWRF "simulated" IR just took a snapshot of Dorian from when it was in that neck of the woods (with that big ragged eye and massive poleward outflow channel) and moved it east a few hundred miles.
Verbatim, the surf from that could take out a few NC beachfront homes weakened by Dorian.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
18 GEFS: all members 100+ miles offshore SE US
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
toad strangler wrote:LarryWx wrote:18 GEFS: all members 100+ miles offshore SE US
Sweeeet
EDIT: These are the 12z ensembles.
Last edited by Kazmit on Fri Sep 13, 2019 6:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: NINE - Models
LarryWx wrote:18 GEFS: all members 100+ miles offshore SE US
All members still run off the old GFS though
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
any update on the 18z Euro run?
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Just like Jon Snow..."I know nothing" except what I know, and most of what I know is gathered by the fine people of the NHC
Re: ATL: NINE - Models
CronkPSU wrote:any update on the 18z Euro run?
Almost identical to its earlier 12z run through 62 hrs.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
18Z NAVGEM going with a loop back into South Florida:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 18&set=All
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 18&set=All
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
gatorcane wrote:
Gator,
Can you give me the URL link to this model page? I lost my link
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: NINE - Models
The navgem tried to hit sofla with irene, tried to hit us with td9 and going to try again.gatorcane wrote:18Z NAVGEM going with a loop back into South Florida:
https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 18&set=All
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models
WeatherEmperor wrote:gatorcane wrote:https://i.postimgyYRLN6Mz/storm-09-ens.gif
Gator,
Can you give me the URL link to this model page? I lost my link
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots
Click on the ens tab.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
00z GFS a little slower and SE of 18z through 48 hrs...
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
Blown Away wrote:00z GFS a little slower and SE of 18z through 48 hrs...
Also at 72hrs seems to have a thumb ridge developing over it where previous runs didn’t so I want to see what this does after 3 days as it could still be like the previous run but wouldn’t be surprised to see a stall or loop back
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
I'm not seeing the chance for a loop/stall on this run. Pretty similar to the last, but even stronger.
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I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
Kazmit wrote:I'm not seeing the chance for a loop/stall on this run. Pretty similar to the last, but even stronger.
Yep, that trough will take anything away from the US but Bermuda may have to watch this carefully
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
Looking at this if this is any slower in the short term could have long term implications, the 0zGFS barely has the trough pick this up as it shows so if this is a touch slower it’s no guarantee it heads away from the US and would throw a monkey wrench into the forecast
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
Hurricaneman wrote:Looking at this if this is any slower in the short term could have long term implications, the 0zGFS barely has the trough pick this up as it shows so if this is a touch slower it’s no guarantee it heads away from the US and would throw a monkey wrench into the forecast
Exactly. It stalling out would give enough time for the high above it to erode and the trough to pick it up northward. It was pretty close to new england and halifax on the 12z euro before turning northeast. It went from east to due north and then northeast. I'm really interested in seeing the 0z tonight.
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