ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

What's with the green "pimple" of 5% wind speed chances sticking into the gulf?
Why might the NHC have done that?

It's reflective of slightly more generous wind probs over waters. You can see the same concept at work near the northern extent of lower probs on the NC coast. You can also get a feel for this concept by looking at the previous advisory wind maps. I've noticed this at work before..

[Aric Dunn]

So even the TS watches dropped off now at 11pm. So odd for a stalling system.

We clearly have to put some faith in them (never waivers).

[Aric Dunn]

Pretty substantial southerly shear vector right over the "mean" center. Very evident in any loop.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=l ... =undefined
Convective pattern is not conductive for reformation right now due to the angle of the flow from the mid levels up.

We have the flow from the upper low in the gulf fighting the upper ridging to the north. This is perfect model failure.

[Stormi]

https://i.imgur.com/cPPED3e.png

What's with the green "pimple" of 5% wind speed chances sticking into the gulf?
Why might the NHC have done that?

I was wondering the same, as I've never seen this before that I can remember.

[Stormi]

What's with the green "pimple" of 5% wind speed chances sticking into the gulf?
Why might the NHC have done that?

It's reflective of slightly more generous wind probs over waters. You can see the same concept at work near the northern extent of lower probs on the NC coast. You can also get a feel for this concept by looking at the previous advisory wind maps. I've noticed this at work before..

Thank you!

[HDGator]

Pretty substantial southerly shear vector right over the "mean" center. Very evident in any loop.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=l ... =undefined
Convective pattern is not conductive for reformation right now due to the angle of the flow from the mid levels up.

We have the flow from the upper low in the gulf fighting the upper ridging to the north. This is perfect model failure.

From what I can see, the circulation is getting more tilted to the east rather than better organized.
It looks like the lower levels are slowly drifting westward while the upper convection is still getting hammered eastward by the shear.
I wonder where the surface low is headed because that convection on the SE quadrant is still popping strong?
It's definitely getting less organized right now when the shear was supposed to start weakening.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out.... right after I thought I wouldn't stay up for the Euro take on this hot mess.

[Aric Dunn]

Pretty substantial southerly shear vector right over the "mean" center. Very evident in any loop.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=l ... =undefined
Convective pattern is not conductive for reformation right now due to the angle of the flow from the mid levels up.

We have the flow from the upper low in the gulf fighting the upper ridging to the north. This is perfect model failure.

From what I can see, the circulation is getting more tilted to the east rather than better organized.
It looks like the lower levels are slowly drifting westward while the upper convection is still getting hammered eastward by the shear.
I wonder where the surface low is headed because that convection on the SE quadrant is still popping strong?
It's definitely getting less organized right now when the shear was supposed to start weakening.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out.... right after I thought I wouldn't stay up for the Euro take on this hot mess.

Definitely some ambiguity... how it plays out who knows.

[HDGator]

Pretty substantial southerly shear vector right over the "mean" center. Very evident in any loop.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=l ... =undefined
Convective pattern is not conductive for reformation right now due to the angle of the flow from the mid levels up.

We have the flow from the upper low in the gulf fighting the upper ridging to the north. This is perfect model failure.

From what I can see, the circulation is getting more tilted to the east rather than better organized.
It looks like the lower levels are slowly drifting westward while the upper convection is still getting hammered eastward by the shear.
I wonder where the surface low is headed because that convection on the SE quadrant is still popping strong?
It's definitely getting less organized right now when the shear was supposed to start weakening.
It will be interesting to see how this plays out.... right after I thought I wouldn't stay up for the Euro take on this hot mess.

Definitely some ambiguity... how it plays out who knows.

After looking at it more, I think you're right that the southerly flow is more dominant shear than the westerly shear from the GOM ULL now.

[Craters]

What's with the green "pimple" of 5% wind speed chances sticking into the gulf?
Why might the NHC have done that?

It's reflective of slightly more generous wind probs over waters. You can see the same concept at work near the northern extent of lower probs on the NC coast. You can also get a feel for this concept by looking at the previous advisory wind maps. I've noticed this at work before..

Thank you!

Great avatar, Stormi!

(Some people notice things like that...)

[Aric Dunn]

where the circ has consolidated is no question anymore.

it is straight east of southern andros.. we just have to wait now for model to respond..

[HDGator]

where the circ has consolidated is no question anymore.

it is straight east of southern andros.. we just have to wait now for model to respond..

Looks like straight east of the south end of great abaco getting close to 26n 76w for a ballpark.
Strong convection still significantly southeast and northeast of center.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Seems pretty generous giving this storm a name at the current time. I know it's supposed to get its act together but currently it looks horrid.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[HDGator]

The 00z Euro is slightly slower and east.
He's sitting just ne of grand abaco at 00z Sunday heading slowly north through 00z Monday staying well east of CONUS. Then he recurves ENE picking up speed through 144 hr missing Bermuda to the north.

Let's see what tomorrow brings but the continued challenge of organization and the trend east by the models for a recurve is positive.
Let's hope the impacts to the Bahamas are minimal and he stays to the east with most of the convection east of center.

[eastcoastFL]

Looks like the nhc put a yellow x on the ull in the gulf. Is that normal?

[Hammy]

Looks like the nhc put a yellow x on the ull in the gulf. Is that normal?

Some of the models are indicating a surface low could form before moving inland, similar to Fernand's development.

[Tailspin]

https://go.usa.gov/xVUTB
Lots of dry air about.

[GCANE]

CoC right under the butt end of a UL Trough.
Mid-level moisture working its way into the trough.
Will likely take all day to clear out before any type of significant strengthening can occur.'

[xironman]

Naked swirl totally disengaged with the midlevel spin by Abaco. Don't see that intensifying very soon.

[NDG]

The best news this morning is that Humberto is mostly a naked swirl just east of Abaco with heaviest convection & TS force winds staying well north and east of the Island.

[GCANE]

Recon:
1003.6 mb extrap surface pressure