Disturbed weather in GOM (Is INVEST 98L)

[stormlover2013]

Still no model support for this outside of the RGEM which barely wants to close it off at the end of its run. not much but some squalls offshore and maybe into Texas after?
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1406&fh=19

Ukmet shows tropical storm around Houston

[Steve]

Cool. I didn’t look at last nights UK. So that’s 2. CMC has a tiny rotation on the central Texas Coast but not that much shower activity. Looks like the ICON 6z also has some closed isobars at the TX coast, so bear watch I guess.

[Portastorm]

Those of us in the drought-parched, scorched earth part of Texas would welcome a nice, wet tropical system. Bring it!

[KatDaddy]

Large portions of Texas could use the tropical moisture. I have been fortunate enough in NW Galveston County to get several tropical showers during the past 3 weeks.

[underthwx]

Looks like recon scheduled for tomorrow, in the West Gulf

[underthwx]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 141515
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SAT 14 SEPTEMBER 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2019
TCPOD NUMBER.....19-109

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 15/2230Z A. 15/2330Z
B. NOAA2 0909A HUMBERTO B. AFXXX 1009A HUMBERTO
C. 15/2100Z C. 15/2115Z
D. 29.4N 78.0W D. 29.5N 78.0W
E. 15/2200Z TO 16/0300Z E. 15/2300Z TO 16/0230Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
A. 16/1130Z
B. AFXXX 1109A HUMBERTO
C. 16/0900Z
D. 30.0N 77.0W
E. 16/1100Z TO 16/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75
A. 15/2000Z A. 16/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
C. 15/1830Z C. 16/0945Z
D. 25.0N 94.5W D. 26.0N 96.0W
E. 15/1930Z TO 15/2330Z E. 16/1100Z TO 16/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES INTO HUMBERTO WHILE SYSTEM
REMAINS A THREAT.
B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES INTO SUSPECT AREA IN WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.

4. REMARK: THE MISSION TASKED ON TCPOD 19-108 INTO THE
SUSPECT AREA EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WAS
CANCELED BY NHC AT 14/0800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[cycloneye]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 141515
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1115 AM EDT SAT 14 SEPTEMBER 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 15/1100Z TO 16/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2019
TCPOD NUMBER.....19-109

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 15/2230Z A. 15/2330Z
B. NOAA2 0909A HUMBERTO B. AFXXX 1009A HUMBERTO
C. 15/2100Z C. 15/2115Z
D. 29.4N 78.0W D. 29.5N 78.0W
E. 15/2200Z TO 16/0300Z E. 15/2300Z TO 16/0230Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
A. 16/1130Z
B. AFXXX 1109A HUMBERTO
C. 16/0900Z
D. 30.0N 77.0W
E. 16/1100Z TO 16/1430Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75
A. 15/2000Z A. 16/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
C. 15/1830Z C. 16/0945Z
D. 25.0N 94.5W D. 26.0N 96.0W
E. 15/1930Z TO 15/2330Z E. 16/1100Z TO 16/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES INTO HUMBERTO WHILE SYSTEM
REMAINS A THREAT.
B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES INTO SUSPECT AREA IN WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.

4. REMARK: THE MISSION TASKED ON TCPOD 19-108 INTO THE
SUSPECT AREA EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WAS
CANCELED BY NHC AT 14/0800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

Is better to post the TCPOD with the code so all the missions can be seen clearly.

Code: Select all

 2. SUSPECT AREA (WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO)
       FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74          FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75
       A. 15/2000Z                   A. 16/1130Z,1730Z
       B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST         B. AFXXX 0210A CYCLONE
       C. 15/1830Z                   C. 16/0945Z
       D. 25.0N 94.5W                D. 26.0N 96.0W
       E. 15/1930Z TO 15/2330Z       E. 16/1100Z TO 16/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT           F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    3. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES INTO HUMBERTO WHILE SYSTEM
          REMAINS A THREAT.
       B. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES INTO SUSPECT AREA IN WESTERN
          GULF OF MEXICO IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT.

[Steve]

Large portions of Texas could use the tropical moisture. I have been fortunate enough in NW Galveston County to get several tropical showers during the past 3 weeks.

ICON targets the Triangle and maybe northern and eastern suburbs of Houston with the heaviest rainfall threat. GFS doesn’t even show much moisture left brining less than 1/2” to coastal Texas. The truth probably lies somewhere between a couple of feet of rain and less than a half inch. ICON keeps firing off storms at the coast while GFS dissipates it. However it does add another 1/2” or so from 84-90 hours just along the coast

ICON accumulated rainfall
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 412&fh=180

GFS accumulated rainfall
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1412&fh=84

[stormlover2013]

20 inches from icon

[Steve]

20 inches from icon

CMC 00z was similar (foot/foot and a half of rain) but farther down the coast toward Port Lavaca and Victoria. See if its 12z moves the target farther up the coast than the 00z run
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 400&fh=240

[SoupBone]

So is this system where the flaring is happening, due east of the ULL?

[Steve]

So is this system where the flaring is happening, due east of the ULL?

Roughly yeah. Canadian backed off on rainfall and has probably even less than the GFS.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 412&fh=114

[jasons2k]

Gosh we need the rain, but we have to be careful what we wish for. Watching this one closely...

[Frank P]

Looks like a weak mid level swirl WSW of Tampa out in the eastern gulf via this radar loop...

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[SoupBone]

So the CMC brings it to Houston, but most others bring it between Port O'Connor and Corpus?

[Steve]

So the CMC brings it to Houston, but most others bring it between Port O'Connor and Corpus?

Icon is most up that way.

[cycloneye]

A large area of cloudiness and showers over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico is associated with an upper-level low and a weak surface
trough. Only slow development of this system is likely during
the next couple of days while it moves westward over the western
Gulf of Mexico. This system is forecast to move inland along
the northwestern Gulf coast by late Monday or Tuesday and
development is not expected after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[Stormcenter]

But invest yet?

[Cpv17]

So the CMC brings it to Houston, but most others bring it between Port O'Connor and Corpus?

We need this to go towards the mid TX coast. That way a lot more people who need the rain over Texas will get it. If this goes anywhere north of Matagorda most of the rain will be over Houston and points east of there into SWLA.

[GCANE]

Persistent Convection = Development of 700mb Vort