ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Kazmit]

It still looks pretty bad but pressure has dropped. I think it will spend today trying to organize before it starts taking off sometime tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

With its progress overnight. Out to sea except for possibly Bermuda is likely. Small possibility of stall and loop exist but that depends on strength and placement of ridges. Since there is no trough here. It comes down to which ridge is stronger and in a better position to influence humberto

[Emmett_Brown]

Motion has slowed this morning. Barely moving over the past 3 hours. Edit: Drifting around, probably wobbling as the convection wraps. Looks ready to wobble back NW soon.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1172867695618023425

[Emmett_Brown]

Quite a bit of convection filling in N of the center now. Trying to wrap, but max winds are still well removed from the LLC. Does look a little subtropical

[storm4u]

Storms starting to fire around the center.. this should ramp up soon

[Buck]

11:00 AM EDT Sat Sep 14
Location: 26.6°N 76.7°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

[GCANE]

IF, the system in the GOM develops more than expected, it may erode the southern end of the CONUS Ridge and sling shot Humberto a little more west, than currently forecasted, before it makes the recurve OTS.

[NewbieAboutcyclones]

95w in wpac is much better than this one. Imo

[AnnularCane]

The best news this morning is that Humberto is mostly a naked swirl just east of Abaco with heaviest convection & TS force winds staying well north and east of the Island.

https://i.imgur.com/8HAgpvi.gif

Gorgeous little swirl.

[Aric Dunn]

IF, the system in the GOM develops more than expected, it may erode the southern end of the CONUS Ridge and sling shot Humberto a little more west, than currently forecasted, before it makes the recurve OTS.

well not sure about that.. but the ridge over the south that is supposed to weaken seems to be doing the opposite at the moment. no exist route yet..

[northjaxpro]

So Humberto is currently stalled as of 11:00 a.m. advisory. We have another extremely slow moving cyclone in the vicinity of the Bahamas.

Thankfully at the moment the heaviest rains and wind is just to the north and east of the Abacos and I am just praying that this somehow stays this way for those suffering terribly in Dorian's aftermath.

However, this stationary position ŕight now gives me pause in that it will allow Humberto to organize and intensify since it will be in that area a bit longer unfortunately. This is not what we want this cyclone doing right now.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1172886870151368705

[Aric Dunn]

So Humberto is currently stalled as of 11:00 a.m. advisory. We have another extremely slow moving cyclone in the vicinity of the Bahamas.

Thankfully at the moment the heaviest rains and wind is just to the north and east of the Abacos and I am just praying that this somehow stays this way for those suffering terribly in Dorian's aftermath.

However, this stationary position ŕight now gives me pause in that it will allow Humberto to organize and intensify since it will be in that area a bit longer unfortunately. This is not what we want this cyclone doing right now.

Convection building and wraping around.. not looking like that will last.

[NDG]

Definitely starting to get better organized, LLC is tugging itself closer to the convection.

[GCANE]

IF, the system in the GOM develops more than expected, it may erode the southern end of the CONUS Ridge and sling shot Humberto a little more west, than currently forecasted, before it makes the recurve OTS.

well not sure about that.. but the ridge over the south that is supposed to weaken seems to be doing the opposite at the moment. no exist route yet..

https://i.ibb.co/VJn0SY9/6.gif

It is a big IF, but my thinking is that it may be a weakly coupled Fujiwhara effect.
Just something to add to the mix if something spins up in the GOM.
Of course, timing will play a big part in all this.

[Aric Dunn]

IF, the system in the GOM develops more than expected, it may erode the southern end of the CONUS Ridge and sling shot Humberto a little more west, than currently forecasted, before it makes the recurve OTS.

well not sure about that.. but the ridge over the south that is supposed to weaken seems to be doing the opposite at the moment. no exist route yet..

here is what we have..

this is what EURO says its supposed to look like right now for ridge placement.
looks like the Ridge coming from canada is about 500 miles north right now. and the ridge over the south is stronger and farther east... not sure what the models will do with this current setup vs the last model run..

[GCANE]

Definitely starting to get better organized, LLC is tugging itself closer to the convection.

https://i.imgur.com/CUxMSj0.gif

The dryline convection is also moving rapidly west taking out the UL trough.

[northjaxpro]

NDG yeah this is disturbing seeing this unfolding. A redeveloping and intensifying cyclone, which is stationary in the Bahamas currently.

[Emmett_Brown]

Recon finding stronger winds now in the NE quad. 50kt barb showing up.