ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
A good 1/3 of Euro ensembles still showing a not so fast track OTS or Bermuda bound.
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- GeneratorPower
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
NDG wrote:A good 1/3 of Euro ensembles still showing a not so fast track OTS or Bermuda bound.
https://i.imgur.com/lUQ0k0r.gif
The predictions of the many...outweigh...the predictions of the few. The ones coming back are pretty high pressures. Stronger ensembles take it farther from FL.
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
GeneratorPower wrote:NDG wrote:A good 1/3 of Euro ensembles still showing a not so fast track OTS or Bermuda bound.
https://i.imgur.com/lUQ0k0r.gif
The predictions of the many...outweigh...the predictions of the few. The ones coming back are pretty high pressures. Stronger ensembles take it farther from FL.
Quote would work if we were talking about TS Kirk
But yea, a stronger system would feel the trough more and be lured OTS.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
Well this is the strongest UKMET run I’ve ever seen for any storm:
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 26.6N 76.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2019 0 26.6N 76.1W 1007 33
0000UTC 15.09.2019 12 27.4N 77.1W 1003 39
1200UTC 15.09.2019 24 28.4N 77.6W 999 44
0000UTC 16.09.2019 36 29.2N 77.4W 988 54
1200UTC 16.09.2019 48 30.0N 76.5W 974 62
0000UTC 17.09.2019 60 30.7N 75.0W 967 65
1200UTC 17.09.2019 72 31.4N 73.6W 957 70
0000UTC 18.09.2019 84 32.2N 71.3W 942 88
1200UTC 18.09.2019 96 33.1N 68.4W 922 98
0000UTC 19.09.2019 108 34.4N 63.8W 917 103
1200UTC 19.09.2019 120 37.4N 57.9W 933 85
0000UTC 20.09.2019 132 40.0N 52.7W 964 66
1200UTC 20.09.2019 144 42.0N 44.6W 981 63
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 26.6N 76.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2019 0 26.6N 76.1W 1007 33
0000UTC 15.09.2019 12 27.4N 77.1W 1003 39
1200UTC 15.09.2019 24 28.4N 77.6W 999 44
0000UTC 16.09.2019 36 29.2N 77.4W 988 54
1200UTC 16.09.2019 48 30.0N 76.5W 974 62
0000UTC 17.09.2019 60 30.7N 75.0W 967 65
1200UTC 17.09.2019 72 31.4N 73.6W 957 70
0000UTC 18.09.2019 84 32.2N 71.3W 942 88
1200UTC 18.09.2019 96 33.1N 68.4W 922 98
0000UTC 19.09.2019 108 34.4N 63.8W 917 103
1200UTC 19.09.2019 120 37.4N 57.9W 933 85
0000UTC 20.09.2019 132 40.0N 52.7W 964 66
1200UTC 20.09.2019 144 42.0N 44.6W 981 63
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
Siker wrote:Well this is the strongest UKMET run I’ve ever seen for any storm:
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO ANALYSED POSITION : 26.6N 76.1W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2019 0 26.6N 76.1W 1007 33
0000UTC 15.09.2019 12 27.4N 77.1W 1003 39
1200UTC 15.09.2019 24 28.4N 77.6W 999 44
0000UTC 16.09.2019 36 29.2N 77.4W 988 54
1200UTC 16.09.2019 48 30.0N 76.5W 974 62
0000UTC 17.09.2019 60 30.7N 75.0W 967 65
1200UTC 17.09.2019 72 31.4N 73.6W 957 70
0000UTC 18.09.2019 84 32.2N 71.3W 942 88
1200UTC 18.09.2019 96 33.1N 68.4W 922 98
0000UTC 19.09.2019 108 34.4N 63.8W 917 103
1200UTC 19.09.2019 120 37.4N 57.9W 933 85
0000UTC 20.09.2019 132 40.0N 52.7W 964 66
1200UTC 20.09.2019 144 42.0N 44.6W 981 63
Bermuda hasn’t seen a storm like that in our lifetimes. That’s stronger than Fabian. A lot stronger
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- ScottNAtlanta
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
I've thought for a day or two that this looked like a loop-type scenario...we'll see if more members start to follow the loop
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
ScottNAtlanta wrote:I've thought for a day or two that this looked like a loop-type scenario...we'll see if more members start to follow the loop
what talking about their no loop going be pull too ne soon what member you talking about you explain more
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
Here we go... has to be at least half of the EPS stalling or looping then heading west anywhere from carolinas to SF
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:Here we go... has to be at least half of the EPS stalling or looping then heading west anywhere from carolinas to SF
https://i.ibb.co/7gmpRbc/7.gif
Good catch. I count 16 of the 51 (32%) that actually come back and either hit or skim the US, which is higher than the 0Z. Although the good news is that the ones that come back to FL are mainly weak, the bad news is that the ones that hit SC/NC aren’t.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:Here we go... has to be at least half of the EPS stalling or looping then heading west anywhere from carolinas to SF
https://i.ibb.co/7gmpRbc/7.gif
Can you post a higher res. of that? I can hardly see it. Thanks!
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
LarryWx wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Here we go... has to be at least half of the EPS stalling or looping then heading west anywhere from carolinas to SF
https://i.ibb.co/7gmpRbc/7.gif
Good catch. I count 16 of the 51 (32%) that actually come back and either hit or skim the US, which is higher than the 0Z. Although the good news is that the ones that come back to FL are mainly weak, the bad news is that the ones that hit SC/NC aren’t.
The shift is the amount from that secondary camp that starts to lift ots are now stalling then turning west.
the florida camp has not changed much in a few runs..
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:Here we go... has to be at least half of the EPS stalling or looping then heading west anywhere from carolinas to SF
https://i.ibb.co/7gmpRbc/7.gif
Can you post a higher res. of that? I can hardly see it. Thanks!
just updated weathernerds
https://www.weathernerds.org/models/ecens.html
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
NDG wrote:A good 1/3 of Euro ensembles still showing a not so fast track OTS or Bermuda bound.
https://i.imgur.com/lUQ0k0r.gif
Interesting how one goes to Savannah GA and another goes to Charleston SC.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
Yeah about 20% of the UKMET ensembles come back to Florida or the Carolinas.
https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?model=ukmo
https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/tceps.php?model=ukmo
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
Yep, almost half of Euro ensembles now show a not so fast OTS and or Bermuda solution, that's up from only around 1/3 of them showing it last night.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
If half the ensembles are showing a loop than a turn west the NHC isn’t buying it unless this is new info after the 5pm update came out.
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- Emmett_Brown
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
boca wrote:If half the ensembles are showing a loop than a turn west the NHC isn’t buying it unless this is new info after the 5pm update came out.
Well, the NHC blends all the tracks together... which is why they show very slow motion for the next 72 hours or so. So, they sort of are taking those into account, but just as an average.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
Emmett_Brown wrote:boca wrote:If half the ensembles are showing a loop than a turn west the NHC isn’t buying it unless this is new info after the 5pm update came out.
Well, the NHC blends all the tracks together... which is why they show very slow motion for the next 72 hours or so. So, they sort of are taking those into account, but just as an average.
their no loop going happen it will go pass close too bermuda and out to sea look at cone you see talking about
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