Tropical Wave in Central Tropical Atlantic (Is INVEST 97L)

[abajan]

Very likely to be designated Invest 97L later today.

[Hurricaneman]

The latest run of the GFS gets this near the Bahamas, seems like it’s trending west

[jlauderdal]

The latest run of the GFS gets this near the Bahamas, seems like it’s trending west

Ridge building in behind humberto, will have to monitor west trend

[AutoPenalti]

GFS loses it in the Bahamas...

[SFLcane]

The latest run of the GFS gets this near the Bahamas, seems like it’s trending west

GFS never really develops this wave there for takes it more westerly. Odds are if intensities it most likely would recurve.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS looks to drop it again through at least 132hrs.

[AutoPenalti]

The whole bait and switch with the GFS and some other models is getting old.

[gatorcane]

Trough after trough rolling off the east coast of the US looking a the 12Z guidance so these Cape Verde systems would likely recurve. In fact look at this one in the long-range: of course beyond about 5 days, we always trust the models.

[SFLcane]

The whole bait and switch with the GFS and some other models is getting old.

That's why can't really worry about storms til they form.

[SFLcane]

Trough after trough rolling off the east coast of the US looking a the 12Z guidance so these Cape Verde systems would likely recurve. In fact look at this one in the long-range: of course beyond about 5 days, we always trust the models.

https://i.postimg.cc/fT952H0m/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-42.png

Yeah looks like anything forming in the MDR should recurve during the next two weeks easily.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30/80.

A small low pressure system is producing an elongated area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central tropical
Atlantic. Slow development is anticipated during the next day or
two, but environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development by the middle of the week, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the system
moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

INVEST 97L is up