Disturbed weather in GOM (Is INVEST 98L)

[GCANE]

A couple Euro ensemble members initializes this in 24 hrs and further east than yesterday's run.
CMC initializes it in 6 hrs.

[cycloneye]

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico is associated with an upper-level
low and a weak surface trough. Some slight development of this
system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves
westward over the western Gulf of Mexico. The system is forecast to
move inland along the northwestern Gulf coast by late Monday or
Tuesday, and further development is not expected after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[GCANE]

Seeing a closed 500mb vort at 28.2N 87.7W
Large area of UL Divergence to the east.
Large area of LL Convergence to the south with very strong convection firing in a 4000 CAPE ridge.
Seems to be slowly brewing as the ULL is slowly moving to the west and weakening.

[SoupBone]

What's with all of the flaring south of Louisiana?

[Cpv17]

It looks to me like this system will come onshore anywhere between Port Aransas and Port O’Connor and it wouldn’t surprise me if it closes off right before landfall.

[underthwx]

It looks to me like this system will come onshore anywhere between Port Aransas and Port O’Connor and it wouldn’t surprise me if it closes off right before landfall.

Yup...i agree... This time of year in the Gulf, if the shear lessens, I believe that is what they are saying is possible.

[Cpv17]

Our crazy uncle CMC is going bonkers with rainfall over southeast TX. 10-20”+ from this system.

[SoupBone]

Our crazy uncle CMC is going bonkers with rainfall over southeast TX. 10-20”+ from this system.

And the GFS only shows around 2", if that in most places. And it's fairly naked right now, except for the north and northeast where it's flaring up. Who knows?

[underthwx]

I wonder if Recon mission scheduled, will still take place?

[Cpv17]

Our crazy uncle CMC is going bonkers with rainfall over southeast TX. 10-20”+ from this system.

And the GFS only shows around 2", if that in most places. And it's fairly naked right now, except for the north and northeast where it's flaring up. Who knows?

Well the NAM has some pretty decent totals too, just not as widespread and the RGEM looks like it’s lining up to give us some decent totals too at the end of its run.

[srainhoutx]

I wonder if Recon mission scheduled, will still take place?

RECON mission has been cancelled.

[SoupBone]

I wonder if Recon mission scheduled, will still take place?

RECON mission has been cancelled.

That probably tells the whole story about this system. It's also down to 10% chance of development.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the
central and eastern Gulf of Mexico is associated with an upper-level
low and a weak surface trough. Some slight development of this
system is possible during the next couple of days while it moves
westward over the western Gulf of Mexico. The system is forecast to
move inland along the northwestern Gulf coast by late Monday or
Tuesday, and further development is not expected after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[mpic]

Houston channels are giving us a good chance of 1-5 inches of rain that we desperately need.

[Cpv17]

12z Euro looks like lots of rain of southeast TX.

[SoupBone]

Houston channels are giving us a good chance of 1-5 inches of rain that we desperately need.

Yeah, just spitballing based on its current appearance, we could see that or maybe a little more, but I just don't see the CMC verifying unless it stalls and has a continued offshore source of moisture to draw from.

[srainhoutx]

Houston channels are giving us a good chance of 1-5 inches of rain that we desperately need.

Yeah, just spitballing based on its current appearance, we could see that or maybe a little more, but I just don't see the CMC verifying unless it stalls and has a continued offshore source of moisture to draw from.

Which is exactly what the 12Z Euro is suggesting as well as the WPC as the steering flow collapses over Texas. Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall has been issued along the Coast Tuesday and inland to Austin on Wednesday. The afternoon Updated QPF graphics will be increased for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday for Texas.

[Stormcenter]

So everyone seems to be focused on the
upper low but most of the activity seems to be
in the eastern central GOM and not moving much.

[Stormcenter]

So everyone seems to be focused on the
upper low but most of the activity seems to be
in the eastern central GOM and not moving much.

[lrak]

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001 ....interesting a pressure drop along with some slight west winds. And the pictures don't show any storm around so doesn't look like it's from a TS?