ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 97, 2019, DB, O, 2019091118, 9999999999, , 022, , , 8, METWATCH, , AL972019

AL, 97, 2019091518, , BEST, 0, 87N, 405W, 25, 1009, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 120, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 022, SPAWNINVEST, al752019 to al972019,

Thread at talking tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120562

Post away

[gatorcane]

Looks fishy at the moment

[HurricaneAndre2008]

Invest 97L
As of 18:00 UTC Sep 15, 2019:

Location: 8.7°N 40.5°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Looks fishy at the moment

Regarding the pic of the trough you posted on the other thread, that is the front that the gfs has been showing for days dropping temps down into the 70’s for highs next weekend or us in south LA. That looks more interesting than the tropics for the next week or two.

[cycloneye]

The models move it north from now but is still moving west.

[Blown Away]

Models backing off on early development so doesn’t surprise me a weaker system goes more west moved by the trades...

[cycloneye]

NOAA plane is in Barbados (abajan) waiting for the moment they get the order to fly to 97L when it gets closer to the islands.

[cycloneye]

It may be a fish but may get a lot of ACE units to help the North Atlantic keep in the above average status and the ACE is more important than the number of named storms. (Quality vs Quantity)

[Buck]

Definitely looks like a decently strong mid level circulation already.

[cycloneye]

A small low pressure system is producing an area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms over the east-central tropical
Atlantic. Slow development is possible during the next day or
two, but environmental conditions are forecast to become more
conducive for development by the middle of the week, and a tropical
depression is likely to form by the end of the week while the system
moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

AL, 97, 2019091600, , BEST, 0, 92N, 409W, 25, 1009, L

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1173401231928283139

[StruThiO]

Showers and thunderstorms have increased overnight in association
with an area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within
the next two to three days while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward to northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms have increased this morning in association
with a small low pressure system located over the central tropical
Atlantic. Satellite data also indicate that the low has become
better defined, and environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for the formation of a tropical depression during the next
couple of days while the system moves slowly northwestward to
west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

Location: 11.3°N 40.4°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 40 NM

[msbee]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1173401231928283139

watching, just in case

[abajan]

It's really starting to fire convection this morning, but its low-level circulation seems to be heading north.

[wxman57]

Looks pathetic in both satellite imagery & TPW loop. Development chances appear to be based on model predictions. System in Gulf may have a better shot at development than 97L.

[AnnularCane]

Looks pathetic in both satellite imagery & TPW loop. Development chances appear to be based on model predictions. System in Gulf may have a better shot at development than 97L.

Are you going to take that, 97L?

[AtlanticWind]

Looks pathetic in both satellite imagery & TPW loop. Development chances appear to be based on model predictions. System in Gulf may have a better shot at development than 97L.

Looks to me like a pretty robust circulation .
Think this will likely be at least a minimal T.S.