Texas Fall 2019

[Haris]

0z solution euro is stupid.

21” in sETX and then nothing much anywhere else other than E TX. I’m sure Houston with all it’s irban flooding issues does NOT want 21” and the rest of us in severe ro extreme drought would want at least some rain.

[CaptinCrunch]

I'm sure this cold will verify DFW hits 90 everyday on the 0z GFS til this which gets us almost into October(when the sunset is over 90 minutes earlier than it was in early July ) definitely would be a record September and not the good kind

https://i.ibb.co/jWmRLHp/gfs-T2ma-scus-60.png

right, through the next 7-10 days the lowest high I saw was 90. Currently September is on pace to be the hottest on record, and I'm sure it will lockup a top 3 if for some reason it doesn't make #1

The avg high for mid September is 89, we are averaging 96.9

[dhweather]

right, through the next 7-10 days the lowest high I saw was 90. Currently September is on pace to be the hottest on record, and I'm sure it will lockup a top 3 if for some reason it doesn't make #1

The avg high for mid September is 89, we are averaging 96.9

The RIDGE OF DEATH remains undefeated. I think this years ROD is second only to the beast of 2011.

[dhweather]

I'm sure this cold will verify DFW hits 90 everyday on the 0z GFS til this which gets us almost into October(when the sunset is over 90 minutes earlier than it was in early July ) definitely would be a record September and not the good kind

https://i.ibb.co/jWmRLHp/gfs-T2ma-scus-60.png

Don't bet your soul on it - just saying.

[Cpv17]

0z solution euro is stupid.

21” in sETX and then nothing much anywhere else other than E TX. I’m sure Houston with all it’s irban flooding issues does NOT want 21” and the rest of us in severe ro extreme drought would want at least some rain.

How do you think I feel lol the past couple days the heaviest rains were aimed right at me and now they’ve shifted to my east towards Houston and now I may not get anything.

[weatherdude1108]

Not bad for the Austin metro, at this time/run.

[Yukon Cornelius]

95 at my house, feel like 100.7. This has become just a cruel joke at this point.

[EnnisTx]

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/grap ... a413cfa1af

[Portastorm]

weatherdude, our NWS office is going with the prevailing model consensus from the Euro/UKMet/CMC/ICON which takes the upper low up into east Texas. The GFS is the outlier on this one. It doesn't look promising for us. Maybe if we're lucky we'll get 1/2" of rain out of it. Years ago the models would promise snow and ice ... only to pull a Lucy and snatch those hopes and dreams away from us. Now things are so bad they do it with rainfall.

[Brent]

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/graphicast/image4.jpg?431d28a2f74a3b25bb6124a413cfa1af

I hope they are right but I'm not getting my hopes up

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I the ULL can meander into C Tx and lower the heights a bit, im willing to bet you can get some great rain makers with the heating of the day.

[Cpv17]

I the ULL can meander into C Tx and lower the heights a bit, im willing to bet you can get some great rain makers with the heating of the day.

Sugar Land is basically dead center in the bullseye. You guys could really get hammered there. At minimum I bet 10”.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I the ULL can meander into C Tx and lower the heights a bit, im willing to bet you can get some great rain makers with the heating of the day.

Sugar Land is basically dead center in the bullseye. You guys could really get hammered there. At minimum I bet 10”.

I've been watching the NAM 3K, its starting to be consistent, if that pans out, ill get more than that. It thinks it becomes a TS before landfall

[Cpv17]

I the ULL can meander into C Tx and lower the heights a bit, im willing to bet you can get some great rain makers with the heating of the day.

Sugar Land is basically dead center in the bullseye. You guys could really get hammered there. At minimum I bet 10”.

I've been watching the NAM 3K, its starting to be consistent, if that pans out, ill get more than that. It thinks it becomes a TS before landfall

I’m not a fan of that model at the moment lol I’ll take the Euro though and the WPC qpf forecast looks good to me.

[EnnisTx]

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/graphicast/image4.jpg?431d28a2f74a3b25bb6124a413cfa1af

I hope they are right but I'm not getting my hopes up

Me too. Every drop counts..

https://www.weather.gov/images/fwd/grap ... a90f2bb1b5

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow:

weatherdude, our NWS office is going with the prevailing model consensus from the Euro/UKMet/CMC/ICON which takes the upper low up into east Texas. The GFS is the outlier on this one. It doesn't look promising for us. Maybe if we're lucky we'll get 1/2" of rain out of it. Years ago the models would promise snow and ice ... only to pull a Lucy and snatch those hopes and dreams away from us. Now things are so bad they do it with rainfall.

I feel your pain Porta...I was really thinking yall would get some much needed drought relief from this system but now I don't know. The trends aren't good unfortunately...I'm trying my hardest to push some rain over to south central TX!

[Cpv17]

:uarrow:

weatherdude, our NWS office is going with the prevailing model consensus from the Euro/UKMet/CMC/ICON which takes the upper low up into east Texas. The GFS is the outlier on this one. It doesn't look promising for us. Maybe if we're lucky we'll get 1/2" of rain out of it. Years ago the models would promise snow and ice ... only to pull a Lucy and snatch those hopes and dreams away from us. Now things are so bad they do it with rainfall.

I feel your pain Porta...I was really thinking yall would get some much needed drought relief from this system but now I don't know. The trends aren't good unfortunately...I'm trying my hardest to push some rain over to south central TX!

Do you think the Wharton/El Campo area will get anything? The trends have been horrible for me today.

[Haris]

:uarrow:

weatherdude, our NWS office is going with the prevailing model consensus from the Euro/UKMet/CMC/ICON which takes the upper low up into east Texas. The GFS is the outlier on this one. It doesn't look promising for us. Maybe if we're lucky we'll get 1/2" of rain out of it. Years ago the models would promise snow and ice ... only to pull a Lucy and snatch those hopes and dreams away from us. Now things are so bad they do it with rainfall.

I feel your pain Porta...I was really thinking yall would get some much needed drought relief from this system but now I don't know. The trends aren't good unfortunately...I'm trying my hardest to push some rain over to south central TX!

Do you think the Wharton/El Campo area will get anything? The trends have been horrible for me today.

You got 4.6” last week, chill out my friend.

[Cpv17]

I feel your pain Porta...I was really thinking yall would get some much needed drought relief from this system but now I don't know. The trends aren't good unfortunately...I'm trying my hardest to push some rain over to south central TX!

Do you think the Wharton/El Campo area will get anything? The trends have been horrible for me today.

You got 4.6” last week, chill out my friend.

Yeah, but it was so dry here it doesn’t even look like it rained and we’re still in the second shade of drought on the drought monitor map so we could definitely use some more. Plus when you go from basically being in the bullseye for 5+” and trend down to 1-2” it’s very depressing. I think your area will have to get help from the Pacific unfortunately

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow:

weatherdude, our NWS office is going with the prevailing model consensus from the Euro/UKMet/CMC/ICON which takes the upper low up into east Texas. The GFS is the outlier on this one. It doesn't look promising for us. Maybe if we're lucky we'll get 1/2" of rain out of it. Years ago the models would promise snow and ice ... only to pull a Lucy and snatch those hopes and dreams away from us. Now things are so bad they do it with rainfall.

I feel your pain Porta...I was really thinking yall would get some much needed drought relief from this system but now I don't know. The trends aren't good unfortunately...I'm trying my hardest to push some rain over to south central TX!

Do you think the Wharton/El Campo area will get anything? The trends have been horrible for me today.

I think so but there might be a sharp cutoff to your west. Still too early to say how much.