ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
The trend is slightly concerning for Atlantic Canada as it seems to be getting closer run by run so they and maybe even eastern New England may have to watch this still and wouldn’t be surprised if some ensembles show that
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- TheDreamTraveler
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
aperson wrote:gfs t=120 trend:
https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/621811526596034590/623006534678609939/gfs_z500aNorm_atl_fh120_trend.gif
That's a decent west shift in the past 24 hours. Each run it comes closer to the coast.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
Like the 18Z Euro, the 0Z rum is well E of the 12Z. Let’s see if this correlates to fewer 0Z EPS members hitting the US unlike the 18Z EPS.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
aperson wrote:00z Euro ensembles
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/621811526596034590/623061613154664448/AL09_2019091600_ECENS_large.png
Good news for the US, the 0Z Euro ensemble has far fewer hits (3) vs the prior two runs’ 13.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
yeah good news on the 00z.at least for now.. its still teetering. not till this is past bermuda
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
LarryWx wrote:aperson wrote:00z Euro ensembles
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/621811526596034590/623061613154664448/AL09_2019091600_ECENS_large.png
Good news for the US, the 0Z Euro ensemble has far fewer hits (3) vs the prior two runs’ 13.
The 6Z Euro suite is consistent with the idea of the US being safe. The 6Z EPS, like the 0Z, has only a measly 3 of 51 members (6%) with a US hit (2 in SE and 1 in NE).
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- Kazmit
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
12z Euro is much faster, and as a result, has a much later turn to the NW. Which means it pretty much goes right over Bermuda.
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
A very exciting 12z GFS run: after meandering around the North Atlantic as a weakening post-tropical cyclone, Humberto’s low level energy gets shoved southward past the Azores on the eastern periphery of the Azores high by day 16 and is on a trajectory to almost enter the MDR NW of Cabo Verde.
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
Siker wrote:A very exciting 12z GFS run: after meandering around the North Atlantic as a weakening post-tropical cyclone, Humberto’s low level energy gets shoved southward past the Azores on the eastern periphery of the Azores high by day 16 and is on a trajectory to almost enter the MDR NW of Cabo Verde.
How is that even possible lol
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blonde stacey (xe/xem/xir)
- Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
DioBrando wrote:Siker wrote:A very exciting 12z GFS run: after meandering around the North Atlantic as a weakening post-tropical cyclone, Humberto’s low level energy gets shoved southward past the Azores on the eastern periphery of the Azores high by day 16 and is on a trajectory to almost enter the MDR NW of Cabo Verde.
How is that even possible lol
The subtropical ridge takes it around, a very uncommon thing
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- Kazmit
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Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
18z GFS further right; puts Bermuda in the hurricane-force wind-field.
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Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
00z CMC shows BDA landfall
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Eyes: Emily '86, Dean '89, Felix '95, Gert '99, Fabian '03, Humberto '19, Paulette '20
Re: ATL: HUMBERTO - Models
06z GFS keeps him to the north. Looks like there is more agreement on this solution now:
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Eyes: Emily '86, Dean '89, Felix '95, Gert '99, Fabian '03, Humberto '19, Paulette '20
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