ATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[stormlover2013]

This is a depression don't understand why NHC won't pull the trigger!!!! Bastardi is going off right now on twitter about it.

[Jr0d]

This is a depression don't understand why NHC won't pull the trigger!!!! Bastardi is going off right now on twitter about it.

Joe always likes to one up the NHC on at least one storm a year.

There is some spin on radar...not sure if it has a closed circulation.

[wxman57]

There's a weak low on the Texas coast, and it could be called a depression, given what the NHC has classified as depressions in the recent past. However, doing so as it is moving ashore would only cause confusion. The local NWS offices are handling the rainfall threat just fine without having to explain that this "depression" is not going to blow your house away with hurricane-force winds. If the same system was a day or two from shore, then, yeah, upgrade it because it may have the potential to become a strong TS or hurricane. Saying that a tropical depression is moving inland today won't help coastal residents.

Oh, and rain from this system at my home in SW Houston is now up to 0.12"! Heaviest rain in over a month! I think it would take 5-10 inches of rain to water my lawn at this point.

[HouTXmetro]

Could the center relocate south under the heavier convection?

[GCANE]

Sea Breeze at KBQX dropping off.
Expect to see the CoC to consolidate in the convection at about 27.8N 95.8W

[GCANE]

Current Radar CoC

[1900hurricane]

There's a weak low on the Texas coast, and it could be called a depression, given what the NHC has classified as depressions in the recent past. However, doing so as it is moving ashore would only cause confusion. The local NWS offices are handling the rainfall threat just fine without having to explain that this "depression" is not going to blow your house away with hurricane-force winds. If the same system was a day or two from shore, then, yeah, upgrade it because it may have the potential to become a strong TS or hurricane. Saying that a tropical depression is moving inland today won't help coastal residents.

Oh, and rain from this system at my home in SW Houston is now up to 0.12"! Heaviest rain in over a month! I think it would take 5-10 inches of rain to water my lawn at this point.

http://wxman57.com/images/98L.JPG

That's actually rather close to the center of vorticity seen on radar, although that one appears to be just a hair to the east to me. As far as actual organization, I'd say it has modestly overperformed, although as you mentioned, that means very little in terms of sensible impacts with this one.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1173964829998112768

[StormLogic]

I had a bad feeling the rain would be east of Houston...

[SoupBone]

Matt Lanza tweet, for perspective.

 https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1173958852607393795




 https://twitter.com/mattlanza/status/1173961422902104065

[tolakram]

Here's the estimated rainfall (5 days out) from the GFS. Just two models here, not a forecast.

GFS


Here's the same thing from the overnight Euro run.

[captainbarbossa19]

If anyone would like to view rainfall data in the Southeast Texas region, I have attached a link to KFDM's WeatherNET. KFDM is a TV station located in Beaumont and they have a lot of local rainfall data as well as other weather data in that area. Some areas around Port Arthur have already had almost 3 inches of rain since midnight.

https://kfdm.com/weather/weathernet

[StormLogic]

If anyone would like to view rainfall data in the Southeast Texas region, I have attached a link to KFDM's WeatherNET. KFDM is a TV station located in Beaumont and they have a lot of local rainfall data as well as other weather data in that area. Some areas around Port Arthur have already had almost 3 inches of rain since midnight.

https://kfdm.com/weather/weathernet

If you want to get fancier, look at the Rainfall Maps from your Drainage District. Here's the one for Jefferson County http://www.dd6.org/rainfall-elevations/ ... l-data-map

you can even get down to 15 min intervals of rainfall to accurately see how much its raining in a given time period

[RBDnhm]

Various models move this thing north to about Dallas in 72 hours; if so that will be wonderful. Two to three days of hard rain Southeast Texas can handle for the most part. Five to seven days with stalled feeder bands for two, aka Harvey, not so much.

[stormlover2013]

this would be bad for beaumont and houston

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1712&fh=13

[GCANE]

Surface vort in blue
Surface to 3km MLCAPE in red

[tolakram]

COD visible. SLIDER not loading for me at the moment.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Big_Bend-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Closer view

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Houston-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[SoupBone]

The GFS wants to send most of the rain east of Houston toward Beaumont.

[StormLogic]

The GFS wants to send most of the rain east of Houston toward Beaumont.

Some other models started showing this early yesterday. Gfs is finally catching on I suppose. Now I want to see what the EURO is going to do after It's shift a little more east last night as well.

[1900hurricane]

COD visible. SLIDER not loading for me at the moment.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Big_Bend-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Closer view

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=local-Houston-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

RAMMB has a scheduled outage today, so I imagine most of their stuff, including SLIDER will be down most of the day.

[Jr0d]

If the 'no name' storm that hit CFL in 2011 didn't get classified, neither should this one.