Tropical Wave emerging from West Africa (Is INVEST 90L)

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off of the west coast of Africa
on Thursday. Some gradual development will be possible over the
weekend while the system moves generally westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[StruThiO]

[Hypercane_Kyle]

ECMWF is being exceptionally consistent with this one developing into a powerful hurricane quickly.

[SFLcane]

ECMWF is being exceptionally consistent with this one developing into a powerful hurricane quickly.

Which will make a recurve extremely likely.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS has been showing both scenarios one where it develops and heads north like the Euro in the 6 and 18 z runs and if it doesn’t develop a western Caribbean developer like the 12z and 0z. We’ll know by next week which is right

[CyclonicFury]

I'm still somewhat skeptical on development after what happened to 94L and 96L with the models dropping them after splashdown, but the thermodynamic environment over the MDR has significantly improved. I'm not going to pay too much attention to the models until the wave emerges into the Atlantic.

[AnnularCane]

I'm still somewhat skeptical on development after what happened to 94L and 96L with the models dropping them after splashdown, but the thermodynamic environment over the MDR has significantly improved. I'm not going to pay too much attention to the models until the wave emerges into the Atlantic.

Sort of OT, I guess...but I always get a kick out of the term "splashdown." It makes me think of the waves cannonballing into the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

Both Euro and GFS develop this wave so I expect a mention on TWO after being taken down.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1174451207101976577

[cycloneye]

Both Euro and GFS develop this wave so I expect a mention on TWO after being taken down.

No mention on the 8 PM one

[AnnularCane]

I wonder why they took it down if models still develop it.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Both the GFS and ECMWF have development by D5.

I am baffled as to why the NHC removed the system from the TWO.

[CyclonicFury]

Both the GFS and ECMWF have development by D5.

I am baffled as to why the NHC removed the system from the TWO.

I think the system previously on the TWO was actually a different wave, one that never had much model support.

[cycloneye]

Both the GFS and ECMWF have development by D5.

I am baffled as to why the NHC removed the system from the TWO.

I think the system previously on the TWO was actually a different wave, one that never had much model support.

The wave that is over Nigeria emerges Africa on Saturday and that may be why they took it down.

[cycloneye]

Is again on TWO.

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in
a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for at least gradual development thereafter while the system moves
westward over the far eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[cycloneye]

I think we can say with certainty that the CONUS will not be threatened by whatever this may turn into. if it does as the models are showing,it will ramp up ACE to help the North Atlantic reach +100 units.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in
a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development thereafter and a tropical depression could form
early next week while the system moves westward over the far eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[Monsoonjr99]

I'm still somewhat skeptical on development after what happened to 94L and 96L with the models dropping them after splashdown, but the thermodynamic environment over the MDR has significantly improved. I'm not going to pay too much attention to the models until the wave emerges into the Atlantic.

It seems strange that the models are so bullish on this right after a big burp of SAL just entered the MDR. This disturbance could easily follow the fate of 94L and 96L despite the CCKW/MJO. Before Dorian, the SAL had the MDR shut down for most of August.

Given October will be arriving soon with the climatological end of Cabo Verde season, perhaps Jerry was the last hurrah for the MDR this year. Given the model signal and NHC chance atm, I won't write this disturbance off yet, and that other wave models develop near Trinidad also should be watched.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form
early next week while the wave moves westward over the eastern
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[cycloneye]

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form early next week while the wave moves westward across
the eastern tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.