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intraseasonal forcing about as favorable as it possibly gets
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NDG wrote:Chances of an above average Atlantic Hurricane season is growing by the minute before all is set and done with a busy 3-4 weeks ahead coming up, IMO.
WeatherEmperor wrote:So here is something that may or may not throw a monkey wrench into the favorable conditions in the Caribbean for October. Despite Nino 3.4 currently sitting at -0.3C the CFS and Euro show the region rapidly warming to near +0.5C during the month of October. While this appears unlikely it could happen because the SOI is still el nino’ish negative. Does anybody have any maps to see if WWB’s are on the horizon to support Nino 3.4 warming like this?
What do you guys think? No big deal or something to watch as it could make October conditions in the Caribbean less favorable than we think? Maybe the CFS and Euro are messed up and just dead wrong??
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Kingarabian wrote:NDG wrote:Kingarabian wrote:No El Nino or El Nino, 2004 and 2005 were the last years I remember where both basins had activity at the same time. And I'm not simply implying season totals. I mean directly, where if the EPAC has present TCs, the Atlantic is usually quiet and vice versa.
In that case we don't have to go that far, 2017 during the middle of September had 2-3 systems over in the far east EPAC while the Atlantic also had 2-3 systems at the same time.
It' still seems like a small sample size to me. Reason is, when theres activity in one of these basins, one has more rising air while the other has residual sinking air. 2017 September featured 4 majors while the September EPAC systems were mostly Cat.1 or below.
NDG wrote:Kingarabian wrote:NDG wrote:
In that case we don't have to go that far, 2017 during the middle of September had 2-3 systems over in the far east EPAC while the Atlantic also had 2-3 systems at the same time.
It' still seems like a small sample size to me. Reason is, when theres activity in one of these basins, one has more rising air while the other has residual sinking air. 2017 September featured 4 majors while the September EPAC systems were mostly Cat.1 or below.
I rest my case, in that during the peak of the hurricane season during non El Nino years and warm PDOs, etc, etc, we can see both basins busy at the same time.
This is a lot more common that most people think.
https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1174041246958006272
zhukm29 wrote:Welcome to September!![]()
https://i.ibb.co/rdDdjbT/plotsystemforecast-nt-pz-pa-2019-active-invests-fulltropics-merc-640x280-640-480.jpg
GCANE wrote:Looks like the Bermuda High will anchor in around end of the month.
This and the favorable CCKW conditions and we could see a significant Carib Runner or two then.
The one coming off Africa on Sunday could be the first one to watch.
Steve wrote:70.7 ACE per CSU and 10 named storms. Jerry probably gets us to 80+/- with it now scheduled to be a hurricane at least from tomorrow morning through Monday night. It’s not quite to 30N at that point so you have to figure it should be a hurricane for the better part of a week
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents
We are at 10 named storms which is a hair below average but a couple named storms ahead of normal for this date. Looks like we are heading into an average season at a minimum and possibly to the higher end of average range in most categories. For the perennial downcasters and cult of 2013, I’d suggest you all develop more patience in July and the first 3 weeks of August and wait to see what happens.
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