ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

Wow, so this will possibly become Jerry now!
Looks like this will be the most interesting Jerry to watch, unlike its past short-lived versions.

Not allowed. I predicted the "I" storm would be it this season during the annual contest. I will not permit another named storm.

[Abdullah]

Wow, so this will possibly become Jerry now!
Looks like this will be the most interesting Jerry to watch, unlike its past short-lived versions.

Not allowed. I predicted the "I" storm would be it this season during the annual contest. I will not permit another named storm.

Why do you all like the "I" storms so much! "H" and "J" are just as bad!

[Aric Dunn]

as others have alluded too. the makings of RI are afoot.

[Abdullah]

Since everyone here seems to be talking about RI, here is the link to CIMSS' Rapid Intensification Index: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mw-ri-prob/

By the way, why hasn't a best track been released yet?

https://nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc19/ATL/ ... ckfile.txt

[storm4u]

Hmmmmmm 35kts. Tropical storm now?


Tropical Storm TEN
As of 00:00 UTC Sep 18, 2019:

Location: 13.5°N 46.2°W
Maximum Winds: 35 kt  Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1006 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 150 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 30 NM

[StAuggy]

This was from Levi’s blog update this evening. Stronger doesn’t always equal poleward apparently.


“However, if the storm gets strong and fights off the dry air and shear it will be interacting with at the time, steering currents may take it farther south, closer to the islands, so keep an eye on the forecast.”

[johngaltfla]

as others have alluded too. the makings of RI are afoot.

I'm afraid you're correct. Hopefully it starts gaining latitude in a NW to NNW move or we're all looking at a late September nightmare.

[sma10]

as others have alluded too. the makings of RI are afoot.

Aric, you and Levi have both alluded to the fact that a stronger system means less poleward in this particular instance.

Why is that?

[Highteeld]

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 3.1 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)

[Aric Dunn]

as others have alluded too. the makings of RI are afoot.

Aric, you and Levi have both alluded to the fact that a stronger system means less poleward in this particular instance.

Why is that?

check in the model thread second to last page I think. Also has to do with the 300 to 200 mb high that should be positioned north of PR as Humberto pulls out.

[CrazyC83]

This was from Levi’s blog update this evening. Stronger doesn’t always equal poleward apparently.


“However, if the storm gets strong and fights off the dry air and shear it will be interacting with at the time, steering currents may take it farther south, closer to the islands, so keep an eye on the forecast.”

We saw that with another J storm in 2015, where its strength dug it south, but that was a completely different setup...

[GeneratorPower]

as others have alluded too. the makings of RI are afoot.

Aric, you and Levi have both alluded to the fact that a stronger system means less poleward in this particular instance.

Why is that?

A stronger system is deeper. It has more thickness from sea level to the top of its clouds. Therefore it is steered differently because winds at different levels are going in different directions. If it gets a little taller it will be pushed on by stronger upper level winds blowing from the NE to the SW. That pushes it left of its predicted track. But different wind directions at different levels is also what causes shear. Shear is bad for developing storms and not good for any storm. But a strong storm is more able to resist effects of shear and simply be pushed in a different direction.

[northjaxpro]

This cyclone is looking real good tonight. Convection consolidating nicely in the center. Deep convective tops in the CoC. Jerry will be with us very shortly.

We are potentially looking at another big threat to The Bahamas in the next week with this cyclone. It is going to be close next week. .

[msbee]

This cyclone is looking real good tonight. Convection consolidating nicely in the center. Deep convective tops in the CoC. Jerry will be with us very shortly.

We are potentially looking at another big threat to The Bahamas in the next week with this cyclone. It is going to be close next week. .

I sure hope Bahamas is not affected by this storm, but right now I hope we on St Maarten are not affected. We all have post Irma jitters here.

[Stormi]

This cyclone is looking real good tonight. Convection consolidating nicely in the center. Deep convective tops in the CoC. Jerry will be with us very shortly.

We are potentially looking at another big threat to The Bahamas in the next week with this cyclone. It is going to be close next week. .

Observing it tonight - it's looking much better organized, plentiful convection too. This one's really getting it's act together.

[Stormi]

My heart goes out to anyone & everyone in the Bahamas ...they don't need any more

[Highteeld]

[Kazmit]

The least threatening name of the season- hopefully it fulfils this.

[AnnularCane]

ASCAT ruined everything. Oh well, maybe next advisory.

[1900hurricane]

Here's that ASCAT pass. Probably a good no upgrade based on it with only 25 kt wind vectors. Even accounting for ASCAT low bias in tropical systems (which isn't particularly pronounced at this intensity anyway), the most you can argue for with this pass is 30 kt.