Tropical wave in the Central Atlantic (Is INVEST 99L)

[SFLcane]

Tropical wave not yet mentioned by the NHC should be monitored as convection has been rather persistent and quite a few ECMWF ensembles develop a low-rider heading for the Caribbean.

[StormLogic]

no bueno for GOM

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
630 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

<snip>

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 32W S of 18N, moving
W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted from 13N- 16N between 30W-34W. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are also seen near the wave from 04N- 06N between
28W- 35W.

If you want to see something really cool, check out visible full disk imagery of this wave this morning. You can see the SAL plume immediately behind this wave overtaking it as it casts a large area of dusty, mostly cloud-free sun glint. You can also see some gravity waves on the NW flank of its leading edge. Pretty cool stuff...

[AJC3]

The gravity waves have an even more impressive visible presentation now...

[Astromanía]

no bueno for GOM

Spanish is my first languaje so when I saw words in spanish at this forum really makes me laugh

[Siker]

12z ECMWF has this as a weak TC in the southeastern Caribbean in 6 days (as does the UKMET) that moves NW and strengthens north of the Mona Passage.

[LarryWx]

Yep, at this early juncture it would appear that this may be setting up to be much more dangerous for the western basin than TD #10 as I still don't see TD #10 as a threat right now but I do not feel safe about this one. The 12Z CMC also has this.

[AJC3]

Yep, at this early juncture it would appear that this may be setting up to be much more dangerous for the western basin than TD #10 as I still don't see TD #10 as a threat right now but I do not feel safe about this one. The 12Z CMC also has this.

From a diagnostic vs prognostic standpoint, I have to wonder how well the global model guidance has initialized what appears to be a very strong EATLC SAL outbreak that is overtaking this wave. At first glance, the H70-H40 MRH forecast fields seem a little bit too moist to me (I wish I was at work so I could look at H85-H50 layer, like I normally do - will do that tomorrow). Unless this stays right on the western or southern periphery of that air mass, I'm thinking this wave may struggle to maintain convection. It'll be interesting to see...

[TheStormExpert]

I'm not feeling all too concerned with this one either. The same trough that sucks up TD #10 on the 18z GFS sucks this right up too without development. Also the NAO has gone negative and in 10 days the GFS has a cold front reaching the Gulf Coast and FL Panhandle.

Quite the contrast when compared to last September when the eastern third of the U.S. was experiencing record heat just prior to Hurricane Michael.

[gatorcane]

If this one manages to reach the Western or NW Caribbean, could become a threat for the CONUS.

[psyclone]

I'm not feeling all too concerned with this one either. The same trough that sucks up TD #10 on the 18z GFS sucks this right up too without development. Also the NAO has gone negative and in 10 days the GFS has a cold front reaching the Gulf Coast and FL Panhandle.

Quite the contrast when compared to last September when the eastern third of the U.S. was experiencing record heat just prior to Hurricane Michael.

I'd be leery of the GFS cold front depiction...the WPC continues to indicate above normal temps in the eastern US in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook. That, along with a bet on persistence seems more likely. Nevertheless it is getting late to be looking east...at least this far east. And as has been mentioned above...The SAL may very well devour this one.

[LarryWx]

From NHC:
"An area of low pressure is expected to develop this weekend to the
east of the Windward Islands. Some gradual development of this
system is possible as it moves west to west-northwestward over the
islands and across the eastern Caribbean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent"

This appears to originate from the wave following TD 10 and is the same one that leads to TC genesis by the 12z Euro/CMC north of the Mona Passage near the end of the run. This may end up being one to watch closely in the E Caribbean this weekend/early next week and further west in the basin late next week and beyond.

[northjaxpro]

This is the system we will REALLY, REALLY have to monitor very closely as it will traverse through the Caribbean Sea and conditions look rather decent down in the region with relation to shear the next few days for potential development.

This could loom as a potential HUGE threat to the NW Caribbean area and to interests in the CONUS as we get into next week. It is that time of year now in which cold fronts and or the mid latitude westerlies can pick up these systems out of the Caribbean and create serious problems.

[hurricanes1234]

We in the eastern Caribbean (especially the southeastern Caribbean) will have to monitor this one closely as well because based on the yellow circle, the area of low pressure looks like it'll form or pass directly over us, which could potentially cause a good bit of rain.

[GCANE]

Starting a period of very favorable CCKW conditions for TC genesis which will last thru end of October in the MDR.
Just about anything can popup with little warning.

[GCANE]

06Z GFS genesis 7.5N 52.0W 72 hrs out. Heads to PR.

[GCANE]

Euro passes the islands, 120 hrs out.

[abajan]

A tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo
Verde Islands is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers.
Some development of this system is possible over the weekend while
the system approaches the Windward Islands or across the
southeastern Caribbean Sea early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[abajan]

Hopefully, this doesn't pull an Imelda in terms of how quickly it develops.

[GCANE]