ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Yea, Jerry has not gained hardly any latitude overnight. Not a good sign for the Lesser Antilles if this continues today.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1174288984991772672

[chris_fit]

Hopefully what Levi says is true, and this thing is not stacked, beause it looks beautiful for a tropical storm... But sometimes looks can be VERY deceiving, won't know till recon gets in there.

[Kazmit]

Yea, Jerry has not gained hardly any latitude overnight. Not a good sign for the Lesser Antilles if this continues today.

Looks on track to me, just 5 miles south of where the 11pm forecast said it would be (blue line).

[Visioen]

Nice band forming.

[cycloneye]

B. 18/1150Z

C. 14.2N

D. 48.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION WRAPS 0.7 ON LOG10 SPIRAL FOR A DT OF 3.0. MET
AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

[SouthDadeFish]

The low-level cloud field on the eastern side of the vortex is interesting... I see low-level clouds moving off to the NE.... This suggests to me that the low-level vortex is still broad and poorly organized. At the very least, it is elongated.

[chris_fit]

The low-level cloud field on the eastern side of the vortex is interesting... I see low-level clouds moving off to the NE.... This suggests to me that the low-level vortex is still broad and poorly organized. At the very least, it is elongated.

https://i.imgur.com/LMZ0xOg.gif

That's a great observation!

[northjaxpro]

The low-level cloud field on the eastern side of the vortex is interesting... I see low-level clouds moving off to the NE.... This suggests to me that the low-level vortex is still broad and poorly organized. At the very least, it is elongated.

https://i.imgur.com/LMZ0xOg.gif

That's a great observation!

We will see if you are on to something. Recon certainly will tell it all when they get in there later.

[SouthDadeFish]

The low-level cloud field on the eastern side of the vortex is interesting... I see low-level clouds moving off to the NE.... This suggests to me that the low-level vortex is still broad and poorly organized. At the very least, it is elongated.

https://i.imgur.com/LMZ0xOg.gif

That's a great observation!

We will see if you are on to something. Recon certainly will tell it all when they get in there later.

Just so you know, the recon flight today is the G-IV. They are sampling Jerry's environment instead of the inner vortex structure.

[Fego]

That's a great observation!

We will see if you are on to something. Recon certainly will tell it all when they get in there later.

Just so you know, the recon flight today is the G-IV. They are sampling Jerry's environment instead of the inner vortex structure.

Hi all.
What kind of information the G-IV can collect, for example?

[SouthDadeFish]

We will see if you are on to something. Recon certainly will tell it all when they get in there later.

Just so you know, the recon flight today is the G-IV. They are sampling Jerry's environment instead of the inner vortex structure.

Hi all.
What kind of information the G-IV can collect, for example?

Right now the G-IV is primarily there to launch dropsondes that take profiles of atmospheric temperature, moisture, and winds. This information is then fed into the operational numerical models. It is also a great data source for research. The G-IV is supposed to have a Doppler radar onboard, but my understanding is that the radar is not operating properly at the moment. Otherwise, models such as the HWRF would have been able to use the radar observations to initialize the TC more accurately.

[chris_fit]

Remember when Dorian was nearing Barbados and we all thought we had a Hurricane? Turns out it was barely a TS, as WXMAN57 put it - "Winds howling at 20 kts just 15 miles from Dorian's center."

Here is a sat pic of Dorian when we thought we had a Cat1 but recon confirmed otherwise. SouthDadeFish is likely correct and we are being deceived here. What's on the outside looks nice, but under the hood, Jerry gots a ways to go.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1174309707995078656

[plasticup]

Remember when Dorian was nearing Barbados and we all thought we had a Hurricane? Turns out it was barely a TS, as WXMAN57 put it - "Winds howling at 20 kts just 15 miles from Dorian's center."

Here is a sat pic of Dorian when we thought we had a Cat1 but recon confirmed otherwise. SouthDadeFish is likely correct and we are being deceived here. What's on the outside looks nice, but under the hood, Jerry gots a ways to go.

https://i.imgur.com/vnS3YvZ.jpg

Jerry has much more pronounced banding than that picture of Dorian. I don't think they are directly comparable.

[Fego]

Remember when Dorian was nearing Barbados and we all thought we had a Hurricane? Turns out it was barely a TS, as WXMAN57 put it - "Winds howling at 20 kts just 15 miles from Dorian's center."

Here is a sat pic of Dorian when we thought we had a Cat1 but recon confirmed otherwise. SouthDadeFish is likely correct and we are being deceived here. What's on the outside looks nice, but under the hood, Jerry gots a ways to go.

https://i.imgur.com/vnS3YvZ.jpg

That's something I'm trying to be able to see... the center location for example. Sat images make one think that Jerry is moving W, but NHC says that the "surface center is still situated near the northeastern edge of the convective mass".

[LarryWx]

From best I can tell:
- He doesn’t look all that healthy right now on satellite loops. Am I off?
- He appears to be moving quite a bit south of the NHC track and the model consensus, which takes him right over 15.0N, 50.0W. Am I off?

[chris_fit]

Remember when Dorian was nearing Barbados and we all thought we had a Hurricane? Turns out it was barely a TS, as WXMAN57 put it - "Winds howling at 20 kts just 15 miles from Dorian's center."

Here is a sat pic of Dorian when we thought we had a Cat1 but recon confirmed otherwise. SouthDadeFish is likely correct and we are being deceived here. What's on the outside looks nice, but under the hood, Jerry gots a ways to go.

https://i.imgur.com/vnS3YvZ.jpg

Jerry has much more pronounced banding than that picture of Dorian. I don't think they are directly comparable.

On the contrary Dorian appeared to have a better lower level circulation

[wx98]

From best I can tell:
- He doesn’t look all that healthy right now on satellite loops. Am I off?
- He appears to be moving south of the NHC track and the model consensus, which takes him right over 15.0N, 50.0W. Am I off?

Looks like it has decent outflow. I think the better mid-level appearance is deceiving, as some have said the low level circulation may not be that well defined yet. It is like a newborn baby deer (or giraffe) trying to get its legs and find its footing. I don’t see it gaining that much latitude (if any) right now. Needs to get moving NW soon to miss the islands completely.

[Aric Dunn]

MY first look this morning. There is definitely something funky with the low level clouds on the NE side. quite possible, as mentioned some NE shear still. displacing the low and mid level centers.

this shear though may end up keeping Jerry on a more westerly track