SFLcane wrote:I'd say that's rather good agreement on this avoiding land all together.
https://i.imgur.com/RFBWIGo.png
Unless you live on that land mass at 32.29, -64.79 called Bermuda.
ATL: JERRY - Models
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models
Unless you live on that land mass at 32.29, -64.79 called Bermuda.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models
Sep 18: A supercomputer failure at NCEP means 12Z NCEP models, including the GFS, are expected to be delayed.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: ATL: JERRY - Models
SFLcane wrote:I'd say that's rather good agreement on this avoiding land all together.
https://i.imgur.com/RFBWIGo.png
Well I would like to look at the Euro ensemble to be sure, at the long end of the range there are discrepancies.
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chris_fit
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models
NCEP Operational Status Message
Wed Sep 18 15:52:21 2019 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 181552
ADMNFD
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1549Z WED SEP 18 2019
EMERGENCY WCOSS PRODUCTION SWITCH - RESTON TO ORLANDO...
At approximately 8:30am EDT, model production in Reston started
to show signs of trouble. NCO's SPA Team and IBM have linked the
problems to an issue with a GPFS filesystem on Tide. The issue on
Tide in Reston was not able to be resolved quickly, so an
emergency WCOSS production switch to Orlando has started. NCO is
working carefully to mitigate impacts, but delays in model
production are expected.
Wed Sep 18 15:52:21 2019 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 181552
ADMNFD
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1549Z WED SEP 18 2019
EMERGENCY WCOSS PRODUCTION SWITCH - RESTON TO ORLANDO...
At approximately 8:30am EDT, model production in Reston started
to show signs of trouble. NCO's SPA Team and IBM have linked the
problems to an issue with a GPFS filesystem on Tide. The issue on
Tide in Reston was not able to be resolved quickly, so an
emergency WCOSS production switch to Orlando has started. NCO is
working carefully to mitigate impacts, but delays in model
production are expected.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models
chris_fit wrote:NCEP Operational Status Message
Wed Sep 18 15:52:21 2019 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 181552
ADMNFD
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1549Z WED SEP 18 2019
EMERGENCY WCOSS PRODUCTION SWITCH - RESTON TO ORLANDO...
At approximately 8:30am EDT, model production in Reston started
to show signs of trouble. NCO's SPA Team and IBM have linked the
problems to an issue with a GPFS filesystem on Tide. The issue on
Tide in Reston was not able to be resolved quickly, so an
emergency WCOSS production switch to Orlando has started. NCO is
working carefully to mitigate impacts, but delays in model
production are expected.
Geez, must be serious if it's a filesystem corruption.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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chris_fit
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:chris_fit wrote:NCEP Operational Status Message
Wed Sep 18 15:52:21 2019 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 181552
ADMNFD
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1549Z WED SEP 18 2019
EMERGENCY WCOSS PRODUCTION SWITCH - RESTON TO ORLANDO...
At approximately 8:30am EDT, model production in Reston started
to show signs of trouble. NCO's SPA Team and IBM have linked the
problems to an issue with a GPFS filesystem on Tide. The issue on
Tide in Reston was not able to be resolved quickly, so an
emergency WCOSS production switch to Orlando has started. NCO is
working carefully to mitigate impacts, but delays in model
production are expected.
Geez, must be serious if it's a filesystem corruption.
Yup - as someone that works in IT, that does not sound like a good day.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models
AutoPenalti wrote:chris_fit wrote:NCEP Operational Status Message
Wed Sep 18 15:52:21 2019 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 181552
ADMNFD
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1549Z WED SEP 18 2019
EMERGENCY WCOSS PRODUCTION SWITCH - RESTON TO ORLANDO...
At approximately 8:30am EDT, model production in Reston started
to show signs of trouble. NCO's SPA Team and IBM have linked the
problems to an issue with a GPFS filesystem on Tide. The issue on
Tide in Reston was not able to be resolved quickly, so an
emergency WCOSS production switch to Orlando has started. NCO is
working carefully to mitigate impacts, but delays in model
production are expected.
Geez, must be serious if it's a filesystem corruption.
Yeah, but they will have a failover site, in this case it looks like Orlando
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chris_fit
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models
While we wait for more frames to come in.... here is the 24 hour trend for GFS
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AxaltaRacing24
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models
chris_fit wrote:While we wait for more frames to come in.... here is the 24 hour trend for GFS
https://i.imgur.com/sVYnzkh.gif
Clearly playing catch-up on the intensity of the storm.
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models
chris_fit wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:chris_fit wrote:NCEP Operational Status Message
Wed Sep 18 15:52:21 2019 GMT
NOUS42 KWNO 181552
ADMNFD
SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD
1549Z WED SEP 18 2019
EMERGENCY WCOSS PRODUCTION SWITCH - RESTON TO ORLANDO...
NCO is
working carefully to mitigate impacts, but delays in model
production are expected.
Geez, must be serious if it's a filesystem corruption.
Yup - as someone that works in IT, that does not sound like a good day.
That’s what server backups are for
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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chris_fit
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models
chris_fit wrote:is the 12Z UKMET out yet?
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 48.6W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2019 0 15.0N 48.6W 1008 26
0000UTC 19.09.2019 12 15.5N 51.3W 1005 30
1200UTC 19.09.2019 24 16.4N 54.2W 1003 36
0000UTC 20.09.2019 36 17.5N 57.0W 1003 39
1200UTC 20.09.2019 48 18.6N 59.8W 1004 41
0000UTC 21.09.2019 60 20.3N 62.3W 1005 41
1200UTC 21.09.2019 72 21.8N 64.7W 1005 42
0000UTC 22.09.2019 84 23.2N 66.3W 1004 39
1200UTC 22.09.2019 96 24.5N 67.2W 1000 46
0000UTC 23.09.2019 108 25.6N 67.8W 989 54
1200UTC 23.09.2019 120 26.5N 67.3W 985 53
0000UTC 24.09.2019 132 29.0N 66.5W 965 73
1200UTC 24.09.2019 144 31.6N 65.9W 964 69
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models
chris_fit wrote:chris_fit wrote:is the 12Z UKMET out yet?
TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 48.6W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019
LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 18.09.2019 0 15.0N 48.6W 1008 26
0000UTC 19.09.2019 12 15.5N 51.3W 1005 30
1200UTC 19.09.2019 24 16.4N 54.2W 1003 36
0000UTC 20.09.2019 36 17.5N 57.0W 1003 39
1200UTC 20.09.2019 48 18.6N 59.8W 1004 41
0000UTC 21.09.2019 60 20.3N 62.3W 1005 41
1200UTC 21.09.2019 72 21.8N 64.7W 1005 42
0000UTC 22.09.2019 84 23.2N 66.3W 1004 39
1200UTC 22.09.2019 96 24.5N 67.2W 1000 46
0000UTC 23.09.2019 108 25.6N 67.8W 989 54
1200UTC 23.09.2019 120 26.5N 67.3W 985 53
0000UTC 24.09.2019 132 29.0N 66.5W 965 73
1200UTC 24.09.2019 144 31.6N 65.9W 964 69
So, the 12Z UKMET is again a Bermuda threat. This is the 3rd run in a row that is far to the north of those two earlier runs that were near PR.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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SouthDadeFish
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models
It does not appear the models are handling the short-term intensity forecast of the storm well at all. Jerry looks very impressive on satellite imagery right now. I would lean toward the models that show more development. But that's just my opinion.
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Aric Dunn
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Models
SouthDadeFish wrote:It does not appear the models are handling the short-term intensity forecast of the storm well at all. Jerry looks very impressive on satellite imagery right now. I would lean toward the models that show more development. But that's just my opinion.
Agreed...
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