Texas Fall 2019

[DFW Stormwatcher]

It seems to be moving more northeast. I don't think DFW will get a single drop. Maybe Dallas county will get 1/4 inch.

Yep, the system is headed right up 59 toward Texarkana and Shreveport. So much for that.

[starsfan65]

It seems to be moving more northeast. I don't think DFW will get a single drop. Maybe Dallas county will get 1/4 inch.

Yep, the system is headed right up 59 toward Texarkana and Shreveport. So much for that.

What that suppose to mean?

[Cpv17]

It seems to be moving more northeast. I don't think DFW will get a single drop. Maybe Dallas county will get 1/4 inch.

Yep, the system is headed right up 59 toward Texarkana and Shreveport. So much for that.

What that suppose to mean?

It means DFW will be dry slotted.

[Ntxw]

There is no frontal boundary to amplify/spread the moisture around like re-curving EPAC storms.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Plus, that huge line of storms south of the CoC is cutting off the inflow of moisture. That line dissapates, and more storms around the CoC may pop up

[weatherdude1108]

There is no frontal boundary to amplify/spread the moisture around like re-curving EPAC storms.

System done and gone.

[SoupBone]

We only got around 2" in NW Houston out of this. We could have used a few more. I guess we'll take what we can get.

[Brent]

well if its not gonna rain might as well break the heat/dry September records

[weatherdude1108]

I feel like I'm in a bad dream, and can't wake up.

[weatherdude1108]

I think I would also agree with EWX and side with the ECMWF, given the multiple sub-par forecasting teasers of the GFS and our recent string of luck with the stubborn Ridge O' Misery.

But they're also being semi-hopeful, I guess.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 182020
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
320 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Afternoon surface observations show weak surface convergence across
portions of the western Hill Country with northerly winds in place
from Fredericksburg to Austin, with weak southeasterly winds across
the Rio Grande plains. This along with daytime heating should help to
generate some additional convection through this afternoon across the
western Hill Country. Elsewhere, the water vapor satellite shows a
fair amount of subsidence over the region. Despite the subsidence,
we still have plenty of moisture intact and will continue to mention
a low chance (20-30%) farther east across the I-35 corridor into the
coastal plains. Most of the convection should decrease with the loss
of daytime heating, but we will leave a low chance in the forecast
for the Highway 77 corridor and coastal plains overnight.

On Thursday, the remnants of `Imelda` will continue to weaken and
expand across southeast Texas. The cyclonic circulation around the
remnant surface low will bring northerly winds to areas generally
along and north of a Fredericksburg to La Grange line tomorrow.
Elsewhere, southerly winds in the low-levels are expected to
strengthen slightly. This will lead to a zone of surface convergence
across portions of south central Texas tomorrow. The hi-res models do
show a good chance for convection developing along this convergent
axis, but do differ somewhat in the location. For now, we will go
with a good chance of rain from portions of the Hill Country eastward
across the I-35 corridor into the coastal plains. Later shifts may
need to adjust the zone of higher rain chances pending later model
data. Expected slow movement of convection may lead to a localized
flood threat, especially where multiple cells move over the same
region.

Rain chances Thursday night will likely depend on what takes place
during the daylight hours. If we are left with plenty of outflow
boundaries, we could see some additional showers and storms Thursday
night. Prefer to keep rain chances in the 20-40% range for now, but
this may need to be adjusted upward.&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
The forecast for Friday through the upcoming weekend appears to
remain warm with a low chance for showers and storms from the Hill
Country eastward into the coastal plains. Other than daytime heating
and weak convergence along the sea breeze, we see no other source of
significant lift. Therefore, we will keep rain chances low Friday
through the weekend. Temperatures will remain above normal with
widespread highs in the 90s and overnight lows generally in the 70s.

For early next week, the subtropical ridge centered over the
southeastern U.S. expands across the northern Gulf of Mexico into the
eastern half of Texas. Above normal temperatures will continue along
with a low chance for isolated showers and storms across the coastal
plains.

The forecast for the middle portion of the upcoming work week remains
uncertain. There are some significant differences noted between the
operational GFS and ECMWF. The GFS shows a stout upper low and cold
front moving in from the west, while the ECMWF shows the subtropical
ridge holding firm. For now we will side with the ECMWF as the
subtropical ridge has been tough to dislodge recently.

[Portastorm]

They might as well issue a forecast which reads "Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 90s until further notice."

[weatherdude1108]

:uarrow:

They might as well issue a forecast which reads "Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 90s until further notice."

I know, right?! The forecasters in that office could all take a vacation. Just put the computers on autopilot.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I feel like I'm in a bad dream, and can't wake up.


https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34temp.gif



https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610prcp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/gifs/WK34prcp.gif

It’s never freaking ending.

[hriverajr]

:uarrow:

They might as well issue a forecast which reads "Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 90s until further notice."

106 outside my home here in Vegetation Dead Del Rio at the moment

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:

They might as well issue a forecast which reads "Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 90s until further notice."

106 outside my home here in Vegetation Dead Del Rio at the moment

Dude ... I'm so sorry. I think you may have rights to claim the worst of any of us right now. We sure could use some nice recurving Pacific hurricanes.

[South Texas Storms]

:uarrow:

They might as well issue a forecast which reads "Partly cloudy with highs in the upper 90s until further notice."

106 outside my home here in Vegetation Dead Del Rio at the moment

Dude ... I'm so sorry. I think you may have rights to claim the worst of any of us right now. We sure could use some nice recurving Pacific hurricanes.

The EPAC hurricanes are there...the ridge over us is just preventing them from making it up here. I'm hopeful the trough next week will move farther east like the GFS is showing, but I'm not too optimistic.

The 12z Euro and Canadian ensembles do show 1-2 inches of rain over the next 2 weeks across south central TX, which is promising!

[Brent]

about 5 rain drops earlier when I was out driving...

I'm hoping FWD is right but I'm not seeing these 60-70% pops tomorrow night and Friday

[TeamPlayersBlue]

New line of storms has popped up over west Houston. Right on cue as the feeder bands left a space for some inflow.

[somethingfunny]

It's very pleasant and breezy here in Richardson with some outflow boundaries moving in. Haven't seen any rain yet.

I hope KFWS radar comes back online soon. I had TDFW pulled up on Radarscope but forgot it has a giant blind spot... Switched over to TDAL and discovered several cells moving into the area.

[Brent]

legit rain shower here, hmmm

why does FWD pick dumb times for the radar to be down