ATL: IMELDA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

A truly awful scenario has unfolded. It goes to show you do not need an intense tropical cyclone to cause severe damage and life-threatening conditions.

its really about the water, flooding and surge..the wind gets the highlights usually but the water is what really does the damage, even with Dorian the surge is what wiped out most of those buildings

[sphelps8681]

Spread the word. Cajun Navey doing water rescues in Beaumont.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid ... =3&theater

[jasons2k]

I have no words for our friends to my east. Just awful and terrible. I've been up since about 3:30 am. Very ominous with the lightning to my north. It has been nonstop, like a strobe light. Some of the most intense and continuous lightning I have ever seen. Then the thunder started, started low and off in the distance but getting closer and closer. Line slowly creeping this way and it's starting to rain here now. Conroe ISD has cancelled schools. Just crazy!!

[jasons2k]

You can see the inflow off the Gulf on radar, and unlike yesterday, there is nothing offshore to impede it. It's like pouring gas on a fire right now.

[GCANE]

NAM forecasts it clearing out around 2100Z tonight.
HRRR at about 2300Z.

[GCANE]

First VIS sat view showing strong gravity waves in the cirrus.
Its continuing to intensify.

[GCANE]

High CAPE & high Theta-E just off shore, wrapping directly into the CoC.
Worse-case scenario.

[RBDnhm]

Local weather in BEAUMONT is reporting 20” of rain since midnight at I10 and Highway 365. I10 is shut down from BEAUMONT west. Vidor PD, just east of BEAUMONT, is reporting flooding worse than Harvey.

[South Texas Storms]

Praying for our neighbors just east of us here in Houston. Another catastrophic flood event ongoing once again this morning...just 2 years after Harvey decimated the area. Thankfully it looks like conditions should improve this afternoon.

[StormLogic]

It rained 30"+ inches in some spots in Jefferson county. IN 12 HOURS. thats 60" in 24 hr period. Basically we received half the amount of rainfall of Harvey, But in a 12 hour time span. not 2 days. IT DEFINITELY RAINED HARDER AND EXTREME THAN HARVEY. Point blank. I have never seen rain that heavy before. I'm not even kidding. 6" an hour type stuff for 30 min to an hour straight water hosing us. My house is fine, but the Garage took some water but I took care of it already. Water is receding in neighborhood already so that's a good sign. Lots of people flooded out this morning according to Facebook. I-10 between winnie and Beaumont a river again. People climbing on top 18 wheelers now in that region.

[jasons2k]

I'm concerned about tornado spin-ups on the south flank. I just stepped outside and there is some decent low-level shear. The lowest clouds are racing from north to south in these gusts, but a few thousand feet up, the line is moving ESE.

[WacoWx]

Is there any way this drops south to Houston and continues? It appears that way on radar, but I feel like at some point this sort of energy is just not sustainable?

[StormLogic]

Unfortunately It looks like we have the worst possible scenario happening right now... OH and BOY DID THEY MISS THIS BIG TIME... It's starting to intensify again. More heavy rain to come. 24"+ was called days ago, But was underestimated BIGLY!!

CAM models takes this one to the house I will remember to use CAM models for ULL disturbances that make there way into the GOM until otherwise

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=5&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=100&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=20190919012019&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=7343&y=4744

[mpic]

Have friends in Splendora taking on water..cars floating at the gas station at East River and 59. My yard is almost at Harvey levels. Lots of heavy thunder and lightning last night and literally torrential rains right now. Got a roof leak overnight and my bathroom ceiling is falling apart. And more to come? OMG

[GCANE]

[SconnieCane]

Unfortunately It looks like we have the worst possible scenario happening right now... OH and BOY DID THEY MISS THIS BIG TIME... It's starting to intensify again. More heavy rain to come. 24"+ was called days ago, But was underestimated BIGLY!!

CAM models takes this one to the house I will remember to use CAM models for ULL disturbances that make there way into the GOM until otherwise

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=5&im=18&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=100&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=20190919012019&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=full_disk&p%5B0%5D=band_13&x=7343&y=4744

When I saw the modeled rainfall totals starting to spike upwards and called Imelda a potential mini-Harvey, I didn't expect this.

[South Texas Storms]

Is there any way this drops south to Houston and continues? It appears that way on radar, but I feel like at some point this sort of energy is just not sustainable?

It will likely be moving into Houston later this morning, but it should continue to push southward. So we're not expecting to see the really significant flash flooding that areas farther east are seeing this morning. A few inches of rain in an hour or two is likely though.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/AlaStormTracker/status/1174661911809581056

[setxweathergal64]

I'm in Lumberton. My mom had 7 feet in her house for harvey. She is great now. So many people have PTSD (me included) and have had so much anxiety over this storm.

Somehow we seem to be missing the bulk of the heavy storms. They are moving southeast and by the time they take the north turn, it misses Lumberton.

I cant believe what is unfolding elsewhere. So heartbreaking

[Steve]

Unfortunately It looks like we have the worst possible scenario happening right now... OH and BOY DID THEY MISS THIS BIG TIME... It's starting to intensify again. More heavy rain to come. 24"+ was called days ago, But was underestimated *political term removed*!!

Most of the models only have ranges up to "x" unless you get super high resolution/high detail versions. European did have some 30/40" areas in SE and E TX and I think began hinting at the potential catastrophe on Saturday or Sunday.

NAM 18z picked up on the rainfall on Monday. You posted about that when we were still using the "Disturbed Weather in the Gulf" thread. RGEM was the one mesoscale (I think it's associated with the Canadian/GEM suite in some way) that spun this up from back as far as Saturday. Canadian also had moments when it showed a bunch of rain and also began Saturday afternoon showing the threat to the coast. The US Model was purples instead of yellows in most of its runs, but it may have indicated the threat in a couple of them. GFS as recent as yesterday's 00Z run had maybe 2-4.5". That's pretty weak but obviously the mesoscales are better at this kind of thing than the globals.