ENSO Updates (2007 thru 2023)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- StruThiO
- Category 3
- Posts: 821
- Age: 24
- Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
- Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.
Re: ENSO Updates
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139710
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO: CPC 9/12/19 September update: Neutral thru Spring
The CPC September update has Neutral conditions lasting thru Spring 2020.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO)
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 September 2019
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2019 (~75% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (55-60% chance).
During August, ENSO-neutral continued as reflected by near-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño-3 and Niño-3.4 indices were -0.2°C and 0.0°C, respectively, with the westernmost Niño-4 region index remaining above average (0.5°C) and the easternmost Niño-1+2 region index remaining below average (-0.6°C; [Fig. 2]). Upper-ocean subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) decreased slightly during the month [Fig. 3], with below-average temperatures strengthening in the east-central equatorial Pacific [Fig. 4]. Suppressed tropical convection continued over parts of Indonesia, while near-average convection was evident near the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Low-level and upper-level winds were near average over most of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Overall, oceanic and atmospheric conditions were consistent with ENSO-neutral.
The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] continue to favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere spring. Interestingly, the statistical model averages favor Niño-3.4 values above the El Niño threshold (+0.5°C) during the fall and winter, while the dynamical model average indicates values near +0.2°C. Forecasters are leaning toward the dynamical model average, which is also supported by the current tendency of the ocean toward cooler conditions. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2019 (~75% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (55-60% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
12 September 2019
ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active
Synopsis: ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2019 (~75% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (55-60% chance).
During August, ENSO-neutral continued as reflected by near-average sea surface temperatures (SST) across most of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean [Fig. 1]. The latest weekly Niño-3 and Niño-3.4 indices were -0.2°C and 0.0°C, respectively, with the westernmost Niño-4 region index remaining above average (0.5°C) and the easternmost Niño-1+2 region index remaining below average (-0.6°C; [Fig. 2]). Upper-ocean subsurface temperature anomalies (averaged across 180°-100°W) decreased slightly during the month [Fig. 3], with below-average temperatures strengthening in the east-central equatorial Pacific [Fig. 4]. Suppressed tropical convection continued over parts of Indonesia, while near-average convection was evident near the Date Line [Fig. 5]. Low-level and upper-level winds were near average over most of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Overall, oceanic and atmospheric conditions were consistent with ENSO-neutral.
The majority of models in the IRI/CPC plume [Fig. 6] continue to favor ENSO-neutral (Niño-3.4 index between -0.5°C and +0.5°C) through the Northern Hemisphere spring. Interestingly, the statistical model averages favor Niño-3.4 values above the El Niño threshold (+0.5°C) during the fall and winter, while the dynamical model average indicates values near +0.2°C. Forecasters are leaning toward the dynamical model average, which is also supported by the current tendency of the ocean toward cooler conditions. In summary, ENSO-neutral is favored during the Northern Hemisphere fall 2019 (~75% chance), continuing through spring 2020 (55-60% chance; click CPC/IRI consensus forecast for the chance of each outcome for each 3-month period).
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... disc.shtml
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO: CPC 9/12/19 September update: Neutral thru Spring
SOI continues to depict the atmosphere in El Nino with the 30 day down to -10.70 and more importantly the 90 day, which is at -8.70. If this continues to persist into October and November, I would say some areas in the CONUS can expect an El Nino winter pattern.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139710
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ENSO: CPC 9/12/19 September update: Neutral thru Spring
If that keeps up,then no El Niño will show up for the 2020 Summer and if so,it has important implications to the Atlantic and EPAC hurricane seasons.
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- CyclonicFury
- Category 5
- Posts: 1977
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
- Location: NC
- Contact:
Re: ENSO: CPC 9/12/19 September update: Neutral thru Spring
cycloneye wrote::uarrow: If that keeps up,then no El Niño will show up for the 2020 Summer and if so,it has important implications to the Atlantic and EPAC hurricane seasons.
It's possible, but after all the Nino busts we've had in recent years, I'm skeptical. Models were in great agreement El Nino would persist into the summer/fall this year and instead we are at cool neutral. However, the atmosphere is more El Nino like than La Nina like, so that's something to watch this winter.
4 likes
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- GeneratorPower
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1648
- Age: 44
- Joined: Sun Dec 18, 2005 11:48 pm
- Location: Huntsville, AL
Re: ENSO: CPC 9/12/19 September update: Neutral thru Spring
Still...the forecasts aren’t exactly “Switzerland” neutral. They are tilted warm. We shall see. I think a warm bias exists in all these ENSO models.
0 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO: CPC 9/12/19 September update: Neutral thru Spring
StruThiO wrote:What to make of all this
[url]https://i.imgur.com/sllORaU.png[url]
[url]https://i.imgur.com/Lz7smkr.png[url]
[url]https://i.imgur.com/p6Pjlow.png[url]
[url]https://i.imgur.com/VDktLb7.png[url]
[url]https://i.imgur.com/Dk28f2K.png[url]
[url]https://i.imgur.com/102Q957.png[url]
Ocean wants a La Nina while the atmosphere continues to push for El Nino. I've only been tracking ENSO for a limited time (5-6 years) but this years ENSO event has been abnormal in my opinion. We still have a good 45 days of hurricane season left so it won't be too long to see how this years setup affected the hurricane seasons in the Pacific and Atlantic.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- StruThiO
- Category 3
- Posts: 821
- Age: 24
- Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
- Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.
Re: ENSO: CPC 9/12/19 September update: Neutral thru Spring
Kingarabian wrote:Ocean wants a La Nina while the atmosphere continues to push for El Nino. I've only been tracking ENSO for a limited time (5-6 years) but this years ENSO event has been abnormal in my opinion. We still have a good 45 days of hurricane season left so it won't be too long to see how this years setup affected the hurricane seasons in the Pacific and Atlantic.
The disconnect between solidly negative SOI and very well defined +IOD and +PDO patterns superimposed on the cooling equatorial Pacific east of the Antimeridian sure is a head scratcher to me, too. Meanwhile robust Maritime Continent subsidence continues, however, convection is no longer enhanced over the Dateline.
1 likes
- StruThiO
- Category 3
- Posts: 821
- Age: 24
- Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
- Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.
Re: ENSO: CPC 9/12/19 September update: Neutral thru Spring
Upwelling Kelvin wave activity continues to carve out cool anomalies in the eastern Pacific
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 4806
- Age: 40
- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:54 pm
- Location: South Florida
Re: ENSO: CPC 9/12/19 September update: Neutral thru Spring
StruThiO wrote:Upwelling Kelvin wave activity continues to carve out cool anomalies in the eastern Pacific
[imi.imgur.com/7Zz6ced.png[/img]
Just want to make sure I get this right, but upwelling Kelvin wave promotes cooler anomalies correct?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
0 likes
Re: ENSO: CPC 9/12/19 September update: Neutral thru Spring
WeatherEmperor wrote:StruThiO wrote:Upwelling Kelvin wave activity continues to carve out cool anomalies in the eastern Pacific
[imi.imgur.com/7Zz6ced.png[/url]
Just want to make sure I get this right, but upwelling Kelvin wave promotes cooler anomalies correct?
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The upwelling phase of a Kelvin wave brings cooler waters from deeper parts of the ocean and mixes them with the warmer surface waters. This causes cooler SST anomalies
0 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO Updates
Well ENSO is broken this year so this is the cherry on top.
2 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- CyclonicFury
- Category 5
- Posts: 1977
- Age: 25
- Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 12:32 pm
- Location: NC
- Contact:
Re: ENSO Updates
And just like that the CFS has shifted back to a weak La Niña for winter. It cannot make up its mind. A continuation of ENSO-neutral through spring seems the most likely, IMO.
2 likes
NCSU B.S. in Meteorology Class of 2021. Tropical weather blogger at http://www.cyclonicfury.com. My forecasts and thoughts are NOT official, for official forecasts please consult the National Hurricane Center.
- StruThiO
- Category 3
- Posts: 821
- Age: 24
- Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
- Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.
Re: ENSO Updates
Saw this article earlier, sorry if it was posted previously.
https://weather.com/en-IN/india/monsoon/news/2019-09-16-2019-to-be-one-of-strongest-iod-years-on-record-expert
IOD seems to be intimately related to ENSO, so figured it'd be good to post here
https://weather.com/en-IN/india/monsoon/news/2019-09-16-2019-to-be-one-of-strongest-iod-years-on-record-expert
IOD seems to be intimately related to ENSO, so figured it'd be good to post here
2 likes
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 15462
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ENSO Updates
CyclonicFury wrote:And just like that the CFS has shifted back to a weak La Niña for winter. It cannot make up its mind. A continuation of ENSO-neutral through spring seems the most likely, IMO.
SOI also has big impacts on CONUS winter. I'm pretty sure Joe Basatrdi is loving it right now and it may help his call for a Modoki El Nino winter.
2 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
Re: ENSO Updates
Kingarabian wrote:CyclonicFury wrote:And just like that the CFS has shifted back to a weak La Niña for winter. It cannot make up its mind. A continuation of ENSO-neutral through spring seems the most likely, IMO.
SOI also has big impacts on CONUS winter. I'm pretty sure Joe Basatrdi is loving it right now and it may help his call for a Modoki El Nino winter.
Though the Far Eastern Pacific is more cold neutral (for now) if taken into the entire tropical template of the globe, it is very reminiscent of a modoki event. It explains the discourse between the SOI and eastern tropical Pacific. MC is too cold for an atmospheric Nina, they are canceling each other out.
5 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: Beef Stew, cajungal, Google Adsense [Bot], Killjoy12, mitchell, RomP, StPeteMike, Stratton23, WiscoWx02 and 45 guests