ATL: JERRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#321 Postby Abdullah » Thu Sep 19, 2019 5:47 pm

Eye form when???
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#322 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 19, 2019 5:49 pm

I say its up to 100mph..
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#323 Postby BlowHard » Thu Sep 19, 2019 6:09 pm

gatorcane wrote:I would say it has a 99.9999% chance of not impacting the CONUS and probably will end up a fish storm. Too much troughiness.


There are a whole lot of people who cannot write off this storm even if it DOES miss the CONUS. Try to remember about them, ok?
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#324 Postby msbee » Thu Sep 19, 2019 6:14 pm

BlowHard wrote:
gatorcane wrote:I would say it has a 99.9999% chance of not impacting the CONUS and probably will end up a fish storm. Too much troughiness.


There are a whole lot of people who cannot write off this storm even if it DOES miss the CONUS. Try to remember about them, ok?

Thank you
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#325 Postby Hammy » Thu Sep 19, 2019 6:31 pm

Image
Image

Eye closer to the edge than earlier thanks to the shear, but at the same time there's more convection west of the main circulation and the overall area is larger, so there's no evident dry air intrusion either.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#326 Postby cjrciadt » Thu Sep 19, 2019 7:00 pm

Below 980mn per new recon
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#327 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 19, 2019 7:03 pm

Looks like Jerry is a category 2 now. Both flight level winds and SMFR support that intensity.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#328 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 19, 2019 7:03 pm

yeah 100 mph sounds about right.

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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#329 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 19, 2019 7:04 pm

Some high level shear making it look all funny.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#330 Postby Highteeld » Thu Sep 19, 2019 7:06 pm

974.9mb extrap, 97 kt FL, multiple 85 kt SFMR unflagged. Should get an upgrade.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#331 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Sep 19, 2019 7:08 pm

:uarrow: I've said it before, seems like every storm even if its path is pretty well modeled has some kind of trick up its sleeve. Jerry's is bombing like I've never seen while so obviously being affected by shear.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#332 Postby Highteeld » Thu Sep 19, 2019 7:13 pm

978 mb splash with 25 kt wind would suggest 975-976 mb for the actual center.
Image
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#333 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Sep 19, 2019 7:20 pm

Highteeld wrote:978 mb splash with 25 kt wind would suggest 975-976 mb for the actual center.
https://cyclonicwx.com/data/recon/JERRY_AF304_0310A_vdm_234520.png


Yeah likely 975.

and the gulfstream flight is showing lighter shear out ahead of it. so we may see even more deepening overnight.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#334 Postby Highteeld » Thu Sep 19, 2019 7:29 pm

atcf 976/85kt
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#335 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 19, 2019 7:42 pm

Location: 17.7°N 56.5°W
Maximum Winds: 85 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 976 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 100 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 10 NM
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#336 Postby StruThiO » Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:23 pm

95 kt SFMR unflagged
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#337 Postby hipshot » Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:30 pm

StruThiO wrote:95 kt SFMR unflagged


Hell, that's darn near a cat 3!
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#338 Postby Highteeld » Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:35 pm

Latest pass reveals the storm is still strengthening. Eye is slightly warmer and extrap pressure down about .4 mb. Two SFMR @ 95 knots, 1 unflagged.

Image
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#339 Postby GrayLancer18 » Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:40 pm

How long does it still have before encountering the shear?

Thinking if it will attain major status before so.
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Re: ATL: JERRY - Hurricane - Discussion

#340 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Sep 19, 2019 8:43 pm

Nawtamet wrote:How long does it still have before encountering the shear?

Thinking if it will attain major status before so.


That is likely by early tomorrow. Given its tiny size, it may unravel quite rapidly if shear is as strong as advertised.
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